By Thanong Khanthong

23:00 hours

Abhisit Vejjajiva, the prime minister, has just appeared on national TV. Flanked by Suthep Thuagsuban, the deputy prime minister in charge of security affairs, and other top security officials of the country, he declared that the turmoil all day in Bangkok has been brought under control since the evening.

He called for the Red Shirt protesters, who are now rallying in the area around the Government House, to return home as the authorities will stand by to help them.

Abhisit did not say what the government would do next against the remaining Red Shirt protesters at the Government House. But we can expect that the security forces would be zeroing into them soon to disperse the rally at the Government House.

Throughout the day, there has not been any loss of life from the security forces' cracking down on the Red Shirt protesters, who ravaged the capital through different locations, particularly at the Din Daeng intersection. There are scores of people getting injured.

The loss of lives only took place in the evening after the Red Shirt protesters reportedly shot at two persons.

  22:00 hours:

Red Shirt protesters have failed to garner critical mass support because they rely on urban terrorist tactic to plunder Bangkok. Many Bangkok residents have come out today to lash out at and attack the Red Shirt protesters.

Two people are reported to have been shot dead by the Red Shirt protesters, one at Nang Leng and the other at Wat Sommanas.

So where is Thaksin Shinawatra now? He is believed to be commanding the raid of Bangkok from Koh Kong. If the situation is ripe, he will make his way to Bangkok. But will he?

The Red Shirt protesters are now retreating to the area surrounding the Government House. They are fortifying their position from there.

The security forces are expected to quash the Red Shirt protesters tonight or tomorrow.

The government might find it necessary to declare curfew to deter movements of Red Shirt protesters and prevent them from reinforcing additional support.

Don't blink your eyes.

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20:00 hours:

On Sunday, I wrote that the stars hovering over the City of Angels were radiating exceptional heat. There could be violence starting Sunday evening. But as it turned out, the violence started exactly on Songkran Day.

My astrologer is almost right on target. To sum it up again, my amateur astrologer has told me that duang muang (the City's star) is in trouble, with the stars aligned in a complicated position. When King Yodfa founded Bangkok in 1782, the lakhana duang muang (the character of the City of Angels) was represented by the sun, which exemplified strength, boldness and grandeur.

Lakhana Duang Muang of Bangkok as marked by ancient Thai astrological codification.

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The sun is being overshadowed by neptune at the lakhana duang muang, which exists in spiritual form. This means that bad omen and events would be hovering over the capital.

Neptune is now hovering above lakhana duang muang, magnifying its influence over events in Thailand. "We might have a very serious incident this evening and it will deterioriate further," my astrologer said on Sunday.

But beginning Tuesday of April 14, 2009, Neptune will gradually move out of Lakhana Duang Muang to the right side of the Sun. This means that the bad omen or bad incidents against Bangkok will subside. The situation will improve.

Thaksin Shinawatra launched his broadside attack against the capital by also consulting the stars above the sky. He had his Red Shirt protesters ravaging Bangkok at a time when his duang or fortune hit the peak. His duang coincides with Neptune movement against the Sun or Lakhana Duang Muang of the City of Angels.

We are witnessing a fight in both the sky and on the earth.

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Analysis

18:30 hours

Thaksin Shinawatra's urban terrorist tactic to create widespread riots in Bangkok and pave the way for his return is not working, though pockets of violence is now spreading around the capital.

His strategy is simple. After torpedoing the Asean Summit in Pattaya, the Red Shirt anti-government protesters would be staging urban-style terrorism around the key points in Bangkok so that Abhisit would be forced to declare a State of Emergency. Then the military must be brought in to quash the Red Shirt protesters. While the military suppress the Red Shirt protesters, there could be bloodshed. The situation would spill out of control to create an anarchy. Finally, Thaksin's supporters would be petitioning His Majesty the King for a royal intervention or a reconciliation to end the crisis.

In this plan, Thaksin is seeking to hold Thailand as his hostage as he bargains for his amnesty. When worst comes to worst, a military coup would be launched to bring down Abhisit government.

But Thaksin's game plan is not working. First, the Red Shirt protesters' urban terrorism tactics have gone out of control to create a civil war inside the capital. Second, they have failed to mobilise enough critical mass support. Third, the Thai public, appalled by the violence and the Red Shirt clashes against the security forces, do not support the Red Shirt.

Yet the most important factor is that Prime Minsiter Abhisit Vejjajiva has managed to consolidate his power. He is now being advised by a specially assembled unit consisting of old veterans and retired generals.

Gen Anupong Paochina, the army chief, Gen Prawit Wongsuwan, and Police Chief Patcharawat Wongsuwan have been left in the cold. They were conspicuously absent during the Red Shirts' ambush of the Asean Summit venue in Pattaya. There the police and security forces turned a blind eye to the Red Shirt protesters' ambushing the Royal Cliff Beach Resort and Hotel, the venue of the Asean Summit.

