The whole scene was a theatrical exercise. On the one hand, it could be seen as a display of the collective right of Thais to seek a royal pardon. On the other, it could be viewed as yet another attempt to intimidate the monarchy.

The entire process of this royal petition for Thaksin is flawed. A person seeking a royal petition must have family members representing him or her, must repent for his or her wrongdoing, and must serve the time as handed down by the justice system first. The royal petition for Thaksin did not meet a single criterion, although Thaksin had been well advised of this by dozens of constitutional and legal experts. But that is not the point. So the petition can be interpreted as nothing more than a sheer act of provocation and arrogance, with a hidden political agenda.

Indeed, the petition was designed as an act of provocation against the monarchy so that the military could have the justification to come out. To justify an intervention, the military could have conveniently blamed the red shirts for committing lese majeste. The plot was very similar to an incident that sparked the violence of the October 6, 1976 tragedy at Thammasat University. If, after a gesture from some key red-shirt strategists, the military had come out, then the red shirts would have become the victims of military suppression.

In fact, the red shirts who staged a "people's revolution" on April 13 this year to help bring Thaksin back to Thailand could also have become victims of military suppression. That crisis was averted by a silent counter coup, without which Abhisit Vejjajiva would have lost his premiership and seen his life in danger. The red shirts are easy pawns that can be sacrificed any time by their leaders, who selfishly crave a military intervention so that they can return to power.

As a reward for their work, the red-shirt cronies got more than Bt1 billion for their labour and expenses in the royal petition operation. Fortunately for all, no violence occurred on the day.

On the same day that the petition was submitted, the Supreme Court's Division for Political Office Holders was about to read a verdict on the rubber sapling case against Newin Chidchob, the leader of the Bhum Jai Thai Party, and 43 other defendants. Newin could have gone to jail had it not been for the absence of Adisai Bhodaramik, who requested sick leave. The court can only read the verdict while all defendants are present. The court did not buy Adisai's excuse. It immediately issued an arrest warrant for him and postponed the reading of the verdict to September 21.

There was a 70/30 chance that Newin and the other defendants would be found guilty of the alleged corruption associated with the case. A university law professor told me that during testimony, a judge asked Newin: "If you did not think that it was right, why did you go ahead and do it?" From this testimony, many have come to believe that Newin will have a difficult time escaping the court's ire. Newin is playing a key role in the coalition government. With only a single move from him, the Abhisit government could fall apart.

Fearing that Newin et al could go to jail, Bhum Jai Thai proposed a legislative motion to provide amnesty for all politicians affected by the 2007 military coup. On the surface, the Bhum Jai Thai members have told the public that the bill is designed to reconcile the political polarisation in Thai society, otherwise the country cannot move forward. But the real intention of the amnesty bill is to help Newin in case he loses the rubber sapling case. The bill, for all its claims, would become another controversial issue to polarise society even more, and invite the military to try another intervention. If the bill were to be pushed into Parliament, the yellow shirts would certainly come out again onto the streets to protest.

We must differentiate an amnesty from a royal pardon. The government can provide amnesty to anyone via legislation passed by the national assembly. Only His Majesty the King can grant a royal pardon.

Abhisit cannot sit still. Earlier, I predicted that his government might not last beyond August. Now it appears that the August crisis has been averted. The prime minister can now look forward to the dangerous month of October, which he might or might not survive. Bhum Jai Thai has already appointed a new permanent secretary for the Interior Ministry, who has the power to reshuffle provincial governors. This is a sign that Bhum Jai Thai is preparing for a snap election. In the meantime, the government is broke. The knot is being tightened around our dear prime minister.