August 16, 2009
 
We need to keep an eye on two dramatic political developments today. The Red Shirted supporters of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra would make their way to the Grand Palace this morning to file a petition to His Majesty the King seeking Royal clemency for their boss. In the afternoon, at the nearby Supreme Court's Office of the Political Holders, a verdict against Newin Chidchob on the rubber sapling case would be read out. Newin is among the 44 defendants on this corruption scandal.

The Red Shirted protestors would be marching to the Grand Palace in a display of intimidation against anybody who dares to stand on their way. You may wonder why the police allow them to do so. But as most of the police wear Red T-Shirts beneath their uniform, they have shifted their mode of operation into a neutral gear so. That's why the Red Shirts can do whatever they want to rock the boat until they can bring back their boss. Yet the most the Red Shirts can do this morning is to show up at the Wiset Chaisri Gate, which is sort of a backdoor, where they would hand the petition to a representative of the Grand Palace.

Within the Old Bangkok on the Rattanakosin Island, the whole area is considered Royal compound. Everybody must speak and act with reservation. But the Red Shirts are about to stage an uprising to intimidate the Monarchy. We all know that the Red Shirts' submitting a petition to His Majesty the King is unlawful. By law, only family members or very close relatives of the those sentenced by court orders are entitled to submit the petition. The Three Hard Headed Comrades -- Veera Musikaphong, Nutthawut Saikua, and Jatuporn Phromboon who spearhead the petition drive -- are not sons of Thaksin. Or are they? Moreover, to be entitled for Royal clemency an individual must repent his or her past wrong-doing and serve the court sentence first. Thaksin is a futigive, who has jumped bail on a court sentence of two years in prison against him. He does not repent. He also denounces the Thai justice system.

So it is certainly that the petition for Thaksin would go directly into the dust bin.

Still, Thaksin is expected to phone into his supporters before and after they have handed the petition. We don't know yet whether they would disperse in a hurry after finishing their ugly petition business, or whether they would hang on for another extended big rally. Their leaders promise that they would disperse by around two o'clock.

The Red Shirts were quashed on April 13 after they had failed to instigate violence to the point of a military intervention. Now they might be tempted to make another try. The military would love to come out once they smell blood. This should not be allowed to happen. The military is divided. 

At the same time, the Blue Shirted supporters of Newin Chidchob, the core leader of Bhumjai Thai Party, will also turn up at the Supreme Court’s Political Division for Political Office Holders at the nearby Sanam Luang. At two o'clock in the afternoon, the Court would read out the verdict. My bet is a 70 per cent chance that Newin et al would not survive the court sentence.   
 
Since the two events will take place within the same vinicity, what would happen if the Red Shirts or the Blue Shirts do not get what they want? Would they become angry and start to create trouble?

The top military brass have been keeping quiet. The moments of power play are approaching. Suriyasai Katasila, one of the leaders of the People's Alliance for Democracy which represents the Yellow Shirts, has cautioned that if the turmoil were to spill out of control, a Third Party might step in to reap the benefit. He did not identify who the Third Party was. My guess is that the Third Party represents those who used to wear green uniforms.  
  
Suriyasai questioned the unusually impassive stance by the military leaders saying they will be the key factor that wield influence over the situation. "It is very abnormal that they have kept very quiet, giving no comment,’’ he said.
 
Thaksin left a message in face book and twitter that he was drafting a speech to address the gathering of his supporters. He said it was what has been in his mind that he wanted to speak out long ago but he has not found more suitable opportunity as today to do so. Chatuporn Prompan, a core leader of the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship, said Thaksin would phone in twice before the petition is filed and afterwards. The gathering will be dissolved before 2 pm.

The military is in a full alert mode. The Sondhi Limthongkul's assassination attempt case is still hovering above the heads of many men in green uniform. If they don't attack now, they would have to defend later. They definitely do not want to defend themselves when they and their friends have lost power.

Thai politics is being played out to the last card that each is holding tightly to his chest.
 
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