On June 15, 2009, the Abhisit government will introduce three important bills in Parliament for a full debate and subsequent passage. They are all about big money. It will be interesting to watch how the Bhumjai Thai Party, one of the coalition partners, will behave during the voting for these bills.

 

The first bill is a Bt400 billion loan package introduced as an executive decree. The Opposition Pheu Thai Party had protested this bill was not an emergency, forcing the government to seek a ruling from the the Constitution Court. Last week the Constitution Court ruled that this package was not unconstitutional, giving the Abhisit government a sigh of relief. The government coffers are running dry. Its borrowing requirements are hamstrung by legal complications. It desperately needs this bill to be passed so that it can keep the government machinery running and also commit on other expenditures. The second bill involves a Bt400 billion loan package for a longer-term spending commitments. Unlike the first bill, this one is introduced as an act. And the last bill is the 2010 budget.

 

It will be a testing time for Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. He will need all the artful political maneouvres to get the job done. Sathit Wongnongtoei, the minister attached to the Office of the Prime Minister, has said that all the Democrat MPs must line up at Parliament to make sure about the passage of the three bills. He also signalled that the coalition partners should also display the same commitment to pass the bills, otherwise the Thai public and the economy would stand to lose the benefits from government spending.

 

We aren't sure how the Bhumjai Thai will act during the voting, particularly the executive decree of the Bt400-billion loan package. It has been betrayed by the Democrats last Wednesday at the Cabinet meeting. Abhisit, once again, sought to delay the approval of the Bt64 billion leasing package for 4,000 NGV buses for the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority, which is under the oversight of Sophon Sarum, the transport minister. Sophon is one of the key members of the Bhumjai Thai, controlled by Newin Chidchob. There had been a tacit agreement between Newin, Suthep Thuagsuban, the deputy prime minister, and Abhisit that the bus leasing package must get approval from the Cabinet. If not, it would be impossible for the Bhumjai Thai to continue to support the government.

 

The commission in this project is so huge that it has drawn widespread negative reaction from both the public and the law-makers, particularly the Senate. Abhisit could feel the enormous heat from this leasing deal, forcing him to delay it out by order the National Economic and Social Development Board, the government's think tank, to come up with a recommendation within one month. The NESDB would study and recommend whether it is better off for the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority to lease or to buy the fleet of 4,000 NGV buses. At the same time, the Finance Ministry, under Korn Chatikavanij, is also working on a paralell study, in which it is going to suggest a lease/purchase package so that at the end of the lease term the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority would have the option to purchase the bus fleet.

 

Newin and Sophon have been very upset with the Democrats, who can't deliver the promise. The Democrats get caught in the dilemma. They also want this deal done, but they are afraid that they can't answer to the Thai society at large about the unanswered huge commission that involves. One month of NESDB's study would provide a cooling off period. But at the same time, the Democrats can also black-mail the Bhumjai Thai. If Newin really wants the bus leasing deal, his Bhumjai Thai people must vote for the passage of the Bt400-billion borrowing package next week. Newin must be doing some hard thinking now. What if the Democrats were to betray him again. He can trust Suthep, who is believed to have a control over Abhisit. But how about other Democrats? Can they all be ordered to queue up?

 

In the latest development, we have heard that the phuyai (the respected elderlies) of the Democrats would not allow the bus leasing deal to see the day light. If the bus leasing deal gets the Cabinet approval, it would signal the demise of the Democrats in Bangkok. Come the next general election, the Democrats would be voted out by the Bangkok people. The party's future is at stake.

I now bet that this bus leasing deal would be aborted. 

 

If the Bhumjai Thai were to vote down the Bt400-billion loan package in retaliation, then so be it. The Democrats could then tell the Thai public that it is the Bhumjai Thai, who torpedoes the bill which would have kep the country moving. Then Parliament would have to be dissolved. A new general election would have to be called. But the Democrats would not be alone this time. It is very likely that the Democrats would form an alliance with the People's Alliance for Democracy, which is now in the process of forming a political party called Phak Karn Muang Mai (New Politics Party).

 

As the Pheu Thai is getting smaller, the Bhumjai Thai will emerge as a formidable player in the next election. Ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is believed to be planning other sattelite parties. So basically, Thai politics will contiue to polarise between two opposing forces, this time between the Democrats & New Politics against Bhumjai Thai, Pheu Thai and all others.