Thanong

Thanong Khanthong
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Tuesday , July 31 , 2007

Baht Floats with High Tide

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 831 , 22:46:05

Tuesday, July 31, 200710:45 PM: I think it would be better to open a new blog on the baht crisis. The previous one is already too long. I would like, if you don't mind, to copy my latest report on Dr Olarn Chaipravat's view on the baht management. This would help us continue our long, arduous journey into the complex world of foreign exchange. (This is a slightly revised version from the printed one)....

Tuesday, July 31, 200710:45 PM: I think it would be better to open a new blog on the baht crisis. The previous one is already too long. I would like, if you don't mind, to copy my latest report on Dr Olarn Chaipravat's view on the baht management. This would help us continue our long, arduous journey into the complex world of foreign exchange. (This is a slightly revised version from the printed one)....

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Wednesday , July 18 , 2007

Help! We Are Drowning in the Sea of $$$$$$$$$...

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 3614 , 22:00:25

Tuesday, July 31, 20070:10 AM: Oh, no, it is already a new day. Let's read some hot stuff.Central bank is failing to act in halting currency rise, says OlarnPublished on July 31, 2007By Thanong KhanthongIf the Bank of Thailand had intervened in the foreign exchange market sufficiently, it would not only have gained profits but would also have succeeded in arresting the baht's rise, said Dr Olarn Cha....

Tuesday, July 31, 20070:10 AM: Oh, no, it is already a new day. Let's read some hot stuff.Central bank is failing to act in halting currency rise, says OlarnPublished on July 31, 2007By Thanong KhanthongIf the Bank of Thailand had intervened in the foreign exchange market sufficiently, it would not only have gained profits but would also have succeeded in arresting the baht's rise, said Dr Olarn Cha....

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Monday , July 16 , 2007

Mini series on 1997 crisis (The End)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 1096 , 22:02:17

Abandoning the Peg On June 25 or 26, 1997, at the Bank of Thailand's Fish House overlooking the Chao Phya River, Rerngchai Marakanond, the Bank of Thailand governor, and Dr Chaiyawat Wibulswasdi, the deputy governor, briefed Dr Thanong Bidaya, the finance minister on the baht crisis.Thanong was informed about the net foreign exchange reserves and the huge swap obligations.Dr Thanong BidayaAfter liste....

Abandoning the Peg On June 25 or 26, 1997, at the Bank of Thailand's Fish House overlooking the Chao Phya River, Rerngchai Marakanond, the Bank of Thailand governor, and Dr Chaiyawat Wibulswasdi, the deputy governor, briefed Dr Thanong Bidaya, the finance minister on the baht crisis.Thanong was informed about the net foreign exchange reserves and the huge swap obligations.Dr Thanong BidayaAfter liste....

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Mini series on 1997 crisis (37)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 561 , 21:30:12

The Baht Peg Was DeadTHE financial markets believed that the currency peg system was already dead in the water. "The basket peg exchange rate policy has outlived its usefulness, we believe. The forces of globalisation, in particular large capital flows, are too hard to handle with the basket peg. Thailand needs a more flexible monetary policy. We see an adjustment of the currency, brought about ....

The Baht Peg Was DeadTHE financial markets believed that the currency peg system was already dead in the water. "The basket peg exchange rate policy has outlived its usefulness, we believe. The forces of globalisation, in particular large capital flows, are too hard to handle with the basket peg. Thailand needs a more flexible monetary policy. We see an adjustment of the currency, brought about ....

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Mini series on 1997 crisis (36)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 501 , 20:37:26

The Governor had The Last WordDr Amnuay Viravan, the finance minister, was willing to give the Bank of Thailand a benefit of the doubt. He held his reservation about the foreign exchange policy. As always, he would treat Rerngchai Marakanond, the governor of the Bank of Thailand, with respect. He would not overstep the turf."You have the last word,'' he told Rerngchai some time in June 1997. He ....

The Governor had The Last WordDr Amnuay Viravan, the finance minister, was willing to give the Bank of Thailand a benefit of the doubt. He held his reservation about the foreign exchange policy. As always, he would treat Rerngchai Marakanond, the governor of the Bank of Thailand, with respect. He would not overstep the turf."You have the last word,'' he told Rerngchai some time in June 1997. He ....

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Mini series on 1997 crisis (35)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 505 , 20:32:29

Ivory TowerOn April 30, 1997 Ivory Tower appeared out of no where to warn about the looming baht crisis. He was in fact the highly respected economist by the name of Dr Ammar Siamwalla, who headed the Thailand Development Research Institute.He wrote an article in the Bangkok Post that further fuelled the debate on currency devaluation, adding to the polarisation of opinion on the managemnt of the for....

