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Thanong
Thanong Khanthong
Permalink : http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/thanong
Friday , August 28 , 2009
A list of 10 events to watch next year
Posted by Thanong , Reader : 1140 , 13:58:22  
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Published on August 28, 2009

I do not pretend to be an expert. But from my observation, I predict 10 major events that will or might happen next year.


Second, the global economy will face a double dip effect. Financial shocks will continue from the fourth quarter of 2009. There will be more corporate and financial institution bankruptcies. (The economic recovery so far is a result of global government stimulus spending. Weak consumer demand, credit tightening and squeezed export margins still persist. China has come out to jam the brakes on steel and cement production. It also warns coal, glass and power companies to slow down their issuing of debts or bonds.)

Third, government intervention or regulation will increase while free market principles will be weakened.

Fourth, agricultural products, particularly food, will fetch higher prices as the world faces poorer production, coupled with a collapse in paper wealth. There will be a food crisis.

Fifth, many countries in the world will increasingly look at the sufficiency economic model of Thailand as their own model. Although the Abhisit government has yet to take the sufficiency economic model into consideration, the new government will fully embrace the model, in which Thailand will try to live within its means, bank on agriculture, and increasingly turn towards alternative energy. Gross domestic product (GDP) will carry less weight in serving as a benchmark of economic performance.

On December 4, 1974, His Majesty the King delivered his royal speech to representatives of associations, religious organisations, teachers, and students from schools, colleges and universities on the occasion of the royal birthday at the Dusidalai Hall, Chitralada Villa, Dusit Palace. He said: "What others may say does not matter, whether they say that Thailand is old-fashioned or that we are outdated. Anyhow, we have enough to live on and to live for, and this should be the wish and determination of all of us to see sufficiency in this country. It is not that we will attain supreme prosperity, but we will have a sustainable and peaceful country. If we keep the sustainability, we already can be considered the top in comparison with other countries, beset as they are by crises and decline due to greed and rivalry for power, economic and industrial progress and in matters of ideology. So, for me, it will prove to be a birthday present of lasting value and benefit, if each of you, with your ideas and power of persuasion, join others who also have the same intentions, the determination to preserve the community so that we are able to enjoy a reasonable way of life - and I stress the reasonable, sustainable and peaceful conditions - defending ourselves against anyone who may want to rob us of our innate qualities."

The King's speech remains very relevant today.

Sixth, there will be social revolt in many countries to reflect the interests of the politically disaffected, or the grassroots people. So far the economic benefits have gone directly to serve the interests of the big banks and big corporations. With the financial crisis, government measures have also been pushed out to benefit the big banks and big businesses. The grassroots people will make their resentment heard. (In Japan, the centre-left Democratic Party of Japan might prevail over the Liberal Democrat Party, whose post-war formula of economic success representing the combined force of the politicians, the bureaucrats and the big corporations might have to be revised. In Thailand, this similar trend will become more obvious over the next two to three years.)

Seventh, natural disasters will intensify as a result of global warming. Weather patterns will become more erratic. Flying and sailing will become more dangerous due to the unpredictable nature of the weather conditions.

Eighth, pandemics will persist.

Ninth, US President Obama's rating will drop significantly because he can't rescue the US economy.

Tenth, there will be a global political realignment around the US, Russia and China. In particular, Russia and China will take a more adversary stance against the US.

Read comment

comment 63
Thanong date : 03/09/2009 time : 15.27
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/thanong

The new leader of Japan is turning away from holding the dollar. Isn't this a strong signal enough?
comment 62
Thanong date : 03/09/2009 time : 15.26
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/thanong

But Paul Kookie and Stiglitz do not know what they are talking about.
comment 61
Thanong date : 03/09/2009 time : 15.24
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/thanong

Lurker:
You don't get the basic right regarding your questions to Vetopower on US interest rate and US$2 trillion debts due by the end of this month.

US should have been forced to keep its interest rate high over the years in the order to attract foreign capital since it runs a deficit or consumes beyond its means. But US interest rate has been kept artificially low by a "special arrangement" with Japan and other export surplus countries, which keep on buying up the US treasuries. When US auctions its treasuries to finance the deficit, central banks and sovereign wealth funds snap them up like hot cake within minutes. In effect, Japan, South Korea, China and other export surplus countries are selling their manufactured goods to US in return for ink-wet paper, which calls the US dollar. This arrangement has worked over the past decades due to trust in US status and security.

But it is now cracking because of US overconsumption and bubbles.

The US$2 trillion debt that Vetopower refers to is the debt owed largely by the US financial institutions to the foreign creditors. Do you recall that in 1997, Thailand collapsed because foreign creditors withdrew their dollar credit from Thai banks all in a sudden. Thailand went under and had to seek IMF bailout because of sudden reversal of capital movements. Capital was moving out because investors and creditors did not have confidence in the Thai exchange rate system.

Now the US is facing exactly the same predicament. If vetopower is correct, US banks will have to pay US$2 trillion to foreign creditors at the end of this month. In October, US banks will face withdrawals by another several more trillion dollars, I guess.
When that happens, US banks would not have enough money to pay to the creditors because their loans are being stuck in the real estate and other consumer loans, which have already become rotten.

So US banks will have to turn to Federal Reserve for the liquidity to pay to the foreign creditors otherwise they will default. Already Fed has pumped about US$2.4 trillion into US financial system since last year to keep the system from falling apart. It plans to spend US$1.7 trillion to buy up US treasuries and corporate paper. Now if the Fed would not be in a position to hand out trillions of US dollar to the US banks any more because that would destroy the value of the dollar as Warren Buffet has warned.

