Is History Going to Repeat Itself?

Published on September 14, 2009

We'll have a couple of days before us when we arrive at the third anniversary of the September 19, 2009 military coup. During that time, then prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was making his overseas trip. He attended the Asia-Europe meeting in Finland. He and his entourage stopped over in Cancun, Mexico, before heading to New York to deliver a speech at the United Nations. About 200 pieces of the Shinawatra family's luggage had already been shipped to London.

There had been rumours of a coup before Thaksin left Bangkok. But Thaksin brushed the rumours aside. A coup was almost impossible. He had consolidated most of his political base and was on his way to become the most powerful leader in post-World War II. He had Parliament in his pocket. The police was under his domain. More than half of the military backed him. The bureaucrats threw their support at him. He also had 14 million votes, mostly in the North and Northeast, in his hand due to the magic of his populist policy.

Only if Thaksin could cross over Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, the president of the Privy Council, so that he could emerge as a new Ammat, if not a Peron-style popular leader.

Thaksin had been on a collision course againt Gen Prem, accusing him of acting as a "charismatic person who musters power beyond the Constitution." He could not reshuffle the military list according to his wish.

On the streets around the Government House, the Yellow Shirted protesters under the People's Alliance for Democracy were demanding Thaksin's unconditional resignation. Thaksin's pocketing US$2 billion from the sale of his Shin Corp to Temasek Holding of Singapore reignited the middle-class dissent against his business interest. Thaksin caved in by dissolving Parliament in the first half of the year. His party Thai Rak Thai won the election again, with some election legal problems. The judges were out to mediate the most polarised political conflict in modern time. The Yellow Shirts hoped that a coup would do away with Thaksin and create a new platform for New Politics.

And a coup did happen. It was staged by Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the army chief, as the nomimal head.

Gen Sonthi used to be a subordinate to Gen Surayuth Chulnanont, a former army chief and a member of the Privy Council. Gen Surayuth was an ally with Gen Prem.

But we have to be careful when we talk about the Privy Council. It is a separate entity from the Monarchy. Similarly, the Crown Property Bureau is a separate entity from the Monarchy. For this reason, the Privy Council or the Crown Property Bureau are not the Monarchy. Many people get confused by associating the Privy Council and the Crown Property Bureau with the Monarchy.

To maintain his ultimate impartiality, His Majesty the King does not associate himself with any institutions or organisations. They have the right to give him counsel. But the King also has his prerogative to listen to or not to listen to their advice. In the end, only his Royal signature matters. And because he stays above the conflict, his impartiality has come to gain respect from the people.

When Thaksin heard about the coup from his Grand Hyatt New York, he was shocked. Many of his military friends had warned him about the coup before, but he did not believe them. He trusted the intelligence information supplied to him by the police, who discounted a possibility of the coup.

He urged his military allies at home to fight back. There was a confrontation throughout the day between Gen Sonthi-led army and the military ally of Thaksin in Bangkok. They were ready to shoot at each other. Thaksin planned to go to the UN forum to denounce the coup at home. When worst came to worst, he would form a government in exile. Many countries would recognise his government in exile.

In the end, Thaksin's military ally was neutralised. Thaksin's attempt to appear at the UN to woo for international support for his cause was blocked.

The Monarchy did not approve the military coup because it went out of the norm, created instablity and could go out of control. Thaksin's allies could not prevail against the coup makers. But as the country could not remain in a void, His Majesty the King was obliged to ink his signature in support of the military coup. The country had to move on.

(To be continued)

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The People's Alliance for Democracy yesterday warned that former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra would resort to violence to try to destroy the government.

Suriyasai Katasila, secretary-general of the PAD's New Politics Party, said Thaksin was expected to mobilise all of his men, including those in uniform, to try to topple the government not long after the red shirts start their rally on Saturday, the third anniversary of the coup that ousted Thaksin.

Security agencies would also need to monitor the situation outside the rally ground, as Thaksin would use his network to stage a disturbance near the rally so that the violence could escalate until the government collapses.

The pro-Thaksin movement is expected to gather at the Royal Plaza, Government House and possibly the residence of Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda, he said.

Thaksin apparently realises that Saturday's rally would be his last chance to overthrow the government, he said.

If Thaksin fails this time, it will be harder to force out the Democrat-led government and it might complete its term. Thaksin could be convicted in other cases and his network could eventually disintegrate, he said.

Thaksin would have to use his network to carry out underground operations to try to oust the government because it is expected that the people joining the rally would not be enough to depose the government, he said.

The rifts among the red-shirt leaders would result in a low turnout, he said.

The red shirts were divided into two groups - the three buddies or Veera Musigapong, Natthawut Saikua and Jatuporn Prompan on one side, and Jakrapob Penkair and his allies on the other, he said.

The three buddies want to take revenge for Thaksin while Jakrapob is seeking change to the ruling system, he said.

Thaksin is now a fugitive in exile.

Senator Prasarn Marukhapithak expressed confidence that no coup would happen because of the rally on Saturday.

He said there would be no justification for a putsch as the government could control the situation and no violence would arise.

Thaksin could not manoeuvre much abroad because his host countries, including the United Arab Emirates, would restrict his political movements, he said.

No more than 20,000 people would join the rally in front of Prem's house and they would disperse peacefully, he said.

The rally would be held just to try to extend the life of the red-shirt movement, he said.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said it was weird that coup speculation sprang up.

"Actually, nobody should have talked about a coup again because they have been calling for democracy. Now, why has it changed into a call for a change through a coup?" he said.

On Saturday, former supreme commander General Chaisit Shinawatra, a cousin of Thaksin, said he supported a coup if it would improve the country's situation. If one does take place, politics would have to start anew so that the conflicts in the country could end, he said.

Abhisit said he had talked to acting police chief Thanee Sombunsap, who reassured him that there should be no violence on Saturday, as most people want to protest peacefully.

But the government would try to prevent any untoward incident, the prime minister said.