Ivory TowerOn April 30, 1997 Ivory Tower appeared out of no where to warn about the looming baht crisis. He was in fact the highly respected economist by the name of Dr Ammar Siamwalla, who headed the Thailand Development Research Institute.He wrote an article in the Bangkok Post that further fuelled the debate on currency devaluation, adding to the polarisation of opinion on the managemnt of the for....

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Mini series on 1997 crisis (34)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 506 , 20:28:55

Winning the Battle, But Losing the WarIT was clear to Michel Camdessus, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, and his IMF staff that Thailand was about to lose the currency war.Michel CamdessusAfter the mid-May battle, the Bank of Thailand would not be able to fight another battle. By this time it was clearer than ever that the currency peg system would not hold. A more flexible r....

Winning the Battle, But Losing the WarIT was clear to Michel Camdessus, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, and his IMF staff that Thailand was about to lose the currency war.Michel CamdessusAfter the mid-May battle, the Bank of Thailand would not be able to fight another battle. By this time it was clearer than ever that the currency peg system would not hold. A more flexible r....

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Mini series on 1997 crisis (33)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 370 , 18:07:32

Take it or leave itPaiboon Kittisrikangwal, the chief foreign exchange dealer of the Bank of Thailand, did receive several phone calls from the speculators through the local banks asking for a cease-fire.The hedge funds were trying to scramble for the baht to get their hold on the baht. The separation of the onshore and offshore baht markets hurt them badly.But Phaiboon’s reaction was stern. He would....

Take it or leave itPaiboon Kittisrikangwal, the chief foreign exchange dealer of the Bank of Thailand, did receive several phone calls from the speculators through the local banks asking for a cease-fire.The hedge funds were trying to scramble for the baht to get their hold on the baht. The separation of the onshore and offshore baht markets hurt them badly.But Phaiboon’s reaction was stern. He would....

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Mini series on 1997 crisis (32)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 630 , 18:06:36

“They kicked Our Butts”Stanley Druckenmiller, chief investment officer for Soros Fund Management, came out to admit that his fund’s baht speculation backfired following the creation of the two-tier currency system."They kicked our butts and they've taken a lot of profit we might have had," he said with rather a good mood in June 1997. "They did a masterful job of squeezing us out."....

“They kicked Our Butts”Stanley Druckenmiller, chief investment officer for Soros Fund Management, came out to admit that his fund’s baht speculation backfired following the creation of the two-tier currency system."They kicked our butts and they've taken a lot of profit we might have had," he said with rather a good mood in June 1997. "They did a masterful job of squeezing us out."....

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Thursday , July 12 , 2007

Mini series on 1997 crisis (31)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 588 , 16:29:50

The Macroeconomic Complications While the Bank of Thailand had managed to inflict serious damage on the currency speculators, it realised that it would not win the currency war in the end.There were three critical questions facing Thailand at this point. First, what was the impact of the bank of Thailand’s decision to shut down the foreign exchange swap market.Second, should interest rates be cut to ....

The Macroeconomic Complications While the Bank of Thailand had managed to inflict serious damage on the currency speculators, it realised that it would not win the currency war in the end.There were three critical questions facing Thailand at this point. First, what was the impact of the bank of Thailand’s decision to shut down the foreign exchange swap market.Second, should interest rates be cut to ....

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Mini series on 1997 crisis (30)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 645 , 14:26:37

The Exchange Watchdog Came AlongShortly afterward, the Securities and Exchange Commission came aboard to help out the Bank of Thailand. It had been a big embarrassment to sit still and do nothing while the foreign speculators were railroading the stock market and taking the baht supply out of the country.On the evening of Monday June 8, 1997, the exchange regulators discussed their strategy on how to....

The Exchange Watchdog Came AlongShortly afterward, the Securities and Exchange Commission came aboard to help out the Bank of Thailand. It had been a big embarrassment to sit still and do nothing while the foreign speculators were railroading the stock market and taking the baht supply out of the country.On the evening of Monday June 8, 1997, the exchange regulators discussed their strategy on how to....

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Wednesday , July 11 , 2007

Mini series on 1997 crisis (29)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 635 , 14:03:36

The Cat-and-Mouse GameTHAILAND had been maintaining an open foreign exchange system, with a developed spot and forward foreign exchange market. It was easy for the speculators or traders to obtain baht credit from the local banks, which then was used to speculate against the baht.The speculators ambushed the stock market to funnel the baht out of Thailand.In the weeks that followed the mid-May 1997 b....