Since the US financial system already cracks, it does not matter whether the Fed will step in or not because in the end it will fall apart.

Since the world's largest financial system is about to fall apart, I can only predict a collapse of US dollar and the ensuing social and economic turmoil in an unimaginable scale.

This is basic financial economics. Thailand has learnt the lesson. The Russian professor Igor knows what he is talking about.
comment 60
panya date : 02/09/2009 time : 14.17
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/diversion

Lurker C59

I have never heard of these people, John Bircher, NWO, UN black helicopter, North American Union, Alex Jones, nor have I ever visited their web sites.

Why do you Yanks have to hang labels on everybody?
.
comment 59
lurker date : 02/09/2009 time : 13.24
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/lurker

Vetopower-

Just like Panya, you are a John Bircher, NWO, UN black helicopter, North American Union, Alex Jones conspiracy theory nut job--and I am being kind.

The Truther BS has been debunked. You are a true believing kook, so there is no point in arguing 911 with you, just like there is no point in arguing with a fundamentalist Christian or Muslim. You people are blinded by cognitive dissonance.

If the US was going bankrupt to foreigners, US interest rates would be sky high right now. They are not. Why don't you tell the reader what percentage of the US budget goes to service foreign debt? That's right, you can't. It isn't 2 trillion dollars.

The Russian social scientist who is predicting the break up of the US has about as much credibility as Rasputin.
comment 58
vetopower date : 02/09/2009 time : 07.08
http://www.infowars.com/russian-professor-collapse-of-america-could-begin-in-two-months/


Thanong has it right, mostly. The US can't pay the interest on it's debt owed to foreigners... over 2 trillion due by Sept. 30th... it could easily default. USA already got a one year extension from last year. That's why stocks crashed in Oct. and printing of trillions of dollars has been non-stop. Hopes to devalue the debt/dollar. Foreigners are fed up. No one will buy our treasuries, or the false flag terror like 9/11 anymore. No one will pay for anymore wars. US could very much look like a breakup as pictured in the above link. Ceasing to exist as it's former self. Many changes very soon. Much of the current news is really a smoke screen to hide this fact. G20 will reveal much. Lots of luck everyone. Hope no one is dependant on Uncle Sam. Entitlements due to be extinct. Fiat currency about to become a dinosaur in the US.90% of dollars are foreign owned, but are backed back solid securities and/or gold, except those printed since 9/11/2008.
comment 57
Hermano_Lobo date : 01/09/2009 time : 23.42
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/yurivelasquez

The Armenian Dalmassian is talking out of his arse as usual.

If Thaksin were to be assassinated there would be Civil War in Thailand !
comment 56
BangkokRay date : 01/09/2009 time : 19.31

Lurker, #54,
Thank you for taking the time and having the patience to set the record straight. I don't have the patience required to explain the idiocy of some people. We have a select group here that would require a complete educational makeover in order for them to understand. I may be retired now, but still can't bring myself to try to educate them. Besides, as often as not, they will go off on a tirade about the fact that you chose Thailand as your new home, then progress to make comments about your family and post pictures.
As many have ststed here, there really is no hope for this select group.

Panya,
After "going to the books", do you understand that it was a load of horse pucky? Likely not, irregardless of what you discovered.
However, if the USA were to subscribe to Thanong's "sufficiency economy", this would be irrelevent.
comment 55
panya date : 01/09/2009 time : 13.11
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/diversion

Lurker C54

Thank you for correcting me where I went wrong, and going to the trouble of explaining. I regret my ignorance.

I must also thank you for additionally correcting me on what I didn't say, and as a bonus, telling me what I don't know, although there you were wrong on several counts. However, at least it motivated me to check.

You so obviously know considerably more than I do that I will happily butt out and go back to my books.

As for questioning Ray's one-liners, the day he makes a comment illustrating any knowledge will be the day I desist questioning, if that's ok with you
.
comment 54
lurker date : 01/09/2009 time : 12.01
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/lurker

Panya-

Ray is right. You are full of horse pucky. The very fact that you don't know the difference between monetary policy and fiscal policy and who is responsible for those policies reveals how much you know about this particular topic. You don't even know of the various roles that the Fed plays in the US economy.

1. The Fed is responsible for monetary policy, not fiscal policy. Congress makes fiscal policy. Do you even know the difference between the two?

2. You obviously know next to nothing on how the Federal Reserve operates and how it manages monetary policy. Do you even know how interest rates are set in the US? Do you know what the federal fund rate it? The discount rate? Or is your head filled with baseless conspiracy theories found at right-wing kook websites that nobody believes in except the tin foil hat crowd?

3. You don't know the difference between the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury department. The US Treasury prints money, not the Federal Reserve.

4. You are clueless to the fact that US banking system is not the same as other countries.

5. You are clueless to the fact that the US is a federal republic. Each state has its own banking policies. No bank is required by law to be part of the federal reserve. In fact, most banks don't belong to the Federal Reserve.

6. You are clueless to the fact that the member banks have very little control over the Federal Reserve, except to nominate people to sit on boards of regional Fed banks. Even then, the member banks have only a minority say. Member banks don't have normal stock holder rights in the federal reserve. Their influence and benefit is regulated by law.

