Over the next two weeks, the Rose Apple Cabinet (Khor Ror Mor Chomphu) should be holding its first meeting. On the agenda, according to a classified nominee document, is an emergency financial package to guarantee the price of rose apple.

Rose apple has now become the favourite national Thai fruit, replacing durian and mango. But the price of rose apple is crashing.

Before Samak Sundaravej led the People Power Party to the election victory in December 2007, the price of rose apple was stable at around Bt30 a kilo. After his appointment as prime minister earlier this week, rose apple saw its price plummeting to Bt15 a kilo.

Samak rushes to save rose apple price from crashing

Farm economists are pondering whether there is any correlation between Samak’s appointment as prime minister and the fall of rose apple price.

They don’t understand either why the price of rose apple is falling like a rock, while all the other prices, from shampoo, noodles, meat, fish to chewing gum in Thailand are now shooting through the roof.

The top members of the People Power Party are afraid that without an emergency financial package to bail out the rose apple orchards, several hundred thousand planters of rose apple will be swept under.

In three months’ time, the price of rose apple may fall further to Bt5 a kilo. By the end of the year, it will surely hit Bt1.75 per kilo.

If this were allowed to happen, it would deal a big blow to the pride of the national Thai fruit. The Caravan of the Rose Apple Planters would surround the Government House and demand that heads roll.

By that time Samak might have to resign in disgrace over his failure to tackle the rose apple affair.

If you look at the line-up of the Rose Apple Cabinet, you’ll immediately understand that it won’t be easy for Samak to tackle the rose apple crisis.

The Rose Apple Cabinet is made up with coalition partners of totalling six political parties. Coming from different regions of Thailand, they speak different dialects. They have their own cultures and customs to observe.

To complicate matters, they are all nominee ministers. They aren’t sure whether they speak for themselves or as nominees for others.

Samak will have to show his strong leadership from day one, although he has admitted that he is a nominee for ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. He is willing to work as nominee for Thaksin on any national policies. He does not care.

But when it comes to the issue of rose apple, Samak has made it clear to Thaksin that he would like to be Samak himself.

Samak has already thanked his friends for giving him the political support. He has also warned his enemies to give him time to do his job. Naturally, Samak would like to deal with the rose apple policy by himself because it is a subject close to his heart, if not his nose.

If he can demonstrate his leadership to the 63 million Thais that he can tackle the rose apple crisis, he will certainly go down to history as one of Thailand’s most popular leaders. His popularity rating will shoot up more than that of Hilary Clinton.

Samak realises that it is not easy to preside over the Rose Apple Cabinet. Proposing the emergency bailout package for rose apple will need friendly cooperation from the Chat Thai Party.

The Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives Ministry has jurisdiction over rose apple fruit. Somsak Prisnananthakul, a senior member of the Chat Thai Party, will head this ministry.

Samak has fought in vain for the People Power Party to control the Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives Ministry so that he can supervise the country’s rose apple policy directly.

But quota politics is too complicated to sort out. Worst is the fact that Samak does not trust the Chat Thai at all. Banharn Silapa-archa, the Chat Thai leader, has picked up a knife and is ready draw blood from Samak.

Since Somsak is a nominee for Banharn, it is all the more difficult to have him introduce the financial package to bail out rose apple. Before Somsak can work out the package, he will have to consult Banharn first. If Banharn says "no", the bailout package won't see day light.

We all know that Banharn would never give Samak any credit. Since rose apple is the life-and-death's policy of Samak, Banharn will be happy to sit on it.

In the event that Samak could reach a deal with Banharn by giving him the premiership seat after a year, Banharn might be willing to let Somsak propose the financial package for rose apple in the Cabinet.

But wait a minute, who is paying the bill? Dr Surapong Suebwonglee, the secretary-general of the People Power Party, will become finance minister. It is Surapong who will pay the bill for the rose apple planters.

Samak is not sure who has more power between him and Surapong. He has to keep repeating that he IS the prime minister.

But can he order Surapong to dig into the government treasuries for Bt3 billion to finance the bail-out pakcage for rose apple? Or should he consult this matter directly with Surapong or should he talk it out with Thaksin? Is Surapong, like him, a nominee of Thaksin?

To be sure, Surapong would not want Somsak to gain the credit for introducing the bailout package for the rose apple farmers when Somsak does not have a penny in his pocket. It is Surapong who looks after the national coffers.

The decision making process is not expected to be smooth. As Dr Thanong Bidaya is likely to be the shadow finance minister, Surapong will have to consult him first. Thanong will be screening all the documents and proposals coming out of Surapong's office before they get the final approval. In effect, Surapong is a nominee for Thanong.

If you think that Thanong, as the shadow finance minister, has full authority to make fiscal and monetary decisions on behalf of the Rose Apple Cabinet, you are completely wrong. He is working on behalf of Thaksin, who is now residing in Hong Kong or London, wherever.

Once Thanong approves all the documents and proposals from the Finance Ministry, they will be sent to Thaksin in Hong Kong or London wherever for final approval. Again, if you think that things are settled once Thaksin approves the Finance Ministry's documents and proposals, then you are competely wrong.

Thaksin is a nominee for his wife, Pojaman. Once Thaksin approves the Finance Ministry's documents and proposals, he will have to send them back via DHL to Pojaman for final approval. Only then can we assume that the matters are settled.

If, in the end, Surapong has to finance the bailout package, he would change its name so that the Thai people and the whole world understands that the package belongs to the People Power Party -- not the Chat Thai Party. The package might be renamed as Rose Apple Ua Arthon Price Guarantee Package For People Power For Democracy, or something else along this line.

Samak is not sure whether he should consult Thaksin again over the rose apple financial package once Surapong has got the approval from Thanong, who has got the approval from Thaksin, who finally has got approval from Pojaman. Because he has been told that as a nominee, he is obliged to consult Thaksin every subject matter.

Eventually, the rose apple financial package might go round and round until DHL loses it somewhere in the post box.

Another thing on Samak's mind is that he would like to promote rose apple as a truly national sweet fruit. Parliament will have to issue a legislation to proclaim rose apple as national sweet fruit replacing durian and mango.

Samak is not sure which is a priority between a rose apple legislation and an amnesty legislation for the 111 former executives of the defunct Thai Rak Thai Party. To test the water, the People Power should go for the rose apple legislation first. Working on the amnesty legislation before the rose apple legislation is too risky, politically speaking.

Still, Samak can't trust the coalition partners. During the votes for the House Speaker, some coalition partners cast their vote for the Democrats. They would like to send out a signal that they were ready to walk away any time if their demands were not made.

If his government were to introduce the rose apple legislation, it would have to be sure that it could muster more than half of the votes, otherwise the government would collapse. Then how can Thailand explain to the whole wide world that its government has resigned because of the rose apple bill?