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Thanong
Thanong Khanthong
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Sunday , August 9 , 2009
Suchinda tips the balance of power
Posted by Thanong , Reader : 773 , 20:38:46  
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August 9, 2009

Suchinda tips the balance of power

This week Gen Suchinda Khraprayoon, the former prime minister, emerged to warn the Red Shirted agitators. He made it clear that he did not agree with their attempt to mobilise seven million signatures nationwide as part of a campaign to seek royal pardon for Thaksin Shinawatra. Suchinda's words are quite crucial, coming at a time when political polarisation in this country has heightened to the point that it could break up into another episode of violence. It should be noted that Suchinda, who lost his power in the 1992 May tragedy, still musters enormous influence in Thai politics. He still has the ears of most of the military top brass.

By voicing his objection against Red Shirted protestors' signature campaign, Suchinda has tipped the balance of power away from the Red Camp, led by Thaksin, and the Blue Camp, led by Gen Pravit Wongsuwan and Army Chief Gen Anupong Paochinda. The Red Camp and the Blue Camp have formed an alliance at this critical juncture, where behind-the-scenes power play is being exerted to full force. The police force belongs to the Red Camp, while about half of the military force back the Blue Camp. Except for the Democrats, most of the politicians in the House of Representatives either support the Red Camp or the Blue Camp.

Big Su still holds enormous power and barami in the Thai army.


Sondhi Limthongkul's Yellow Camp now feels a big relief from Gen Suchinda's fresh move. So does Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who also has some breathing room to maneouvre. Former prime minister Chuan Leekpai, now advisor of the Democrat Party, has cautioned Abhisit against any inclination to bow to the pressure of the Red and Blue Camps. He is afraid that the Democrats could be quickly flushed down the drain with other losers by the growing confrontation and potential clashes ahead. Suthep Thuagsuban, the deputy prime minister and secretary-general of the Democrat Party, has acted as a link between the Democrats and the Red and Blue Camps, playing his role so abusively that nobody is certain which side he is on now. Increasingly, Suthep will be isolated from his party as Abhisit seeks to become his own man.

It took the indecisive Abhisit a while before he could remove Pol Chief Patcharawat Wonsuwan from standing in the way of Pol Gen Thanee Somboonsap's investigation into the assassination attempt against Sondhi. The Blue and Red Camps had threatened to bring the Abhisit government down if Patcharawat were to be sacked.

The situation remains very intense in all camps. Nobody dares to breath. One signal mistake could be fatal. We are witnessing a political conflict developing toward a perfect polarisation. Gen Anupong earlier showed his position by saying that as a military of His Majesty the King, he had no opinion on the royal petition drive on behalf of Thaksin. Gen Surayuth Chulnanont, the former prime minister and now member of the Privy Council, also brushed aside this question by saying that he had no opinion. Only Gen Phichit Kulavanitr, another member of the Privy Council, came out very strongly against the Red Shirted protestors' petition drive. He blasted the Red Shirted protestors for their attempt to politicise the Monarchy for their own interests.

During this episode, we have yet to hear the wise words of Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, the president of the Privy Council. He has been conspicuously absent from the scene. What is exactly in his mind?

There are two big issues at play now in Thai politics. The first one involves the outcome of the investigation into the assassination attempt against Sondhi. The second issue is the campaign to seek royal pardon for Thaksin. Both events are interwined, threatening to explode into a violence or a military intervention of some sort if they are now handled appropriately. Thanee's investigation has uncovered the suspects as belonging to some prominent members of the Red Camp and the Blue Camp. Of course, the Red Camp and the Blue Camp would exercise all the power at their disposal, on the ground and underground, to block the police's investigation. Many of their prominent members could go to jail as a result of this case.

What is equally threatening to the political stability is the plan of the Red Shirted protestors to submit their petition on behalf of Thaksin on August 17 to His Majesty the King. They plan to come out in the tens of thousands to make their way in fanfare to the Grand Palace to submit the petition before mobilising a rally at Sanam Luang. We all know with a good conscience that this petition is morally wrong and legally wrong. A fugitive, who does not repent his wrong-doing, is not in a position to seek a royal pardon for his jail sentence. The act of seeking royal pardon for Thaksin is an outright challenge to the impartiality of the Thai Monarchy.     

The situation on August 17 is designed to repeat the Red Shirt protestors' attempt at a People's Revolution on Songkran Day of April 13, 2009. One that day, however, they failed ignite the violence on the streets to the point that would allow a military intervention. The Blue Camp was subdued. Subsequently, the Red Shirted protestors were quashed from the streets. Now they are regrouping and planning another attack or another attempt at the People's Revolution for the benefit of one individual. If Thanee's investigation proves to have gone too far, chances of a violence would increase. A confrontation is developing to a point that the losers will be those who blink first.


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comment 16
notdisappointed date : 13/08/2009 time : 00.56


fq, youare the sly one, there you go again trying to be witty by turning meanings, allegories, and translations around. Something that Ian would do.

Barami, need not be 'evil' it can also be 'clean and pure'.