Gen Anupong wore a tense face when he appeared on TV last night with Abhisit, who was trying to assure the Thai public that he would be able to bring the crisis situation under control. Gen Anupong is believed to have been kept out of any top-level decisions to manage the crisis in Bangkok.

The situation in Bangkok was tense all day as many department stores were closed and many roads were blocked. The Red Shirt protesters employed the urban terrorist tactic to ravage the capital in different locations, ranging from Din Daeng, Ayutthaya Road, Victory Monument, Phan-fa, Yomaraj, the Royal Plaza. They used public buses to block the streets, installed three gas-tank trucks at Din Daeng, Ayutthaya Road and Soi Rangnam near Victory Monument and threw petro bombs, sticks and bricks at the security.

The Red Shirt's tactic is similar to that employed by the Krathingdaeng Group, which in the October 1979 crisis played a catalyst role in suppressing students in Thammasat University. An ex-general by the abbreviated name of P.P. was believed to be the mastermind behind this terrorist tactic.

As for the three gas-tank trucks, authorities identified them as coming from Siam Gas Plc, of which Gen Chaiyasith Shinawatra is serving as chairman. Gen Chaiyasith, a cousin of Thaksin, denied that he had nothing to do with the gas-tank trucks.

Suchon Chaleekrua, the former Senate speaker, led a group of Thaksin's supporters including Pol Gen Salang Bunnag, to submit a petition to His Majesty the King. The language of the petition was vague, requesting the King to make a royal intervention to end the crisis. Gen Somjate Boomthanom, a former member of the 2006 coup, came out to question the motif behind the royal petition because Suchon and other petitioners all had close ties with Thaksin.

Thaksin has just appeared on CNN, blaming the security forces for shooting his Red Shirt supporters. He did not mention at all how the Red Shirt protesters had been ravaging the capital throughout the day by burning public buses and destroying public properties.

Military personnel from Lop Buri, Prachinburi and Nakhon Rachasima have been brought into the capital to reinforce the security forces. The authorities would be using both soft and harsh measures to disperse the Red Shirt protesters, who have used the surrounding areas of the Government House as their headquarters.

Abhisit is now determined to quash the Red Shirt protesters rather than allowing them to prolong the crisis further.

A curfew may be announced this evening to allow the security forces to quash the Red Shirt protesters gathering around the Government House.

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12:00 hours: HAPPY SONGKRAN DAY

Abhisit Vejjajiva, the prime minister, has managed to reposition himself by consolidating his power amid the growing political crisis. Before noon, he appeared on national TV to assert to the Thai public that he was now in charge. All the key military top brass were accompanying him on TV, wearing a grim look on their faces.

The dark plot against Abhisit has failed, at least for now.

Last night there was flurrying of activities among the military top brass. The military clique, which supports ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra or which would like to exploit the political crisis arising from the confrontation between the Red Shirt protesters and the Abhisit government, was subdued. They could not move.

A military coup could be staged, but it would be virtually impossible to get a Royal endorsement.

As prime minister, Abhisit now enjoys the utmost power in the land. The announcement of the State of Emergency rests all the power in his hand. If the situation fails to improve, Abhisit can continue to keep the State of Emergency for six months or the full year.

Abhisit is digesting the mistakes of both Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat, who as prime ministers, failed to use the power of the premiership during their face-off with the military and the Yellow Shirt protesters last year.

We are now seeing a more confident Abhisit, compared to a wobbling prime minister over the past few days when the Red Shirt protesters succeeded in torpedoing the Asean Summit in Pattaya.

The dark plot is designed to bring down Abhisit. The Red Shirt protesters, commanded by Thaksin from the overseas, are acting as a catalyst. The protesters, fortified themselves at the Government House, would be conducting widespread espionage around the capital to justify a military intervention.

Once the military stage a coup, Thaksin would be making a return to join the Red Shirt protesters. Thaksin has been calling for a people's revolution, exactly a replay of the Yellow Shirt's plot but for a completely different purpose.

Only through a military coup would it be possible for Thaksin to make a comeback. But we are witnessing an intriguing situation because it is never certain whether the military would stage a coup on behalf of Thaksin or whether they would exploit the whole crisis to launch a coup for their own benefits.

Earlier, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has assured the nation that there is no disharmony within the government as well as key agencies responsible for enforcing law and order.

In a late-night television address, Abhisit was flanked by all key government, military and police leaders, a setting apparently intended to stamp out persistent speculation that he was losing support of top police and military officers.

He said the rumours were intended to weaken the government which has been trying to restore law and order through peaceful means.

"There have been a lot of rumours and I would like the Thai media to report on the truth to the Thai public," he said.

Abhisit must have realised about the dark plot by now -- who are his enemies or who are his friends. We cannot  undersestimate the power of a Thai premiership, entrusted to exerice the State of Emergency. Abhisit vows to bring law and order back to the capital. 

The scene in Bangkok now is tumultuous, particularly at the Rachaprarob area leading to Pratunam where a contingent of military is facing off the Red Shirt protesters. There has not been any report of fatal injuries.

