February 4, 2008

Now that Samak Sundaravej is prime minister, will he have to listen to every instruction of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra? There is almost a 15-year gap between Samak and Thaksin.

As soon as he was appointed prime minister, Samak felt that he probably did not have to listen to anybody. He expressed his disappointment with the tentative list of Cabinet sent to him. He did not want the "ugly guys" to join his Cabinet.

Thaksin must feel headache with Samak by now because Samak can be unpredictable. Other People Power Party allies are feeling the same.

If Samak wants to be his own self -- as he always does -- what would happen next? Once he is in power, naturally he wants to stay for the long haul.

Uhmmmmmmm................................................

Samak has told Thaksin that he would like to stay on at least two years before leaving the office. If Thaksin wants him to introduce amnesty legislation for the 111 former executives of the defunct Thai Rak Thai, Samak would do it -- but no over the next three months or six months as Thaksin would like him to do.

On Sunday Samak told the reporters, who were treated with the food from his kitchen skill, that the government would introduce the amnesty legislation when the government had been in office for some time and would go in three months' time. Then it would be appropriate to do it.

Since Samak would like to be in office for at least two to three years before introducing the amnesty legislation or rewrite the constitution, he thinks that he deserves a better Cabinet. He has rocked the boat by trying the change the proposed list of Cabinet. For instance, he is not happy with the education, transport and communication and finance portfolios.

He has tried to change at least 12 Cabinet portfolios, much to Thaksin's dismay!

Samak's aim to stay in office for two to three years also reflects in his announcement that his government would be investing Bt500 billion int the mega-projects and water system to improve Thailand's infrastructure. 

But Thaksin would like Samak to stay in office for three months of six months during which time his priority is to work on amnesty legislation for the 111 former executives of Thai Rak Thai.

Thaksin is now fuming with rage. He flew from Hong Kong to London as an unhappy man.

A senior executive of People Power Party recently said: "It is very difficult to control Samak." 

The old Samak is rebelling again.

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February 4, 2008

It's the military, stupid!

Samak Sundaravej, the prime minister, is upset with a Defence Ministry law, effective since February 1, 2008. He was not aware of it. Neither was ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Apparently, very few people were aware of this piece of legislation. The National Legislative Assembly passed this legislation unnoticed, while the People Power Party was celebrating the election victory.

Defence minister without teeth?

This Defence Ministry law is designed to block the politics from interferring in the military reshuffle. In the past, the politics could conveniently meddle in the military reshuffle to suit its interest.

But under the new law, military reshuffling of personnel at the generalship level falls under the vetting of a committee consisting of the defence minister, the deputy defence minister, the permanent secretary for defence, the supreme commander, the navy commander, the army commander, the air force commander.

The defence minister will serve as chairman of this committee, while the permanent secretary for defence will also serve as secretary to this committee.

As defence minister, Samak had aimed to reshuffle the first round of military reshuffle in April first. Those loyal to the now defunct Council of National Security, the military body who staged the 2006 coup, would be moved out of key positions. Then in October, the Samak government would like to move Gen Anupong Paojinda, the army chief, out of his powerful post to become supreme commander.

Once this game plan could be worked out, the military would be under the government's control.

But it is not going to be easy now for the Samak government to have a say in the reshuffling of the military personnel, unless it can win support from the military.

There are three battles being fought off in Thailand -- the battle of politics, the battle of the military and the battle of the judiciary. Thaksin has won the battle of politics. The People Power Party has won the election. Samak is about to form his Cabinet.

Yet Thaksin is not yet certain to win the battle of the military. The battle of the judiciary has yet to begin.

You have to take notice that the Judiciary has handed down several crucial decisions since 2006 that changed the tide of politics. First, it ruled against the privatisation of Egat while Thaksin was in office. Second, it nullified the April 2, 2006 election. Third, it sentenced the members of the Election Commissions to prison. Fourth, it ruled to dissolve the Thai Rak Thai Party and banned 111 party executives from politics for five years.

There were rumours that Thaksin has been attempting to negotiate with Anupong so that he can return to Thailand next month. Indeed, Noppadol Pattama, Thaksin's lawyer who will serve as foreign minister in the Samak government, has also hinted that Thaksin would return to Thailand earlier than May this year.

Would Thaksin return to Thailand during this time when he is not certain that he can secure an ally in the military? The key lies in Anupong. Also, is he also sure that he and his wife, Khunying Pojaman, would prevail in the court of justice over allegations of corruptions?

This year will be the year of the great unravelling.

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