March 3, 2009

Over the weekend, lightning struck the Merlion statue, Singapore's ultimate icon. The statue is situated at the mouth of the Singapore River.

Is this a sign of bad omen for Singapore, which is going through a difficult economic time ahead?

Bad omen?

Singapore is a modern state, a financial and commodity trading centre. Most of its people might not have superstitious belief, but some of them could not help wonder why lightning struck the Merlion statue during this time.

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I reported about Temasek's losses last month. Here is goes:

February 9, 2009

Temasek takes severe hit
By Thanong Khanthong
The Nation

CEO Ho Ching's exit won't alter fortunes of the sovereign wealth fund in short term

Ho Ching's resignation as CEO will not help Temasek Holdings dispel heavy losses of about 40 per cent of Singapore's sovereign wealth fund amid the global financial market meltdown.

Ho Ching

The Government Investment Corporation of Singapore (GIC) is also suffering similar heavy losses.

An investment analyst in Singapore said Temasek's results will be released in April. He estimated that of its US$125-billion (Bt4.3 trillion) portfolio as of March 2008, Temasek would have lost 40 per cent, leaving it with about US$75 billion.

As for the GIC, the investment analyst said it would also lose more than a third of the value of its investment portfolio.

"GIC started the crisis with roughly Singapore $550 billion in reserves. My estimate is that it has lost about $190 billion to $200 billion of that, leaving it with about $350 billion. This amount is equivalent to 200 per cent of Singapore's gross domestic product," he added.

"So both have lost money but their performance has not been out of line with other large funds, possibly a bit better. These are all worst-case estimates."

Ho, the wife of Prime Minister Lee Hsieng Loong, announced last week that after almost seven years at the helm of Temasek, she would step down by October this year to be succeeded by Chip Goodyear, a former CEO of BHP Billiton Ltd. He will be the first foreigner to run the sovereign wealth fund.

Temasek Holdings was set up with proceeds from the privatisation of Singapore's state-owned firms, while GIC invested the international reserves of the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Both represent the investment vehicles of the Singapore state, which has eyed a global reach with its investment.

The transition is taking place at a time when Singapore is suffering its worst economic problems since the 1960s. Temasek, which racked a return of about 17 per cent a year since its inception in 1974, is also going to face a drastic restructuring of its investment strategy.

Under her leadership, Temasek embarked on audacious acquisitions in China, Asia, Europe and the United States.

Temasek's buy-out of Shin Corp, previously owned by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, in January 2006, sparked political turmoil in Thailand followed by a military coup in September that year.

Ho's resignation has also sparked a debate inside Singapore.

Tharman Shangmugaratnam, the finance minister, preferred to handle the issue diplomatically, saying Ho's departure was not linked to the performance of Temasek's investments.

"Whether this is a way of making a change of someone who is related to the prime minister, this has been a point that I've dealt with since the first day Ho Ching was appointed as CEO. I was very instrumental in bringing in Ho Ching and it was based purely on merit and has nothing to do with her relationship to anyone," he said.

The investment analyst in Singapore said Ho's resignation was planned for about a year.

"I don't think it has much to do with Temasek's performance. This is Singapore, favoured people are not made to resign for performance. I think Singapore leaders are more concerned about the sovereign wealth fund issue. It becomes more difficult to defend Singapore's sovereign wealth fund as a non-state actor with no political agenda if the wife of the prime minister is running it," he said.

Singapore's economy is facing a severe downturn, with growth rate plunging into negative territory. "We recently revised downward our GDP forecast to minus 2.8 per cent to reflect the likelihood that the contraction in the first half of 2009 could be deeper than previously expected," said Citi's Asia Economic Outlook and strategy on January 23.

"Advance estimates for the fourth quarter of 2008 showed a contraction of 2.6 per cent from a year ago, down sharply from 0.3 per cent the previous quarter. On a quarter on quarter seasonally adjusted annualised rate, the fourth quarter GDP contracted 16.9 per cent - the worst on record," the report said.

Singapore recently entered into a currency-swap arrangement with the US Federal Reserve, which has worked out the swap arrangements with selected countries, including Brazil and Korea, to avert the financial crisis.

Unlike Korea, which has drawn down the currency swap arrangement, Singapore has not yet drawn down the swap.