Before you attack Bangkok Ray, maybe you should attack yourself first, because you obviously have no idea what you are talking about.
comment 53
panya date : 01/09/2009 time : 09.47
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/diversion

Ray C52

Thank you for your comment, eloquent and constructive as always, but disappointing in that your vocabulary and discussion skills are so limited, as you give the impression of being ignorant of your own country.

The Federal Reserve is made up of member banks which are privately owned. Although it operates within the government, it is an independent organisation which does not need approval from Congress in its operations. The member banks are run as private corporations and are self-funding as well as receiving fixed annual dividends, and whilst their stocks in the Federal Reserve are not traded, that is not their only business. The Governors of the Federal Reserve are appointed by the President and are involved with monetary policy, and thus the member banks will be able to conduct their business in the interests of the government's fiscal policies. Indeed, it is the Federal Reserve's mandate to steer the US financial policy for the benefit and stability of the nation and its people.

Whilst there may be systems in place to avoid abuse and ensure accountability, the citing of national security threats and protected information will inevitably exist over 'sensitive issues', and the existence of the recent financial collapse and the results borne by the US taxpayer make it difficult to claim that transparency is being maintained by those directing the country's financial stability.

The last I saw, it is estimated that 30% of American people believe the governments explanation of the 9/11 disaster is unsatisfactory. Furthermore, many question the Iraq fiasco and the government's foreign policy regarding the funding and support of various regimes. The media report the information and justifications the government offer them, and the questions which are unanswered remain unchallenged.

I am an unrefined ignorant foreigner, Ray, so stop playing war games on your xBox for a minute, and explain as an American and a statistician, where's the horseshit?
comment 52
BangkokRay date : 31/08/2009 time : 23.42

panya, #51,
What a load of horseshit you just spewed.
comment 51
panya date : 31/08/2009 time : 22.04
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/diversion

Dalmasian C47

I agree, it is certainly true that the govt officials should be answerable to the people. That is indeed the theory.

But as the Federal Reserve are privately owned and controlled by the wealthiest families in the US (I believe), and they basically print the US currency, I am dubious that transparency can be maintained to the extent necessary for such accountability to exist and be seen to exist.

It is becoming increasingly obvious that the US govt advocate one standard and adopt another, whilst ensuring that the media (as their most effective link to the public) disperse the facts and the truth only to the extent that govt policy and actions are seen to be above reproach. Where this becomes too awkward, they have an uncanny ability to ignore questions, relying on complexity to shield them from discovery. Nowhere is this more apparent than with the events leading up to, and including, the 9/11 WTC disaster.

So when it comes to the Federal Reserve, I fear there is too much involved, too much at stake, and too much to lose, for there to be no collusion in protecting themselves, and thus the government, from the honesty and answerability to which the public are entitled.
.
comment 50
Dalmasian date : 31/08/2009 time : 21.44
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/dalmasian

Hermano,

With all due respect to your fortune-telling abilities and your so-called political insights, when the Evil One is neutralized or terminated, the flow of money shall cease. Without money, the very lifeblood of the Red Curse Movement, all activities will cease very quickly and each of these paid mob members will go their separate way.

To say that the Red Curse Movement is "massive" and has a life of its won is utter BULL SHIT! Sorry I do not agree with you on this issue. Ask the Annunakis and Enkis if you wish.

I suggest you write an update to your planet X -- Nibiru blog for the benefit of the bloggers here. December 21, 2012 is fast approaching and Sumerian legend has it that all shall come to and end on that very day. Sony Pictures is even releasing a movie entitled 2012 in November this year if I remember correctly.

-- Dalmasian
comment 49
HA_HA date : 31/08/2009 time : 21.29

c48 - Mr. Mojojojo, good speculation. But the monk had given the name. I cannot tell here. Just wait and see, within this year.

HA_HA (Powerpuff Girl)
comment 48
Hermano_Lobo date : 31/08/2009 time : 17.49
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/yurivelasquez

HA_HA wrote: "I would like to add prediction no. 11 from one of Thailand's most famous monks :
"a very powerful man will die at the end of this year and the political turmoil will ease ... YES, not next year but THIS YEAR !!!!"

OK HA_HA lets run through some possible scenarios.
We must bear in mind that politcal turmoil will ease.

1) Khun Thaksin is assassinated by persons unknown(?).
Khun Thaksin has already thought long and hard about this situation. He has already appointed deputies to follow his cause should this happen. Anway the Red movement is massive and not just about Khun Thaksin. If he were to be assassinated POLITICAL TURMOIL would NOT ease. Unless at least five other players were also assassinated, it would have no affect whatsoever.
If any nasties are contemplating getting rid of KHun Thaksin in this manner. They are wasting their time and energy.

2) Any member of the esteemed family? Possible, given that age is a leveller to all mankind.

3) A very powerful person behind the scenes, not generally known to the public at large? This is also possible.

4) A member of the Privy Council? Again quite possible, a few of them are hardly youngsters.

Unless this is a prediction, put up by the powers at be, to prepare the people for some nasty event, conspired or natural. Is an open question.
Who is this priest? What are his allegiancies? To whom and to what ?

Assuming that the prediction is correct. If one man dies on the Red Shirt side. I do not forsee any great change in the political tensions. There are too many to step in and take over.

For the other side ? I suggest a glance at the members of the Privy Council. All are powerful in their own way. How this would reduce political tension I could not say. In fact I don't believe one death will change anything, on either side.
comment 47
Dalmasian date : 31/08/2009 time : 11.21
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/dalmasian

Khun Panya (c34),

" . . . do you think there is any chance the Federal Reserve can be taken to task?"

