• Hermano_Lobo
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Thai-Khun International
I comment on politics, art, music and literature. Science fiction and films. Satire is my style, 'They' have probably got me on file. I have worked in aviation for many years. My hobbies are writing,
Permalink : http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/yurivelasquez
Saturday , May 10 , 2008
Financial Pain in Spain: Could it happen to ex-pats in Thailand ? Holidaymakers are now finding things expensive - Heed the words of British Airways Boss Willie Walsh !
Posted by Hermano_Lobo , Reader : 598 , 19:21:20  
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comment 14
Hermano_Lobo date : 27/05/2008 time : 00.51
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/yurivelasquez

For some reason the text is not appearing on some computers !

I repeat it here:-

Financial Gain in Spain is now a real pain

EVERY year nearly 60,000 quit Britain to move to Spain, dreaming of golden beaches, blue skies and jugs of sangria.

But in recent months life in the sun-kissed paradise has turned to purgatory.

Punishing exchange rates have left many counting the cost of life on the Spanish Costas.

In the past year the British Pound has plunged almost 12 PER CENT against the Euro - and ex-pats on fixed incomes such as British pensions are severely out of pocket as a result.

To add to the misery, Spanish house values have fallen by 20 PER CENT in some areas - which is terrible news for the thousands who want to come home but cannot find a buyer or cannot afford to sell.

Hundreds more also face the prospect of bulldozers moving in on "illegal" homes which breach local planning laws.

In the Costa Blanca, For Sale signs have sprung up in every street.

Some tragic couples are even being forced to sell their furniture for spot cash to keep the creditors at bay.

Article adapted from The Sun.

Could it happen in Thailand?

Could you substitute the word Thailand for Spain in the article above ?


Prices in Thailand are certainly going up. The Baht is much stronger against the pound than it has been of late. The International rate stands at 62.3 THB to the UK pound. It didn't seem long ago it was 75+ THB to the pound.


Are Thai property prices doing or about to do the same as Spain ?

Are ex-pats in Thailand about to go through the Spanish experience ?

And now holidaymakers are feeling the pinch !

Travel firms putting the squeeze on foreign holidays

Shoppers reeling from the credit crunch are now being hit by soaring summer holiday prices.


A shake-up of the UK holiday industry has led to more than a million fewer beds, with popular destinations such as Spain, Portugal and Egypt costing up to 12 per cent more.


One travel agency chain advised holidaymakers to shift their main fortnight break to the winter when there are bargains to long-haul destinations.


The Co-op Travel group predicted 1.25million fewer breaks compared to last year. Mergers between tour giants Thomas Cook and MyTravel and Thomson and First Choice have led to a drop in flights and hotels. In November, Thomson's parent company TUI announced 12 per cent of cuts while Thomas Cook slashed the former MyTravel holiday programme by around 23 per cent. Mike Greenacre, boss of Co-op Travel Trading Group, said: "Holidaymakers have got used to having plenty of holidays to choose from, which has fuelled the growth of late breaks.



"We are predicting a shortage of package holidays this summer, particularly to favourite destinations."


Research by the Co-op, based on sales of three million holidays, shows that average prices for summer 2008 have risen by almost three per cent.


Popular places such as Greece and Turkey are up nine per cent, Spain and Portugal up eight per cent, Egypt up 12 per cent and Malta up 10 per cent.


But the cost of a winter holiday on the Caribbean island of Antigua is down by 18 per cent from £2,126 a head last year to £1,744 this year.


A winter holiday in Dubai is down 13 per cent and in the Egyptian resort of Taba, it is down 12 per cent.


Daily Mirror 24-05-08


And what will be the effect on Thailand ?


Only Chinese, Korean and Russian tourists?


Era of cheap flights is over says British Airways boss as price of oil soars
British Airways' boss Willie Walsh has said the golden age of cheap travel is 'over' as airlines face spiraling fuel prices.

He said that passengers now face a bleak future of higher fares and surcharges levied to cover the rising cost of oil.

Mr Walsh warned many airlines will go bust or be forced to merge.

