Wednesday, October 8, 2008

As the police were shooting tear gas at the antigovernment protesters in front of the Metropolitan Police Command headquarters throughout the evening of Tuesday, the Army reinforced its troops at the nearby Sanam Suapa. The military was signalling that it was helping the police to try to maintain peace in the capital.

So whose side the military belong to?

At least at this critical juncture, the Army under Army Chief Gen Anupong Paochinda appeared to be supporting Somchai Wongsawat, the prime minister. The People's Alliance for Democracy has been staging antigovernment rallies by banking on hopes that if the People Power Party-led government does not resign under pressure, the military would come to its side to force the government out openly or discreetly.

Read my lips: I don't know yet.

The PAD is now caught in its own trap. As hopes of military support fades away, the PAD can only get out of this trap with more reinforcement from the critical mass, who must number more than 100,000 at least.

Earlier in the day, Somchai assured that the military would not stage a coup and pointed to the military, including Anupong, standing behind him as having given him the assurance. Somchai was having a meeting with the top military brass to assess the crisis situation. In the morning, police suddenly changed tactics by playing hardball and using tear gas and weapons to disperse the crowd surrounding Parliament. The PAD would like to disrupt the Somchai government's making policy address to Parliament.

There were clashes between the protesters, who numbered between 20,000 to 30,000 and the police throughout the long day with a death toll of two and hundreds of injuries. Several lost their legs and hands as weapons of destruction were employed.

It looked like a mini civil war in the capital. But the police forces did not belong to the Metropolitan Police Command Centre. They were largely members of the Border Patrol Police, who kept on shooting tear gas at the crowd without any second thought. The ex-police chief has been speculated as playing a key role in bringing in the Border Patrol Police to take on the protesters.

Gen Anupong insisted that he would not stage a military coup again. "Staging a coup is easy. But running the country afterward will bring more problems," he said.

His appearance with Somchai brought pain to the protesters, who were mad that the police suddenly employed weapons against them. Sondhi Limthongkul, one of the PAD's leaders, attacked Gen Anupong for choosing to stay with the government instead of supporting the people.

Late in the evening, the protesters retreated to the Government House, where they had been occupying for a month and a half. Suriyasai Katasila, one of the leaders of the PAD, warned that the riot police might storm the Government House to disperse the protesters.

The violence took place for a second time after the clashes on September 2, which led the Samak government to declared a State of Emergency. It occurred two weeks before the Supreme Court is to issue a verdict on ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife Khunying Pojama Shinawatra in the Rachadapisek land deal. The couple, who has jumped bail, has already sought an asylum to the British authorities.

Yesterday Thaksin also wrote an opinion piece in the Financial Times calling for Asian countries to develop the Asia bond market as one of the ways to mitigate from the US financial crisis. Thaksin's PR machine always works the perfect timing.

It is ironic that Thaksin is prescribing solution for the world but he does not have a solution for his own country. 

The crisis situation is similar to a buildup of the May Tragedy in 1992 when the Suchinda government employed forces to disperse the crowd from the Rachadamnoen Road. Then there were more than 200,000 people on the streets, with Lt Gen Chamlong Srimuang as the leader.

Now Chamlong is also the leader of the PAD; but he is issuing orders of the last war from prison, banking on more support from the Bangkok middle class and the Thais from other parts of the country.

With the loss of lives, it will be difficult for the Somchai government to hang on. It has lost its legitimacy to rule. Pressure will mount for the Somchai government to resign.

But if the PAD fails to rally the critical mass to its support, it will be dealt with by police forces. Protesters inside the Government House will be quashed.

The military is coolly letting all sides to guess its ultimate motives. Some observers begin to speculate that the military will tip the balance when it knows for sure who will emerge the winner between the protesters and the government. It is all about power play.