The answer is -- I believe there is. All US government officials are fully anwerable to the American people, at least the theory if not exactly in practice.

Someone or some group of activists and vigilantes must initiates some form of action to compel these government officials to come clean and fully explain their actions as well as be fully responsible for the results of those actions, at the risk of being prosecuted and severely punished if they fail to do their jobs to the best of their abilities in the best interest and benefit of the country and the people as a whole, and not specific individuals or organizations.

But only Americans can do this. If the American public is so foolish as to accept whatever filth is being dished out to them by their officials, no one can help them. They should not expect to get comfortable at all times as complacent couch potatoes and have others do the dirty job for them. As citizens they must all stand up and be counted.

The same is true with the Thais under the present circumstances vis-a-vis the evil monster hiding in Dubai and elsewhere from the law. Former Israeli PM Olmert just got indicted yesterday for corruption. We do not see him running away and hiding in a rat hole like the coward Thugsin the Mother of All Thai Crooks, do we?

-- Dalmasian
comment 46
Ian date : 30/08/2009 time : 20.46
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

thanong 39. " their standard of living can't get worse.". Almost true, but if we look at the sub-Sahara regions in Africa we see that even when people are living at a subsistence level it can get worse. Basically at this level one is completely at the whim of the climate; flood droughts, pestilence can quickly move one from subsistence to starvation.
Many thais seem in this precarious position.
comment 45
Ian date : 30/08/2009 time : 18.56
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

comment 25. "He has the right to express his opinions and they are none of your bloody business."
This is one of the strangest comments I have met, surely by writing a blog one is asking for everyone to make it their business and comment accordingly.
comment 44
HA_HA date : 30/08/2009 time : 11.21

I would like to add prediction no. 11 from one of Thailand's most famous monks :

"a very powerful man will die at the end of this year and the political turmoil will ease ... YES, not next year but THIS YEAR !!!!

this is inline with your prediction no. 1 but different reason

like all predictions, prediction is prediction ..i'll just wait and see.
comment 43
FelixQui date : 30/08/2009 time : 11.13
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/FelixQui

"Whereas you keep on repeating the mistake that imposing the sufficient level would reduce their standard of living when in fact their standard of living can't get worse."

Yes, i think that if you have to IMPOSE your solution by force on an unwilling population that it very likely will be disastrous. Just like Pol Pot's vision proved a disaster. The IMPOSITION of Mao's vision on his people also had a rather high cost in human lives and productivity. Standards of living CAN get worse - again, just look at Cambodia and Burma, which should be at least as high as Thailand, but are not.
comment 42
FelixQui date : 30/08/2009 time : 11.08
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/FelixQui

Thanong,
I am entirely in favour of raising the standard of living of the majority. They are also in favour of that. What they are not in favour of is being farmers.
Abhisit is trying to do the same thing. He may or may not succeed, but at least he shares the a similar economic goal.
Some how, I can't see ANY of the top 5% of Thai people making a sacrifice. To the best of my kowledge, the sort of philanthropy as shown by the likes of Buffet and Gates in the capitalist US does exist in state controlled Thailand.
comment 41
Thanong date : 30/08/2009 time : 08.50
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/thanong

BangkokRay: In the coming years, many farang will be they would be happy enough if they live like a Thai -- owing a small farm with fish in the pond and the heck with all the debts.
comment 40
Thanong date : 30/08/2009 time : 08.45
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/thanong

If we raise the living standard of the 30-40 million Thais from a scale of 2-4 to 5, then it means that those living in the scale of 9-10, which represents only 5 per cent of the population will have to make a sacrifice.
comment 39
Thanong date : 30/08/2009 time : 08.15
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/thanong

Felix: YOu wrote: "Thanong, re c.36,
No, we don't say you are "day-dreaming because it violates [our] capitalism", myself and a couple of others have suggested that you are day-dreaming because sufficiency economics just isn't what millions of people want. Millions of Thai people want a better life for themselves and family, and they are willing to work and sacrifice for that."

You keep on repeating the mistake. From a scale of 1 to 10, let's assume that the level of sufficient way of life is 5. The majority Thais of 30-40 million are living in the scale of 2 to 4. THEY HAVE YET TO ACHIEVE THE SUFFICIENT LEVEL because of poor crop price, indebtedness, poor education and social injustice and so on.

Whereas you keep on repeating the mistake that imposing the sufficient level would reduce their standard of living when in fact their standard of living can't get worse.
comment 38
FelixQui date : 30/08/2009 time : 01.02
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/FelixQui