My King has Barami; do you doubt it? And thus would you care to gainsay it and not have it attributed to you?
comment 15
FelixQui date : 12/08/2009 time : 09.33
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/FelixQui

stalingrad,
Thanks for the explanation. Next time I hear talk of baramee, I'll bear in mind your example that it's the sort of thing that Hitler also had in abundance.
However, I'm less sure now that it's something I would care to have others attribute to me.
comment 14
stalingrad date : 12/08/2009 time : 08.14
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/stalingrad

FQ c.13: Baramee can be roughly translated as charisma. No moral connotation in the Thai term.

Hitler had charisma.

Sujinda has some baramee but not that much, and among a limited group of Army die-hards and reactionaries. He is more remembered as a bad decision maker in using lethal force against an demonstrators (didn't bother to use tear gas and water canons). Also, he is thought to have mishandled the political situation that led to the mass demonstration. In other words, he and his clique didn't understand politics and thought remaining in power is easy once you have force.

The result of his bungling is long lasting. Now the military is very careful when considering whether to stage a coup for fear of a mass uprising along the lines of May 1992, which they could not control.

But Sujinda in a way was lucky; he and his clique were not permanently exiled, whilst Thai politicians who did less were. That's why I think Khun Thanong talks about him having sunstantial baramee -- to the extent that he managed not to be driven to exile, to live out lonely final days in a foreign country-- like Field Marshal Pibun and others.
comment 13
FelixQui date : 11/08/2009 time : 18.29
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/FelixQui

I just noticed Thanong's caption: "Big Su still holds enormous power and barami in the Thai army."

What does "barami" mean again?
I thought it had some connection with some sort of good karma, merit etc, from having having done right, but if Suchinda has enormous barami, I've clearly misunderstood the term. It sounds more as though it means brute power and influence with no moral value whatever. Or perhaps I've misjudged Suchinda?
comment 12
notdisappointed date : 11/08/2009 time : 15.40

br, just doesn't know the difference between moral and immoral. That's what it boils down to.

fq, whatever the circumstances of who said what and when; it does show that there are subtle power alignments wihin Thai politics. Suchinda's voicing his concern is a wake-up call to those in the military who are sitting on the fence.

K. Thanong, I think that Pa Prem is wise o sit this one out. The reds have done an immoral and disgusting act through their petition. It's the government's job to vet the petition and send it onwards or dump it. Big Sua comments were enough
comment 11
stalingrad date : 11/08/2009 time : 08.01
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/stalingrad

wch c. 6: I agree with your analysis of the various outcomes.

In fact, I think you have insight. All your posts I read with interest.
comment 10
FelixQui date : 10/08/2009 time : 13.49
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/FelixQui

dryshrimp, re c.7,
Which "that man" did you have in mind? There are so many behaving like "the fish struggling before they are dying" at the moment" from all colours and directions that "that man" could be quite a few.
Perhaps we could narrow it down to the self-serving? No, that won't help very much.
Perhaps just those with power and influence? No, that doesn't help much either.

Perhaps we have to admit that there are rather a lot of "that man" types skulking out there.
comment 9
FelixQui date : 10/08/2009 time : 13.42
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/FelixQui

Panya, re c.8,
I agree completely - Yuk!
comment 8
panya date : 10/08/2009 time : 13.28
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/diversion

Suchinda 1992 is one of this country's greatest disgraces. His continued existence should be mentioned in hushed tones, if at all, in the absence of the ability to blush.

The fact that he can reappear, and people listen to him, and he gets given space in any publication, shows how sick and immoral the military and media really are.

In a land where people can be murdered so easily with no redress, how can this evil slug have avoided what he such richly deserves?

Yuk.
comment 7
dryshrimp date : 10/08/2009 time : 12.02
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/dryshrimp

Khun Thanong, have you ever seen the fish struggling before they are dying?
The supporters of that man are behaving like that..
BTW I never trust military men - Gen Suchinda, General so-and-so...
Except the one you mentioned, Big Suer.
comment 6
wch date : 10/08/2009 time : 09.14

Circumstance seems gradually to build up a justification to another coup.
The controversial figure, gen Suchinda retired (75), once pressed self-amnesty againt his coup and bloody suppression of Chamlong-led, Bangkok civilians anti-Junta demonstration in 1992, appeared publicly with a throng of generals and floated his warning to the red. What if to the yellow that houses still several leaders of 1992 uprise including Chamlong Srimuang, who defeated him ?.

Some group, market-called, 'Kua Mai' - a third polaric power group, may need his image profile which pledges, both No-No against the red and the yellow.

At moment, only two, the most possible prospectus in short term political situation would be "
One, a new coup
Two, house dissolvation.

New Coup.
One requisite is apparently clearer than Sep 19 2006 gen Sondhi-led coup. There is clear hostile group against the monarch. Therefore, the military, the royal guardian troops, can not just sit and watch things.
If they think the target is cystal clear, they must not forget several more factors if they won't make any mistake.
One, whether they can achieve support from Bangkok people or not ?
One, whether they mistake to make the yellow and the red JOIN together and all-out resistance to whole military.
One, whether they can make unity in whole armed force ?. and what if the military themselves split and fight among them ?

