Like mushrooms sprouting after the rains, there is presently much speculation about new parties poised to make an entrance to the political landscape. Like mushroom spores, some parties will fail to develop, some will turn toxic and only a few will thrive.

Of all the scenarios for new parties, the alliance between Pracharaj Party leader Snoh Thienthong and faction leader Newin Chidchob has the highest potential to burst into the scene as a powerful force to reckon.

The Snoh-Newin alliance has been deepening since the January by-election but surprisingly attracted scant attention from the public.

In the by-election race, the faction openly fielded two candidates and gave the blessing to the other two. All four won under the Pracharaj banner.

For the upcoming censure debate, Snoh colluded with Newin to turn his back on the opposition bench by refusing to sponsor the motion of no confidence.

He even went out of his way to convince the Puea Pandin Party’s splinter group under his ally Pracha Promnok not to get involved in the censure debate.

Snoh with 10 House seats and Pracha with 12 House seats have been sending out a crystal clear signal that they are ready to jump on the bandwagon led by Newin.

As Newin has adopted the Bhum Jai Thai Party banner via his newly-formed allinace with faction leader Somsak Thepsuthin, it is unclear at this juncture whether a party merger will take place or whether Snoh and Pracha would keep separate banners.

Regardless of the form or name of the new party, the Snoh-Newin alliance will definitely play a pivotal role at the next general election.

Under concerted efforts, Newin and Snoh are working hard to poach incumbent MPs from Pheu Thai Party, particularly those from Northeastern constituencies.

With ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra embroiled in his predicament, Newin and Snoh stand a good chance to win the loyalty of Pheu Thai MPs who at the polls, might opt for party-hopping in order to join the coalition bandwagon.

With 32 House seats filled by Bhum Jai Thai MPs, Newin has already outpaced the Chart Thai Pattana Party which has 25 seats. If things work out according to plan, he will certainly become a most powerful partner in the Democrat-led coalition after the next election.

It is no wonder that banned party leader Banharn Silapa-archa has recently been making a lot of strange noises, seen by many as an attempt to flex his power over the coalition. Banharn wants perhaps to stay in the limelight as long as he could now that he is about to be eclipsed by foe-turned-friend Newin.

Barring no political catastrophe happen before the general election the Democrat Party will likely retain its coalition leadership. But the composition of the coalition partners might vary in accordance with the shifting landscape.

The launch of political reform is expected to reshape Thai politics. Talks about new parties are the way veteran and aspiring politicians jockeying for a best position to grab power.

Key players want to have a say in the restructuring of the political system as well as to ensure reaping the benefits of the reform.

After facing two rounds of punishment by party dissolution, the Pheu Thai Party is like a wounded giant waiting to be finished off by vultures. Most of the scenarios to form new parties have been designed to lure Pheu Thai remnants as a short-cut for party building.

The idea of scavenging from the Pheu Thai Party carcass may not be very realistic because the main opposition party is far from being on its dead bed. And this is the reason why many scenarios for party forming will flop rather than thrive.

The Newin-Snoh alliance has taken the lead to use Pheu Thai as springboard.

Coup leaders appear to be following the lead of the Newin-Snoh alliance in using Pheu Thai as springboard. They have been circulating the "noble" idea of political cleansing by forming the military-backed party. They hope to attract incumbent MPs, mainly from Pheu Thai, to their party’s fold.

Aides claim that junta leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin might make a foray into politics. Sonthi has rigorously denied such claim, however.

Regardless of Sonthi’s involvement, the idea of linking the new party to the military is downright stupid and harmful to the political system.

Past military strongmen tried but failed to cling to power by forming the party. Field Marshal Plaek Pibulsonggram, Field Marshal Thanom Kittikachorn and General Suchinda Klaprayoon should provide enough examples of how the party would become toxic instead of cleaning up politics.

Another version of the military-linked party is the installation of a civilian like former deputy prime minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula as the leader.

This scenario is still in the early stage. The crucial issue is whether Pridiyathorn and other leading figures are willing and ready to become the political figurehead.

The details about military-linked party has been floated right after the 2006 coup and rehashed during the Surayud Chulanont government. Talks are being recirculated and there is no visible headway made.

One of the key scenarios is for the People’s Alliance for Democracy to form the new party. The idea has been around for a couple of years. PAD leaders have been testing the water time and again about transforming the mass movement triggered by street protests into the political party.

The problem is none of the PAD leaders have been able to draw a firm conclusion on whether they should focus on building civil society or to shift attention to party buliding.

If they opt for party building, then the nagging issue is what the new party should aspire for. The PAD continues to toy with the idea of "new politics", the definition of which keeps changing.

The debate about new political parties will likely continue on but no tangible conclusion expected before the next election.