Thanong, re c.36,
No, we don't say you are "day-dreaming because it violates [our] capitalism", myself and a couple of others have suggested that you are day-dreaming because sufficiency economics just isn't what millions of people want. Millions of Thai people want a better life for themselves and family, and they are willing to work and sacrifice for that. Millions of Thai people do not want be farmers, to return to farming or to see their children follow them into farming. Millions of Thai people want mobile phones, and better, newer, more sophisticated mobile phones, many of the features of which they will never use or understand, and they want better, bigger, more comfortable homes, and more conveniences, and so on. And millions of Thai people want their lives and their childrens to be as wonderful as the lives of those they see above them. This is not just characteristic of millions of Thai people, it's a human characteristic, and that is why the world cannot go backwards to a sufficiency economy. Pol Pot and his ilk have also had such idealisitic visions of teh future looking back to the past, but the only way they could get the people to go along was to slaughter them wholesale for their own good, and keep strict control over the remainder. I agree with you that the principles are wonderful, and I personally choose not to devote my entire life to amassing wealth and things I don't need, but that's my personal choice, and of course things that I do think "needed" and "reasonable" such as the latest hot book by Steven Pinker or Daniel Dennett (alas, there will be no more Robert Nozick books or essays), are unlikely to match with the things that others value. Why should my personal preferences be forced on everyone? Why should I expect everyone else to share my passions? I don't - some people don't even read Homer! Within the constraints of respect for my and others' human rights, I think that others should be free to determine for themselves what gives value and meaning to their lives, rather than being forced to adopt my set of value and meaning conferring goodies. (Sorry, thinking of Nozick has affected my line of thought.) Of course, I'll argue in favour of my choices when occasion demands, but I don't normally think that the state should be co-opted to force my choices on those who aren't interested. And I think that the reality, dictated by our genes, is that human beings just don't want sufficiency economics, which is why no nation is rushing to adopt it, and why I don't expect any to now or in the foreseeable future. I can envision some radical changes that might enable something like it, but they have to wait until after the Blue Brain project and a couple of other equally world shattering breakthroughs have come to pass.

Although I think that there are real and substantial flaws in the American practice of capitalism, and that they are increasing, the US system is still capitalist based, and it is often, though perhaps not always, the deviations from the superior free market principles that lead to disasters such as we have been experiencing these past twelve months. Capitalism made the US what it is; straying too far from the way has caused the problems, as Dalmasian kindly pointed to in his c.31. A return to a purer capitalism is the solution, not the cause. Sadly, I'm not sure that that will come to pass: governments, including the US government under any president, love to take control and are ever loath to hand their liberties back to the people. Whilst pushing for it, I do try to keep my dream tempered by reality, especially human realities.
comment 37
BangkokRay date : 30/08/2009 time : 00.06

Thanong,
That is why the the USA continues to exist and why Thailand continues to deteriorate into oblivion. You are so far out of touch with reality that there is no hope for you,
comment 36
Thanong date : 29/08/2009 time : 22.05
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/thanong

Felix: My point is that when I talk sufficiency, you guys say I am day-dreaming because it violates your capitalism. When I point out that there is no such a thing as capitalism because nobody is REALLY practising it, you don't get it. If the US, the champion of capitalism is not capitalism, then who should practice it?
comment 35
panya date : 29/08/2009 time : 21.38
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/diversion

Felix C33

There is absolutely no chance of any FOI legislation being introduced. It would destroy the country, and make corruption almost impossible. How could the civil service and commerce survive?
comment 34
panya date : 29/08/2009 time : 21.35
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/diversion

Dalmasian C31

One answer to your single question is: protecting their interests whilst lining their pockets.

My question is: do you think there is any chance the Federal Reserve can be taken to task?
.
comment 33
FelixQui date : 29/08/2009 time : 21.07
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/FelixQui

Thanong, re c.28,
I don't see your point. I'm all in favour of state activities being made public knowledge.
As I've just written in reply to Dalmassian's c.31, I also agree that the problem has not been capitalism and free market mechanisms, but unjustified deviations from them by successive US governments.

I fully support Bloomberg's move to force the Fed. to come clean, and I think that the court's grant until Sept. 30 comply or appeal is very generous.

Thailand would benefit greatly from equally strong FOI legislation. In fact, US FOI legislation seems to me much too weak - governments should be required to make public on request a lot more. I'm hoping that Obama will continue his healthy trend in that direction, especially as regards serious lapses by security, intelligence and military oganisations. The people should know what their guardians are up to, especially what they are doing wrong.
Do you think that sort of transparency and civilian oversight is likely to happen in Thailand any decade soon?
comment 32
FelixQui date : 29/08/2009 time : 20.59
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/FelixQui

Dalmasian, re c.31,
You wrote: 'To be in business means taking risks everyday. Take too much risks in pursuit of hugh returns is nothing but greed. Make a mistake and the company goes kaput. Other, better managed companies can tae over the businesses left by the failed company. THAT is "free market" economy.'
I agree completely. The fault is not capitalism, but state interference that actively prevented free market mechanisms from working as they should have. I agree that a lot more big businesses should have been allowed to fail as they so richly deserved to, rather than being bailed by forced contributions stolen from American tax payers.
comment 31
Dalmasian date : 29/08/2009 time : 20.43
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/dalmasian

Anyone who thinks the USA has a "free market economy" must be deaf and blind. There is tremendous market manipulations by the government going on in that country for so many years. This should not have happened in a truly "free market" economy where survival of the fittest is the rule of the game.

To be in business means taking risks everyday. Take too much risks in pursuit of hugh returns is nothing but greed. Make a mistake and the company goes kaput. Other, better managed companies can tae over the businesses left by the failed company. THAT is "free market" economy.

"Too big to fail" my ass. When the Thai government wanted to rescue and save some of the 53 now-defunt finance companies during the 1997 financial crisis, the US Government, through the IMF, said no way, Jose.

But look at what they have done with Citigroup, B of A, AIG, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, GE, GM, Chrysler, etc. Do as I say, don't do as I do -- that's "free market economy?" Take the blinkers off the sides of your eyes, ladies and gentlemen, and be honest with yourselves.