The Thaksin and his RED
To them, any event is welcomed. Coup or house dissolution or military dividing or disobeidance of police or anything. Thaksin deadly needs any CHANGE that overturns all the judicial process, having been done or being done in future that return his money first and a new possible thread pulling the politics. What if the fresh coup leaders could be allured and manipulated by him and the red, again, the yellow and other opposing political parties are amassed and come out in street ?.

At this point, let me say, " Coup is the fool's fire works".

House dissolution.
It will not change much in present backburning situation. The red will not stop the push of pardon business. General election is virtually killing field. Election Commission will not be able to control. They will be rather attacked or bought (local level).
Corruption will be rampant in state official levels. Economy ?. It is silly chanting. Cash is abundant in election market.
Coup mood, the eve, of, would be steam-out if the red delay the pardon push. The red will try to win the election ( in fact, possible collusion with minor parties or blue shirt to form a government). If failed to form government power, they will RESTART pardon-push to provoke the military make a COUP.

Sondhi case.
If AV press hard the investigation process, and if the course goes on due course, the military will be divided and two sides will start fighting. This is much better because it damage less whole people's lives and national reputation.
Navy and Airforce are expected to hold up the spirit of September 19 2006. With, in army, powerful machanized troop and infantry divisions will be able to suppress the rebellious or politicised military faction to give up and press them quickly retire.
If political situation goes uncertain, most of national unions, students and various pressure groups collaborate with PAD and they will come out in street in force. This will encourage 'good military' to suppress the red and the blue.

AV,
He must hold up his principle - By Law, Of Law, For Law.
To this principle, no one can find an excuse.
Wise men are more than the fools today in Thailand.
comment 5
Thanong date : 10/08/2009 time : 08.43
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/thanong

Felix and BangkokRay:
I performed to you a Chopin Nocturne. After the performance, you both said: "Sorry, Thanong, but we prefer the Beatles."
comment 4
FelixQui date : 09/08/2009 time : 23.45
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/FelixQui

And is it true that Suchinda received a pardon after his crimes in 1992? He certainly did NOT serve any time in prison so far as I recall. That seems to make him an odd choice for Thanong to highlight in an article where he again rails against the right of Thai people to petition their King.
comment 3
BangkokRay date : 09/08/2009 time : 22.03

We all know with a good conscience that this petition is morally wrong and legally wrong.


Sorry, Mr Thanong, but we all don't know with a good conscience that the petition is wrong. What we do know is that the current administration is not only illigitimate, but also desperate at this point. The govt funded anti-petition, petition is the best indication of this. Recent polls say the same thing. Three years after the coup and Thaksin is still more popular than this government. The campaign to smere Thaksin has backfired, yet you continue to talk the same thing.
Your fellow TN employee is still stumping for your cause though. Please advise all of us what the next course of action might be in the offing. Seems this govt is now on life support.
comment 2
FelixQui date : 09/08/2009 time : 21.31
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/FelixQui

And whatever his stature might continue to be with the military, I'm not sure that Suchinda is really a man whose show of support does much for Abhisit's reputation - worse even than Newin.
If he is still in favour within the military, we might reasonably ask what that says about the Thai military.
comment 1
FelixQui date : 09/08/2009 time : 21.26
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/FelixQui

If Abhisit manages to allow justice to be done in the investigation into the Sondhi assassination attempt, and if the high up instigators do go to prison, that will be an excellent precedent for Thailand and something for Abhisit to be genuinely proud of. I don't care what colour shirts they wear, it would be great for Thailand to start sending powerful people to prison when that is where they belong.

I'm less sure that the pardon petition is either legally or morally wrong, and that it is is certainly not something that "we all know with a good conscience". If Thanong means that it is illegal, that is plainly wrong. If he means it has no legal foundation to bring about the result that the Taksin group want, then that is not a problem, least of all for HM the King, whose office must accordingly point out that the King cannot legally do what they want and that they should not want it any other way in a constitutional monarchy.
Is is morally wrong? We can be fairly certain that Taksin's motives are, as usual, self-serving and deceitful, but again it isn't clear what Thanong means by "morally wrong".
Does he mean it is unjust because not legal? That seems wrong. Simply being outside of the normal legal process does not make something immoral.
Does he mean it will harm Thailand? Again, this is not obviously the case, and if it is indeed true that millions of people have signed it, doesn't that show a loud voice of a large part of the Thai people that deserves to be listened to?
Does "morally wrong" mean done for bad reasons? Whilst this might be, and probably is, true for Taksin, it is probably not so of those millions of Thai people who are claimed to have signed it (I'm waiting until it is made public before accepting any claimed number of signatures), and whose opinion surely deserves some respect. Whatever Taksin's motives might be, I don't think that Thanong can so easily write off millions of Thai citizens who plainly wish their voice to be heard.

I do, however, agree that "a fugitive, who does not repent his wrong-doing, is not in a position to seek a royal pardon for his jail sentence," and would go further to add that requesting a pardon presumes an admission of guilt, something which I don't think Taksin has yet done.
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