The Cat-and-Mouse GameTHAILAND had been maintaining an open foreign exchange system, with a developed spot and forward foreign exchange market. It was easy for the speculators or traders to obtain baht credit from the local banks, which then was used to speculate against the baht.The speculators ambushed the stock market to funnel the baht out of Thailand.In the weeks that followed the mid-May 1997 b....

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Mini series on 1997 crisis (28)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 527 , 14:00:58

A View From the GuruDr Olarn Chaipravat, the president of the Siam Commercial Bank, badly misread the currency battle. He got it wrong all the way.He emerged to declare that the Bank of Thailand won the battle in May 1997. Once Thailand's foremost macroeconomist, Olarn, an MIT graduate and a former Bank of Thailand official, had been expressing his public views against any attempt to devalue the baht....

A View From the GuruDr Olarn Chaipravat, the president of the Siam Commercial Bank, badly misread the currency battle. He got it wrong all the way.He emerged to declare that the Bank of Thailand won the battle in May 1997. Once Thailand's foremost macroeconomist, Olarn, an MIT graduate and a former Bank of Thailand official, had been expressing his public views against any attempt to devalue the baht....

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Mini series on 1997 crisis (27)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 609 , 14:00:27

The Foreigners Had Perfect ReadingThe Bank of Thailand's currency swap operation was no big secret. When Phaiboon Kittisrikangwal, the chief treasurer of the Bank of Thailand, was busily engaging in his currency swap activity with a foreign bank, the foreign dealer called his friend at the Bangkok Bank. The foreign banker asked whether his Thai friend knew what the Bank of Thailand was up to.The Bang....

The Foreigners Had Perfect ReadingThe Bank of Thailand's currency swap operation was no big secret. When Phaiboon Kittisrikangwal, the chief treasurer of the Bank of Thailand, was busily engaging in his currency swap activity with a foreign bank, the foreign dealer called his friend at the Bangkok Bank. The foreign banker asked whether his Thai friend knew what the Bank of Thailand was up to.The Bang....

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Mini series on 1997 crisis (26)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 599 , 14:00:04

Challenging Them on Their TurfsRERNGCHAI confessed that he was not a foreign exchange expert, and he did not appear to understand the implications of the currency swap. His aides told him that the swap contracts were a necessary tool for managing liquidity.Rerngchai along with his strategists had little understanding of the implications of the foreign exchange swap contracts they accumulated as a smo....

Challenging Them on Their TurfsRERNGCHAI confessed that he was not a foreign exchange expert, and he did not appear to understand the implications of the currency swap. His aides told him that the swap contracts were a necessary tool for managing liquidity.Rerngchai along with his strategists had little understanding of the implications of the foreign exchange swap contracts they accumulated as a smo....

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Mini series on 1997 crisis (25)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 443 , 13:59:40

Waging The Battle In Three FrontsWHY did the Bank of Thailand launch the baht battle in three fronts? In other words, why did it also open the battleground in the forward the market, instead of limiting the battle to the spot market?Even worse, the Bank of Thailand even went out to the offshore markets to defend the baht in the unknown territories. It was worse than Napoleon’s trying to conquer Russi....

Waging The Battle In Three FrontsWHY did the Bank of Thailand launch the baht battle in three fronts? In other words, why did it also open the battleground in the forward the market, instead of limiting the battle to the spot market?Even worse, the Bank of Thailand even went out to the offshore markets to defend the baht in the unknown territories. It was worse than Napoleon’s trying to conquer Russi....

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Mini series on 1997 crisis (24)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 402 , 13:57:56

A Confrontation in the Forward MarketTHE battle came to a sudden halt on after the Bank of Thailand played a hardball tactic by splitting the offshore and onshore foreign exchange markets.A tourist exchanges his foreign currency for the baht on July 2, 2007. The currency speculators could not have imagined that the Bank of Thailand would fight a mad battle, unleashing all of its ammunitions from the....

A Confrontation in the Forward MarketTHE battle came to a sudden halt on after the Bank of Thailand played a hardball tactic by splitting the offshore and onshore foreign exchange markets.A tourist exchanges his foreign currency for the baht on July 2, 2007. The currency speculators could not have imagined that the Bank of Thailand would fight a mad battle, unleashing all of its ammunitions from the....