He predicted that the death-knell would sound for smaller no-frills budget airlines, led by the likes of Ryanair and easyJet, which have boomed with headline-grabbing cut-price deals as low as £1 plus taxes.

Passenger groups fear travellers will increasingly be hit with extra charges - such as paying for luggage, paying to check-in, paying for seat reservations and paying for in-flight meals, as is already happening on some airlines.

For millions of Britons, it could spell the end of popular cheap weekend city breaks to places such as Barcelona, Prague or Turin.

Asked if the market of 'crazy' £35 ticket prices for weekend breaks was coming to an end, Mr Walsh said: 'My view is yes. I don't think the industry can absorb the significant increases (in fuel costs). The industry has no future if it doesn't price in its costs. This is about survival.

'The era of very low fares is behind us. It is clear that there are many airlines out there which are struggling today to survive.'

Speaking in Houston, Texas, the BA chief executive said a lot of airlines would ground planes and axe services.

'We are going to see more airlines fail and that will take capacity out,' he said. 'I think at some point demand will be affected by the increased prices.'

As if to underline the deepening crisis, shares in British-based business airline Silverjet were suspended yesterday as a promised £12million cash bailout stalled.

Business class only airlines Maxjet and EOS have already gone bust, along with London to Hong Kong budget carrier Oasis.

Mr Walsh has confirmed that as well as raising its fares, BA will cut thousands of flights this winter as it drops less profitable routes. He also declined to rule out an increase in fuel surcharges.

'It could be (a rise in fares), it could be surcharges or it could be a combination of both,' he said.

His comments came as the price of crude oil this week reached a new record high above $135 a barrel.
Motorists are being hit with record prices at the pumps and fuel protesters plan action in London on Tuesday.
The soaring oil price raised the prospect of a £700-a-year rise in fuel bills for the average family.
The Government has admitted that Britain is in the grip of an economic crisis. Trade minister Baroness Vadera said on Thursday that the nation is facing a 'very testing period'.

Business leaders warned that companies are being pushed 'to the absolute edge'.

BA last week unveiled record annual profits of £883million, but analysts warned that the soaring cost of fuel could wipe out profits this year. Its fuel bill topped

£2.1billion last year and is likely to hit £3billion this year - accounting for more than a quarter of its total costs.

Earlier this month, BA boosted its fuel surcharges. The highest rise of £30, applying to long-haul flights of more than nine hours, rocketed from £128 to £158 for a return trip.



Mr Walsh said families will also be hit hard when the Government introduces its controversial new cash-raising 'green' tax on airline flights from November next year.



He said it will add £500 to a family holiday, but is designed to swell Treasury coffers rather than save the planet.



American Airlines is to be the first major scheduled airline to charge passengers for baggage. It is imposing a £7.50 each-way charge for the first item and £12.50 each way for a second, with a third bag possibly costing £50 on domestic U.S. routes.



Daily Mail 24-05-08
comment 13
Hermano_Lobo date : 25/05/2008 time : 02.49
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/yurivelasquez

Oil is now being 'traded' - instead of being used to drive cars or fly aeroplanes.
Even though he was wrongly blamed for the Terminal 5 fiasco - heed the words of Willie Walsh.
The day of the frequent tourist may be over !
comment 12
Hermano_Lobo date : 17/05/2008 time : 20.15
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/yurivelasquez

Spanish investors 'may lose money'

More than 1,000 Britons could lose money they have invested in Spanish property, a UK law firm has warned.

Jose Maria De Lorenzo, a partner in the Marbella office of Irwin Mitchell, gave the warning after Spanish Property Company San Jose Inversiones announced it was going into administration.

He said the move, known in Spain as 'concurso de acreedores voluntario', could leave as many as 1,500 British investors who had paid deposits to the company unable to complete on their property.

He added: "Once the application to the court for 'Concurso' is accepted and notified by the judges, which we expect to happen very shortly, buyers should be extremely vigilant as there will only be a month to become included in the proceedings.

"Given the amount of documentation that will need to be filed within this time, including the document of representation that people will need to prepare themselves, those affected will need to act quickly to ensure they are not left out of the list of creditors."