Crackdown at dawn

At least 77 were injured as troops, firing tear gas and shots into the air, moved in to retake the Din Daeng intersection near Victory Monument from protesters.

Troops, firing shots into the air, have apparently retaken control of the Din Daeng intersection from red-shirted protesters, according to TV news reports. There were reportedly some injuries but no immediate reports of death.

At least 77 people suffered minor injuries, many from tear gas, according to hospital reports. About five persons were seriously injured. The red-shirted movement claimed "several" of its members suffered gunshot wounds, and condemned the authorities' use of live bullets in the crackdown.

TV news footage showed soldiers firing shots into the air. Tear gas was also fired, TV reporters at the scene said. A few hundred troops were involved in the operation.

At around 7.20 am, the government announced it was in control of the situation at Din Daeng.

The clash took place around 4 am and left about 50 soldiers and protesters injured, it was reported. Gunshots were still heard after 5 am, but not as intensely as when the crackdown began.

One TV reporter quoted "runaway" protesters as saying that there might have been some deaths. The government reported no death.

The troops were pushing from the Din Daeng intersection toward the Victory Monument. Protesters were scattered and retreated from the intersection to the moment. It appeared that the troops were in almost complete control of the Din Daeng intersection after 6 am.

Col Sansern Kaewkamnerd, Army spokesman, said 300 protesters were in the area when security forces including soldiers and police moved in. He said the troops first tried to negotiate with the protesters, who were allegedly armed with molotov cocktails and tear gas themselves.

He said the talks broke down after some protesters tried to ram buses against the troops.  

"The troops had to fire into the air. I repeat. They fired into the air and took action against the protesters," he said.

13:00 Hours:

Further crackdown this evening 

It is clear that Abhisit would not tolerate a prolonged confrontation against the Red Shirt anti-government protesters. Allowing the turmoil to spread throughout Bangkok could make the situation go out of control.

The situation is now bordering on a civil war. The Red Shirt leaders at the Government House have expelled reporters from the area as they map out a defensive strategy to hold on to their position.

Military personnel from the provinces are being shipped into the capital to take on the Red Shirt protesters at the Government House. Starting this evening, we can expect to see the military move into the Government House area to disperse the crowd. The key Red Shirt leaders could be nabbed.

So between now and the next one or two days, we might see some violent clashes if the Red Shirt protesters insist on fighting back and refusing to disperse.

Meanwhile, there has been a plea for the Abhisit government to exercise restraint, patience and diplomacy to deal with the Red Shirt protesters. The Association of Thai Journalists has called on the government to seek a truce with the Red Shirt leaders. The Pheu Thai MPs, who support the Red Shirt rally, should use Parliament as a forum to defuse the crisis.

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13.35 hours:

Official Statement from the Government House

T oday (13 April 2009) at 7.45 hrs, Dr. Panitan Wattanayagorn, Deputy Secretary-General to the Prime Minister and acting Government Spokesperson and Colonel Sansern Kaewkamnerd, Spokesman of the Royal Thai Army gave a televised briefing on the newly announced Prime Minister’s order to establish a Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation (CRES).  

Dr. Panitan said that following the declaration by the Prime Minister yesterday of the state of emergency in Bangkok Metropolitan area and several vicinities in five provinces, the Prime Minister has ordered the establishment of the Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation (order No. 98/2552).   Additionally the Prime Minister also ordered the prohibition of road blockades to enable the normal flow of traffics – Announcement following Section 11(6) of the Emergency Decree on the Public Administration in Emergency Situations B.E. 2548 (2005).

Early this morning, around 4 am, after the announcement of the use of the order to prohibit road blockades, the officers at Din Daeng junction encountered a group of protestors who attempted to block the roads by using a bus.   The officers then informed the protestors present in that area of the announcement of anti-road blockade order and negotiated with the protestors to stop the blockade.   However, the protestors did not listen to the officials and drove the bus into the crowd of officers.    The officers then fired a warning shot into the air to warn the protestors, followed by firing tear gas and took control of the situation. The action taken by officers started with the basic measures and thereafter progressively stepped up to more intense ones.   In the clash that took place, a few people were injured while a few other people were detained and were taken to a safe place.

Dr. Panitan reiterated that in dispersing the groups of protestors, the Government has taken action in a transparent manner and taken due consideration of the safety of the people.   He also asked the general public to place their trust in the Government in handling of the situation and cooperate with the Government by informing the newly established centre of any information that might be useful.   The Government ensures that whatever action it takes will be in accordance with the law and the democratic principles.   And throughout today, there will be periodic briefings by several high-level officials involved in the resolution of the emergency situation.

Following the briefing by Dr. Panitan, Colonel Sansern added that the clash began by the protestors firing tear gas at a crowd of officers, thereafter drove the bus that was used as a blockade directly into them.   In an attempt to control the situation, the officers fired a gunshot up into the air -   not directly at the protestors – to warn the protestors and encourage them to move away from the scene.   Then, the officers had to use tear gas, sticks and shields in order to protect themselves.
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