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Tuesday , July 10 , 2007

Mini Series on 1997 crisis (23)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 862 , 13:48:46

Amnuay was shockedIt was not until the third week of May 1997 that Rerngchai Marakanond, the Bank of Thailand governor, gave an in-depth briefing to Dr Amnuay Viravan, the finance minister, about the financial system and the currency crisis.The twin problems had been haunting them throughout the first half of the year. The problems would continue to get worse.After Amnuay had learnt about the huge sw....

Amnuay was shockedIt was not until the third week of May 1997 that Rerngchai Marakanond, the Bank of Thailand governor, gave an in-depth briefing to Dr Amnuay Viravan, the finance minister, about the financial system and the currency crisis.The twin problems had been haunting them throughout the first half of the year. The problems would continue to get worse.After Amnuay had learnt about the huge sw....

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Mini series on 1997 crisis (22)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 866 , 13:46:30

The Licence To Make War On May 27, 1997 Rerngchai Marakanond, the Bank of Thailand governor, wrote on that same memo that Dr Amnuay Viravan, the finance minister, should be fully informed about all the matters since he chaired the Exchange Equalisation Fund and supervise the Bank of Thailand.So the Bandid Report, “The Foreign Exchange Market Intervention to Stabilise the Baht,” written on May 12, 199....

The Licence To Make War On May 27, 1997 Rerngchai Marakanond, the Bank of Thailand governor, wrote on that same memo that Dr Amnuay Viravan, the finance minister, should be fully informed about all the matters since he chaired the Exchange Equalisation Fund and supervise the Bank of Thailand.So the Bandid Report, “The Foreign Exchange Market Intervention to Stabilise the Baht,” written on May 12, 199....

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Monday , July 9 , 2007

Mini series on 1997 crisis (21)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 846 , 15:07:02

Polite opinions…and no actionIT is Thailand's bureaucratic practice to pass internal documents around in a hierarchical order. An official, after reading a piece of document, normally signs his name and the date as a record of his acknowledgement, which mostly but no necessarily accompanies with an opinion. The official would then pass on the document to his or her immediate boss. The document may en....

Polite opinions…and no actionIT is Thailand's bureaucratic practice to pass internal documents around in a hierarchical order. An official, after reading a piece of document, normally signs his name and the date as a record of his acknowledgement, which mostly but no necessarily accompanies with an opinion. The official would then pass on the document to his or her immediate boss. The document may en....

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Mini series on 1997 crisis (20)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 683 , 14:57:12

Going For BrokeON May 12th, 1997, right in the middle of the fierce currency battle, Dr Bandid Nijathaworn, the director of the Bank of Thailand’s Banking Department, completed his final touch on a highly confidential report that would represent an overall foreign exchange defence strategy of the central bank.Dr Siri Garnjaroendee, the assistant governor, was the one who ordered him to prepare the re....

Going For BrokeON May 12th, 1997, right in the middle of the fierce currency battle, Dr Bandid Nijathaworn, the director of the Bank of Thailand’s Banking Department, completed his final touch on a highly confidential report that would represent an overall foreign exchange defence strategy of the central bank.Dr Siri Garnjaroendee, the assistant governor, was the one who ordered him to prepare the re....

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Mini series on 1997 crisis (19)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 875 , 13:38:24

Other central bankers spoke outTHEN it was the turn of other speakers to exchange their views. On the pattern of speculative attack, Ms Yeo Lian Sim, director of International Department, Monetary Authority of Singapore, observed that commercial banks did give their own views on why there should be a currency devaluation and why the interest rate should come down.The views had brought about political....

Other central bankers spoke outTHEN it was the turn of other speakers to exchange their views. On the pattern of speculative attack, Ms Yeo Lian Sim, director of International Department, Monetary Authority of Singapore, observed that commercial banks did give their own views on why there should be a currency devaluation and why the interest rate should come down.The views had brought about political....

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Mini series on 1997 crisis (18)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 849 , 13:35:25

Working on the SqueezeTHE following day, on Friday, May 16, 1997 the Bank of Thailand tightened up additional capital controls to further squeeze the hedge funds and the currency speculators.Apart from barring the local banks from lending baht to the offshore banks, it restricted the local banks from conducting foreign exchange swap (baht for US dollar) with the offshore parties. It also prohibited t....

Working on the SqueezeTHE following day, on Friday, May 16, 1997 the Bank of Thailand tightened up additional capital controls to further squeeze the hedge funds and the currency speculators.Apart from barring the local banks from lending baht to the offshore banks, it restricted the local banks from conducting foreign exchange swap (baht for US dollar) with the offshore parties. It also prohibited t....