But a spokesman for San Jose Inversiones, whose properties include large golf developments in Murcia and the Costa Blanca, said the court application would protect its assets and its clients' deposits while allowing work to continue on two new building projects.

He said: "The well reported credit crunch in the finance industry and its effect on the construction business has affected our cash flow which has restricted progress on two projects.

"As a consequence voluntary administration proceedings were considered as the best financial alternative to overcome the present situation and guarantee the future of both companies.

"Both companies can confirm that the down payments paid by each client are fully recognised by the courts; they acquire the conditions of creditor and are protected under the law.

"The court will send a personal communication to each client in order to confirm the down payments made."
comment 11
Pomjuk date : 13/05/2008 time : 08.06
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/pomjuk

European countries are having a slowdown. My feeling is the ECB will start reducing the interest rates soon. And as the interest rate gap between the US and the European Union is reduced, the Euro will start to find a new equilibrium at a lower rate than it used to be.

Will it crash?……No it will not.

If you are interested in purchasing a house in Spain wait till next year. It will be well worth it. Well if you’re willing to keep it for at least 10 year.

I personally am not a Son worshiper and I hate the heat and the humidity. So Florence, Venice, Paris and anywhere north is my kind of town. Ironically I’ve been looking for a house in Honolulu for about a year. And I think now it is the time to buy in the US too, since the interest rate will start coming up soon even though the price of the real estate should come down a bit more next year, but that will not make up for the raising mortgage rate.
comment 10
Hermano_Lobo date : 12/05/2008 time : 19.15
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/yurivelasquez

My friends in Portugal tell me that their economy is done and out.

Spain has a lot of unemployment and a lot of debt. Property prices are falling.

France is riven with bureaucracy.

Italy is a basket case.

Greece is well , err Greece.

Germany makes and sells cars as long as people are buying them.

The Euro is becoming strong because of the weakness of the Dollar.

With those countries in reality not doing so well.

What is backing the Euro to give it strength ?

Will it 'crash' in the autumn ?
comment 9
Ian date : 12/05/2008 time : 10.44
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

DKO, I also have lost money on currency movements this year, and rather like you it was caused by delays in transactions. Fortunately it was only about 20,000 Baht, so irritating rather than a disaster.
I am now debating whether to transfer more funds at the present poor exchange rate, or scrape along on my present Baht holdings and hope the rate improves. Fortunately I don't have a hi-so life style:-)
comment 8
wch date : 12/05/2008 time : 09.00

Most of spender's money are appreciating together.
Only dollar is depreciating.
comment 7
DKO date : 11/05/2008 time : 20.49
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/DKO

Having come from Costa Blanca 2 years ago (lived in Torrevieja area for 4 years).

I sold my Spanish house after 18 months. Initial realistic asking price 220,000 Euros (bank valued it 239,000 Euros for a re-mortgage a year earlier). I sold it for 167,000 Euros (much more than a 20% drop in price).

I was admired and congratulated that I had sold it at all and for so much by the Lawyers and local Authority doing the sale paperwork.

Nobody can sell there. Rent prices are rock bottom.

The baht has devalued about 11% since 6th December and I got well and truly sandwiched.

Sold 28th Nov 2007. Moved all the money to my UK account 4th Dec 2007 at a good Euro to GBP rate (at that time). I was expecting to be able to get the going rate of about 68.42 Baht to 1 GBP when I transferred to Thailand in a few weeks..

I came back to sort out the BOT 30% withholding to make sure I did not have it removed.

6th December Bank of England drops interest rates due to sub prime worries. Panic sets in and GBP crashes. I got back to Thailand 10th December. With Xmas & New Year coming and not realising what was about to happen or the severity, I delayed moving 70,000 GBP until the New Year expecting it to improve

I sought advice on the prospects for the GBP. A few said it tends to rally at end of each Jan so wait BUT MOST suggested dire warnings.

I decided to move it (cut my losses). A mistake by my UK bank caused a 10 day delay instead of the expected 6 (weekend in middle). I got a rate on the 16th Jan 08 of 64.553 Baht to 1 GBP.

