January 9, 2008

5:00 PM: So she is backkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk.

Khunying Pojaman Shinawatra has made a big political gamble. She has decided to return to Thailand after about six months of self-exile to accomplish a number of important missions.

First, she would like to tackle the Cabinet line-up and play a role in picking the premiership.

Second, she would like to convey a message that she is, well,  a royalist.

Third, she would like to find a way to seek a truce with Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, the president of the Privy Council.

Fourth, she would be determined to fight the corruption charges against her and her husband ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Fifth, her return will serve as an overture for the possible comeback of her husband.   

After placing bond worth Bt5 million, she will not be allowed to travel abroad until she goes through the judicial process all the way. In a way, she surrenders herself as a hostage, while Thaksin plots further moves.

The timing is very critical.

The People Power Party, of which her husband ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is believed to be a big time sponsor, is scrambling to put together a coalition government. It is not an easy task at all when it comes to the leadership question.

Apparently, both Thaksin and Pojaman do not trust Samak Sundaravej to serve as prime minister. Samak has outlived his usefulness. He has been brought in to head the People Power Party in the last minute to lead the party into the election. The defunct Thai Rak Thai lost 111 executives in the Constitution Tribunal, making it difficult to find a new seller leader going into the December 23 election.

Samak has done his job in leading the People Power Party to win almost 50 per cent of Parliament. He deserves to be Thailand's next prime minister -- well, he thinks so.

But the financiers do not think so. Samak is too divisive. Allowing to become prime minister would create further rifts in the Thai society. He might wreck everything.

Maybe Samak would be allowed to serve as prime minister for a brief period before he is removed by impending charges against him. Then Banharn would step in for his last act of self-glorification.

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The Thaksin camp has been quick to point out that Pojaman would like to come back to pay respect to HRH Princess Galyani Vahdana, who passed away on New Year Day. Pojaman and her encourage wore black during this mourning period. Before heading for an exile, Pojaman wore yellow. However, Thaksin's supporters then preferred to wear red. 

On Tuesday evening, Pojaman made an unceremonious appearance. She was seen sitting behind the back of Gen Surayud Chulanont, the prime minister, at the religious ceremony held for Princess Galyani at the Royal Grand Palace. We do not know whether they talked to each other or not. But Surayud must have felt a shriver at his spine. 

There were rumours that Thaksin has sent Kanathi Suphamongol, a Thai Rak Thai founder and former foreign minister, to meet with Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, the president of the Privy Council, to seek a truce. Yet nothing transpired.

Thaksin decided to send Pojaman on an airplane to Bangkok in order to test the water. If the People Power Party succeeds in forming the coalition government, he would like to return home possibly on Songkran Day.

Is the network still alive? Do the people still love him? Will it be safe for him to return home? Will he prevail at the court of justice?

Now the country is equally divided between those who love Thaksin and those who do not love him. As witnessed in the polls, the People Power Party earned more than 14 million votes in the popular votes, about 200,000 votes higher than the Democrat Party.

Is he a good man or is he not?

Only the Court of Justice can tell. The power struggle over the past two years is entering its final phase when the judges will be handing down the verdicts that will shape the outcome of politics in a dramatic way.

Who could have imagined that the Court nullified the April 2 election last year before dissolving the Thai Rak Thai Party in May this year and also barring its 111 executives from politics for five years?

We are about to witness judicial activism at play.

Thaksin will only return if he is certain that his people are locked in all the key positions, that his safety is guaranteed and that he will prevail in the Court of Justice. He can return any time but once he sets foot in Thailand, he will, like his wife, become a hostage.