Tuesday, Jan 22, 2008

Thaksin seeks monkhood

Phra Phrom Vajirayarn, the abbot of Wat Yannawa in Bangkok, has confirmed the rumours that ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra would like to enter monkhood once he returned to Thailand. Thaksin had floated this idea in late 2007 that he would like to become a monk to pay respect to His Majesty the King, the abbot told Matichon newspaper.

Thaksin had two temples in mind. The first one was Wat Nongwaeng in Khon Kaen, the Northeast. He used to go through a ritual to remove his bad luck at this temple during his fight an asset concealment case in 2001. The other temple was Wat Rongtham Sammakhi in Chiang Mai, which is his home town.

Yet, in spite of the victory of the People Power Party at the polls, the political situation was not stable enough. Thaksin decided to cancel his trip home and enter monkhood.

You may want to refer to Thai history. In 1976, Field Marshal Thanom Kittikhachorn returned to Bangkok after an exile. He immediately entered monkhood. In the Thai beliefs, once you enter monkhood, you somehow show an act of repentance of your past sins.

The students rose to oppose Thanom's return, an event that eventually led to a brutal massacre in Thammasat University.

Is history going to repeat itself if Thaksin does indeed decide to return to Thailand and enter monkhood immediately? What would happen after that?

Noppadol Patama, one of Thaksin's key aides, would not confirm that the former premier would like to enter monkhood, saying that it was just a rumour. But he did say that Thaksin would return to Thailand in April.

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Democracy is returning to Thailand in a reluctant way. After about 17 months that the military stepped in to remove Thaksin from power, we are witnessing politics returning to full cycle. Thaksin's supporters have made a come back, with slightly more than half of the popular votes to lead the next government.

Thaksin has played it safe by bringing in all the other political parties as coalition partners so that the government would have support of 315 MPs out of 480 MPs. This would prevent any single bloc from betraying or pulling out its support to destabilise the government.

Several foreign analysts now believe that the stage is set for Thaksin's return after his people have consolidated their power to ensure his safety comeback.

 Yuth, the Refrigerator, has been appointed as House Speaker. He is rewarded for his royalty to Thaksin. We know that Thaksin prefers those who fight for him wholeheartedly, such as Yongyuth Tiyaphairat, Chakraphob Penkhae or Newin Chidchob.

House Speaker is the chief of the legislative branch. Yongyuth has been tasked with this job because there could be attempts to push out a legislative amnesty for the 111 former executives, including Thaksin, of the Thai Rak Thai, who have been banned from politics for five years.

Samak Sundaravej, yet still, looks likely to become prime minister. Last Friday Snoh Thienthong, the leader of the Pracharaj Party, joked that Samak's PM desk looked small during a news conference to announce the formation of the coalition government. Samak replied that he would serve as prime minister for a short term.

This premiership affair still looks fishy. We don't know what will happen next. Once Samak has become prime minister or Chalerm Yoobamrung interior minister, would they easily release their grip on power?

There is another important issue to watch. Will the People Power stage a confrontation against the military establishment?

Thaksin would not easily forgive the military who staged a coup against him and also the members of the Asset Examination Committee, who goes after his family's assets and build up criminal cases against him and his wife.

The appointment of the defence portfolio will provide some clue. Earlier, there was a report that Samak would hold the premiership and the defence ministership concurrently. Another report suggested that the defence post would go to Gen Rueongroj Mahasaranont, the former supreme commander.

The question is whether the Samak government dares to remove Gen Anupong Paochinda, the army chief, who played a key role in the coup? Gen Anupong still has three years left in power before his mandatory retirement. What would happen if Anupong decides to fight back?

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 Dr Lieap to become finance minister?

Will Dr Surapong Suebwonglee take the helm as finance minister? He is the People Power Party's secretary-general, who has escaped the axe of the Constitutional Tribunal's ruling that banned 111 former executives of the Thai Rak Thai from politics. He is also a close aide of both Thaksin and Khunying Pojaman Shinawatra.

Another candidate for the finance portfolio is Dr Olarn Chaipravat.

Surapong has not 100% confirmed that he would serve as finance minister. But if appointed, he said, he would go ahead to remove the 30 per cent reserve requirements of the Bank of Thailand and stimulate investment and consumption. He would send out a signal that business is back as usual.

Somebody said he was simply a novice. To which Surapong said, "A novice. Then what?"