Helicopter Ben (Bernanke) is not a hero by any measurement. He claimed that he and the world's central bankers save the world from financial collapse by pumping trillion of dollars into the world's economies and flooding the markets with liquidity, euphemistically called "quantitative easing," with borrowed money! Sure, it costs almost nothing to print money. Easy come, easy go. Who is going to pay for all of these spending spree at the end of the day?

And, let me ask one single question. The Federal Reserve is one of the US financial market's several regulators. What have these regulators been doing collectively all these years to allow such a dire situation and credit crunch/freeze in the USA to happen in the first place?

-- Dalmasian
comment 30
Dalmasian date : 29/08/2009 time : 20.24
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/dalmasian

c27,

Strange that we have a gay blogger among us here. BangkokGay, go play with your own kind. This blog site has no room for he-she's like you!

Sheew, sheew, go away and don't come back another day! And . . . don't forget to bring your Webster to Planet X Nibiru with you. The Annunakis there are not very forgiving, especially with he-she's like you.

-- Dalmasian
comment 29
BangkokRay date : 29/08/2009 time : 18.47

Felix,
Guess it's time to write Obama and sell him sufficiency economy for the USA.
comment 28
Thanong date : 29/08/2009 time : 18.05
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/thanong

Felix: I would like you to read this. You have been so much of a big fan of free market capitalism.

############

Judge Sets Sept. 30 Deadline for Fed to Appeal Disclosure Order
By Mark Pittman

Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve has until Sept. 30 to appeal a federal judge’s order requiring the central bank to identify financial institutions that benefited from its emergency loans.

The Fed’s Board of Governors asked Manhattan Chief U.S. District Judge Loretta Preska to delay enforcement of her Aug. 24 decision that the identities of borrowers in 11 lending programs be made public by Aug. 31. The central bank wanted Preska to stay her order until the U.S. Court of Appeals in New York can hear the case.

The Fed’s “ability to effectively manage the current, and any future, financial crisis” would be impaired, according to the Fed’s motion for a stay. It said “significant harms” could befall the U.S. economy as well.

Bloomberg LP, the New York-based company majority-owned by Mayor Michael Bloomberg, sued on Nov. 7 under the Freedom of Information Act on behalf of its Bloomberg News unit.

Fed lawyer Kit Wheatley told Preska in a conference call yesterday that it could take 30 days for the Fed to get permission for an appeal from Solicitor General Elena Kagan, the administration’s top courtroom lawyer.
comment 27
BangkokRay date : 29/08/2009 time : 14.57

damn-nation, #25,
Since you're so much in to "looking", suggest you "look" in a dictionary before writing your big words.
comment 26
peacefulness date : 29/08/2009 time : 11.15
nationmultimedia.com

latest from local tv stns,

redshirts rally on 30aug09 cancelled, postpone to 05sep09, reasons unknown.

fiscal budget bill yes 244 votes, no 10 votes, abstained 56 votes, 13mps did not vote.
comment 25
Dalmasian date : 29/08/2009 time : 10.48
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/dalmasian

To all bloggers commenting here. Before you criticize Khun Thanong look at yourself in the mirror first. So what is some or all of his procnostications are a bit wacky or out of line?

He has the right to express his opinions and they are none of your bloody business. You can argue point-by-point to express your own opinions, and that is fine, but you have NO RIGHT to criticise him personally, ever!

Khun Thanong, you have done well and continue to do well. Just ignore these ignoramus and their foul mouths or pens.

-- Dalmasian
comment 24
wch date : 29/08/2009 time : 07.16

Good wish list.
What about if the democrat is dissolved tommorrow ?
comment 23
Hermano_Lobo date : 29/08/2009 time : 05.21
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/yurivelasquez

Ian-

It is because Thanong lives in an 'Ivory Tower'.

I don't think Thanong knows where Soi Cowboy is, let alone what goes on there.

His words are of one who has lead a privileged and sheltered life. Fed from a golden spoon.

The difference in life experience between you and Thanong is very wide.

lonewolf-

I think you have just about nailed this blog; to the wall !
comment 22
lonewolf date : 29/08/2009 time : 03.52

Thanong even though you push the plausibility button on several of your prognostications, I think that you should be commended for a valiant attempt. Your perceptions are based upon your view of Thailand and the world from your experiences, education and upbringing. I understand that. However, my education, experiences and upbringing have led me to some complementary and some contradictory views.

Perhaps the biggest point of convergence is with number 5…Not because I don’t see the value of a sufficiency economy—I just can’t foresee any country radically changing its economic structure at this point in history.
Sufficiency economy must begin with individuals or it can never be accepted by a government. And any society which is comprised of a majority of individuals who will always invest in the newest mobile phone (even if the current one is still operable), purchase another Coach handbag (four is never enough), and buy the current year Tag Heuer will not easily accept the change to sufficiency. The pleasures and comforts that modern society brings to many people will not easily be forfeited in the name of sufficiency.

At best individual citizens and households can be educated in the economic and social benefits of growing organic food in their garden, reducing their reliance on certain electronic devices (who really needs an electric can opener, electric pencil sharpener, electric watch winder….), riding a bike or walking instead of driving (this would require massive structural change in Bangkok). All of which would make a positive change for individuals and the world.

A county that is moving toward a sufficiency economy but is historically dependent upon exports or imports will have very powerful commercial interests to defeat. A positional challenge to the economic well-being of the political and economic elite will cause a schism in most countries that will make the red shirt/yellow shirt competition look like a schoolyard shoving match.

Thanong, your predictions for numbers 4,6,8,9,10 are appropriate calls but I slightly disagree on the reasons that they will come true.