I got 4,518,870 baht. (28th November it had been worth 4,789,400 baht ) HOW to lose 270,000 Baht in 6 weeks

For me that was a LOT of money, because outside my early pension (I'm 56) all my assets were in the house.

That money was used as a gift for my wife so she could buy land, to pay for building our new house on it and get a pickup. There is little capital left form the house sale now.

The tragedy was my buyer stalled for 3 whole months. Had he stalled only 2 months I would have beaten the drop. Had he stalled by an additional 2 weeks the GBP would have crashed compared to the Euro. I could have bought much more GBPs and offset the drop in GBP to the Baht.

God or whoever really was not on my side with this house sale. Well maybe he was in a small way (or maybe my “cut my losses” decision was a good call, because if I had waited and moved my money now I would have lost a FURTHER 181,000 baht.

Coming back to the main subject to the Blog again. Thailand has a long way to go on prices to catch Spanish house prices (even after the house price collapse in Spain) and Thailand although getting more expensive is still very cheap compared to Spain (except cars and air cons, liquid soap to name a few) unless you live in the Thailand hot-spots of Phuket, Pattaya and Bangkok.

I do not know how much longer the Baht can maintain its surprising strength, but even if this continues I cannot see the GBP remaining this low compared to the Baht when we get into 2009. The Euro however, I feel is near its peek and is overvalued and it will slide as the GBP has (but nowhere near as much –safety in numbers and size of the member countries – shame the UK felt best “as usual” to go it alone and stay out of the Euro.)

I should mention I am NO economist and am basing my views in the last sentence on what I have observed and picked up on the money TV channels in the last 5 months.
comment 6
Ian date : 11/05/2008 time : 17.15
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

I feel that both the Baht and the Euro are overvalued at the moment. As to the dollar recovering I think a lot will depend upon how China plays her massive dollar reserves.
However, a joker in the deck with all this, is the havoc played by natural disaster, the world has become very sensitive to accidents in the supply of oil and food.
comment 5
Pomjuk date : 11/05/2008 time : 15.33
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/pomjuk

My next chain of thought is telling me that the oil and commodity prices should be coming down then too.
comment 4
Pomjuk date : 11/05/2008 time : 15.14
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/pomjuk

I think the US is going to be in the inflation fighting mode again in 2009, so the interest rate is coming back up and King Dollar will be coming back in 2009 and Euro will be weaker then too.
comment 3
Pomjuk date : 11/05/2008 time : 14.37
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/pomjuk

Exacta mundo amigo! I was thinking the same about the real estate in Spain. If I were closer to the retirement age, it would have been the time to get into the Spanish real estate market. Euro should be coming down pretty soon since there are now some signs of economic slow down and the ECB may be thinking of lower the underline interest rate some time in the near future. So there you go 20% off on the price and at lower the interest rate should be coming soon.

The value of Baht should be much much lower now that the stagflation risk is looming we may be able to export our way out of the economic double jeopardy.
comment 2
Dalmasian date : 10/05/2008 time : 22.02
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/dalmasian

So far, property prices in Bangkok seems to be holding up quite well, at least on the surface. Developers do not seem to be in a hurry to cut their high asking prices in order to move their new-built condos and houses.

And yet I know for a fact that many properties are vacant and not occupied. One developer friend of mine told me that we cannot believe all of the ads in the papers claiming that units in such and such a new condo have nearly all been booked ot sold. He said that the it is a standard trick made by these developers to set up small companies that book or buy up many of the units to create a false impression that the condo is selling very well. In fact, these "paper" companies will turn around and try to flip or resell their units at the first opportunity.

I don't know if this is true or not. But surely, the economy in Thailand is not doing well and yet why are there so many people buying condos and houses?

-- Dalmasian
comment 1
MakubeX date : 10/05/2008 time : 21.18
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/babylon

Well, if by expats you mean the Brits and the Americans, then it could be the case but since foreign ownership of businesses and properties is restricted, that won't figure so much in the equation.

So the main effect will be on tourism from these two countries, but I think some of the effects can be offset by the fact that the euro has strengthened considerably against the baht (from about 44 baht per euro this time last year to around 49/50 now), so many from the Eurozone might consider Thailand to be more of a bargain than previously.
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