(4) Food prices are always subject to the whims of the weather (rice in the Philippines, political distress (cocoa in West Africa), biofuel production (feed corn in the U.S.). That is nothing new…(6) for every country in which the politically disaffected will revolt there will be other countries that will savagely put down their indigenous protests, (for example; Iran, Burma, North Korea, Zimbabwe, Kenya---and coming soon Honduras)…(8) pandemics are not new, they move in and out like a pendulum. They are made possible by the continuous evolution of viruses and fade away when human immune systems develop levels of immunity. (9) Every U.S. president in the modern era has had his popularity rating drop significantly before the first mid-term election (regardless of the economic strength of the country).
(10) Russia has never been an easy ally of the U.S. since they dropped the initials USSR. They trade with Iran, Burma, North Korea and Cuba with little concern about their relationship with the U.S. They are trying to use oil to re-establish hegemony over Eastern Europe and they want to regain their status as a world super-power at any cost. China will always say one thing publicly and retreat to diplomacy privately. They have bet the future of their economic well being on the ability of the U.S. to pay back its debt and on the U.S. addiction to cheaply produced goods. If China becomes more adversarial then there is nothing to keep the U.S. from imposing import duties on all Chinese imports and withdraw from the WTO (which the U.S. should do now anyway). Who would that hurt the most?
comment 21
Ian date : 28/08/2009 time : 23.00
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

I increasingly feel that there is a Thailand that Thanong knows and a Thailand that I know, and they are not the same country. I have a similar problem when I look at Thanong's view of the West, it is not the West that I know. Why can this be?
comment 20
Hermano_Lobo date : 28/08/2009 time : 22.05
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/yurivelasquez

Erik,

Well somebody has to partially agree with the poor old bugger?

If the Thai upper classes all think like Thanong. Whatever is going to hit them.....

They won't see it coming.
comment 19
ErikOrange date : 28/08/2009 time : 21.05
http://www.neworangecafe.org/forum
http://neworangecafe.org/forum/

Thanong; you have finally lost the little you had of left of your sanity and completely lost touch with the real world. Have never in my life ever read a blog filled with inconsistent yet contradictory drivel such as this. “Thailand will go through a political transition to reach more stable ground…red-shirt movement will fizzle out” and ”there will be social revolt in many countries to reflect the interests of the politically disaffected”; the interests of the politically (and economically) disaffected in Thailand don’t deserve a revolt, just the foreigners? The rest of your so-called predictions were so bizarre it’s not really worthy a comment. As you say you are no expert but you sure have lost your marbles as I say and I only wish you a speedy recovery.
comment 18
Space date : 28/08/2009 time : 19.40
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Foss

Not bad, K. Patriot...not bad at all... Thanks, just dropping by for a bit of fun...that all.
comment 17
FelixQui date : 28/08/2009 time : 19.24
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/FelixQui

1st: No, "the political polarisation will begin to" WIDEN as the people increasingly see through growing holes in the veil of ignorance. Also see 6th below. Of course, the state could resort to even greater intimidation to silence dissent in order to create a delusionary bubble of unity and stability.

2nd: maybe. I don't know and I'm not qualified to guess. I'm sure that things won't be rosy any time soon.

3rd: certainly certain for Thailand, where any excuse is used to grab more control over the people's lives to relieve them of the need to be responsible adults or decide even how to entertain themselves.

4th: is the world facing poorer production in the immediate future? I don't know.

5th: If "many countries in the world will increasingly look at the sufficiency economic model of Thailand as their own model" I will buy you dinner at my favourite French restaurant. (It's in Patpong, but don't let that put you off. The food is great, and I'm confident that I'll still be able to afford it.) Do the "many countries" include oddities like Bhutan and North Korea?
Which "new government will fully embrace the model"? I missed the prediction about a new government to replace Abhisit's current government. Is that change coming about by coup or election?

6th: But apparently not in Thailand where "social revolt ... to reflect the interests of the politically disaffected, or the grassroots people" has been well and truly crushed? There seems to be some conflict between this prediction and the 1st one. And I'm not sure how that "new government" in the 5th fits in here. That "in Thailand, this similar trend will become more obvious over the next two to three years" seems to flatly contradict the 1st prediction, unless the stability there really is a false lull before the bubble explodes.

7th: quite possibly, but probably not that much worse than this year.

8th: they often have. I also agree with the WHO on this one.

9th: quite possibly.

10th: Russia maybe, since it is already doing that, but China seems to me to be moving the other way: asserting it's independence, yes, but not in a markedly adversarial way. I don't think the CHinese are thrilled with the US or their dependence on it, but they do want to keep exporting their way to growth (see 5th above). Nor are the Chinese showing any signs of great concern about continuing to gobble up their ecological assets, or those of other people. I'm also open to the possibility that China's domestic peace could be rapidly and seriously fractured were development to stall - I don't think they will risk any serious breach with their customers.
comment 16
Patriot date : 28/08/2009 time : 17.48
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Patriot

Khun Space: Glad to see you back...
comment 15
Space date : 28/08/2009 time : 17.43
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Foss

Or shall I say K. Thanong...."You're not too far from it". ;)
comment 14
Hermano_Lobo date : 28/08/2009 time : 17.43
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/yurivelasquez

I agree with Pomjuk-

The next year, all seems too soon ?
comment 13
Pomjuk date : 28/08/2009 time : 17.40
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/pomjuk

number 3: let's* hope* we have a hands-off type of government.
comment 12
Pomjuk date : 28/08/2009 time : 17.36
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/pomjuk

Probability of getting them right

1.Probability .0:
It’s just your wish!

2.Probability .0:
double dip no I don’t think so. With that said, a stagnation is possible, since the company can no longer cut costs, They have to start growing to fuel the market index to be above 11000. With that said I think the DOW will be somewhere around 11000 in the ext quarter.

3.0.5
because when things go wrong the government will want to regulate things to death. Anyway I still believe the free market mechanisms work and let home we have a hands-off type of government.

4.0.5
First predicting something without a timeframe is useless. All things go up or down at some point in time.

5..0
Haha you’re funny

6.0.5

7.Cheated!! You are trying to get your chance of getting at least one, right.

8.Cheated!! Pandemic of what?

9.0.5
may be, may be not

10.0.5
who knows without any evidence it’s just a 50/50 thing

First predicting something without a timeframe is useless. All things go up or down at some point in time. Second, anyone can predict a “yes” or “no” question with .5 probability. That’s not much of a prophet at all, is it?
comment 11
Hermano_Lobo date : 28/08/2009 time : 17.35
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/yurivelasquez

"First, Thailand will go through a political transition to reach more stable ground. Thaksin Shinawatra and his red-shirt movement will fizzle out. The political polarisation will begin to narrow as the country shifts toward symmetry in the medium term to prepare itself to cope with global recession and further financial turmoil."

(First)THIS IS WISHFUL THINKING

"Fifth, many countries in the world will increasingly look at the sufficiency economic model of Thailand as their own model. Although the Abhisit government has yet to take the sufficiency economic model into consideration, the new government will fully embrace the model, in which Thailand will try to live within its means, bank on agriculture, and increasingly turn towards alternative energy. Gross domestic product (GDP) will carry less weight in serving as a benchmark of economic performance."

(Fifth)THIS IS BOLLOCKS as is Sufficiency Economy.

The rest is right on the money. Absolutely accurate, even though somewhat depressing.

Thanong has pretty much described the next ten years or so.

The question is; whether to escape and live the simple life, on a Thai island or a Caribbean one.

Apart from the Red shirt and Sufficiency prejudice. This may be Thanong's most omportant blog.

I would rely on its contents.

Scary but true !
comment 10
Patriot date : 28/08/2009 time : 17.26
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Patriot

Khun Thanong: Interesting you mention Japan. The Japanese have to take drastic action, I look at Japans' unemployment rate and it is concerning since they are a leading consumer of goods on many levels. They can no longer spend their way out of crisis and they are doing what they have to do while we politick.
comment 9
Plaadip date : 28/08/2009 time : 17.14

Thanong, are you really not out of mind? :) Bye bye.
comment 8
Thanong date : 28/08/2009 time : 17.10
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/thanong

Patriot:
Japan is about to enter New Politics this Sunday. The opposition Democraty Party of Japan could emerge victorious with its anti-establishment agenda, including a shift away from export-led strategy for Japan. It is funny that Japan will turn to sufficiency economy before Thailand because the Democrat Party is still dreaming of export-led growth.
comment 7
Thanong date : 28/08/2009 time : 17.06
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/thanong

Lurker: You are contradicting yourself. If you believe that Obama's popularity will drop like a rock, then he would not be able to rescue the US economy. His popularity depends on his management of the economy.

Space: I may write something which sounds strange to you. But I am not out of my mind yet.
comment 6
Patriot date : 28/08/2009 time : 17.05
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Patriot

In my view, the current global economy is still in a state of uncertainty and there should be cautious optimism towards declaring a victory over this recession. As the various stimulus packages that were initiated by developed nation economies begin to inundate liquidity in certain targeted sectors we the emerging markets will see a predictable yet temporary strengthening in the global capital markets and core targeted sectors.

The issue of concern for me is that the root causes of the crises have not been addressed and global leaders in their attempt to stop the downward contraction are creating another potential economic monster. That monster is "Inflation" and it should be taken very seriously.

John Maynard Keynes long ago laid out a road map for political survival amid an economic disaster of just this sort: “By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.... The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

Thailand needs to prepare for this eventuality by developing specific strategies that will minimize the harmful effects of inflation towards our various productive sectors while at the same time reducing the budget deficit through systematic government spending cuts and the implementation of a new political and economic model based on regional perspectives.

I hope that we have the gumption to make the hard decisions when it is necessary, for the peoples sake.
comment 5
Space date : 28/08/2009 time : 16.40
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Foss

What's going on with you K.Thanong? I have once regard you as a teacher with valid writings but now you have totally changed, what change you? Have you taken up a job as a fortune teller or an astrologer of some kind...? You need help Thanong.
comment 4
yabua date : 28/08/2009 time : 16.06
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/yabua

ReC2
Chin up, Khun Thanong.
Cheers!
comment 3
lurker date : 28/08/2009 time : 15.40
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/lurker

I predict none of those predictions will happen except Obama's popularity sinking like a rock.
comment 2
Thanong date : 28/08/2009 time : 15.26
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/thanong

Dalmasian:

In fact, my predictions are even gloomier and doomier. I shall try to expand on the themes that I have raised. Thank you!
comment 1
Dalmasian date : 28/08/2009 time : 14.59
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/dalmasian

Excellent blog, Khun Thanong. Now, if you can provide details of your rationale for each of your predictions that would be perfect. We need to fully understand the thinking behind all those predictions.

Cheers!

-- Dalmasian
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