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Sunday , July 8 , 2007

Mini series on 1997 crisis (17)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 769 , 15:41:24

Time For a Sweet RevengeFOLLOWING the creation of the split offshore and onshore markets, Phaiboon Kittisrikanwal, the Bank of Thailand’s chief treasurer, had his sweet revenge. He quietly entered the market to squeeze the speculators, forcing them to reverse their positions by spitting out the dollar and buying the baht back to cover their positions.By the way, Phaiboon was the one who had the unlim....

Time For a Sweet RevengeFOLLOWING the creation of the split offshore and onshore markets, Phaiboon Kittisrikanwal, the Bank of Thailand’s chief treasurer, had his sweet revenge. He quietly entered the market to squeeze the speculators, forcing them to reverse their positions by spitting out the dollar and buying the baht back to cover their positions.By the way, Phaiboon was the one who had the unlim....

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Mini series on 1997 crisis (16)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 765 , 15:10:46

Playing HardballWHAT should a central bank do when its currency comes under an attack? Normally, there are three ways to respond. First, the central bank may intervene in the foreign exchange market to prop up its currency. Second, it may raise the interest rates sky-high to raise the cost of the attack. Third, it may restrict capital flows or impose capital controls.In the previous rounds of the bah....

Playing HardballWHAT should a central bank do when its currency comes under an attack? Normally, there are three ways to respond. First, the central bank may intervene in the foreign exchange market to prop up its currency. Second, it may raise the interest rates sky-high to raise the cost of the attack. Third, it may restrict capital flows or impose capital controls.In the previous rounds of the bah....

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Mini series on 1997 crisis (15)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 710 , 15:06:51

Licking the WoundsIn his office that morning of Thursday, May 15, 1997, Rerngchai summoned Dr Chaiyawat Wibulsawasdi, Siri Garnjaroendee, Thanya Sirivedhin, Bandid Nijathaworn, Praphai Suwannarat, who was Bandid's deputy, and Phaiboon for a crisis meeting.He would like to hear some immediate policy options.Bandid was extremely nervous and expressed fears about a possible collapse of the currency peg ....

Licking the WoundsIn his office that morning of Thursday, May 15, 1997, Rerngchai summoned Dr Chaiyawat Wibulsawasdi, Siri Garnjaroendee, Thanya Sirivedhin, Bandid Nijathaworn, Praphai Suwannarat, who was Bandid's deputy, and Phaiboon for a crisis meeting.He would like to hear some immediate policy options.Bandid was extremely nervous and expressed fears about a possible collapse of the currency peg ....

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Friday , July 6 , 2007

Mini series on 1997 crisis (14)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 901 , 18:08:40

The Currency Peg Was Ripped ApartBAHT selling pressure on Tuesday, May 13, 1997 escalated, sending the Thai currency off the fixed rate again that morning trading session.Rerngchai Marakanond, the Bank of Thailand governor, chaired a meeting that morning. It was agreed that the Banking Department should be authorised to continue to intervene in the foreign exchange market to shore up the baht.Before ....

The Currency Peg Was Ripped ApartBAHT selling pressure on Tuesday, May 13, 1997 escalated, sending the Thai currency off the fixed rate again that morning trading session.Rerngchai Marakanond, the Bank of Thailand governor, chaired a meeting that morning. It was agreed that the Banking Department should be authorised to continue to intervene in the foreign exchange market to shore up the baht.Before ....

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Mini series on 1997 crisis (13)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 735 , 17:54:03

Chavalit Promises To Hold the BatonON Sunday, May 11, 1997, there was a critical political development. Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, the prime minister, wanted to show off that he meant business.In the absence of Dr Amnuay Viravan, the finance minister, the prime minister held a hastily-arranged meeting with top officials from the Bank of Thailand, the Finance Ministry, the Budget Bureau, and the Natio....

Chavalit Promises To Hold the BatonON Sunday, May 11, 1997, there was a critical political development. Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, the prime minister, wanted to show off that he meant business.In the absence of Dr Amnuay Viravan, the finance minister, the prime minister held a hastily-arranged meeting with top officials from the Bank of Thailand, the Finance Ministry, the Budget Bureau, and the Natio....

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Mini series on 1997 crisis (12)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 734 , 16:52:44

The First Shot Was Fired in LondonDay one of the decisive battle was on Thursday, May 8, 1997. The hedge funds and international money managers waited for three months after the St Valentine attack to launch the new battle.Dr Surasak Nananukul, chief advisor of the prime minister who headed the economic advisory team at the Baan Phitsanulok, tipped reporters about his important morning meeting with t....

The First Shot Was Fired in LondonDay one of the decisive battle was on Thursday, May 8, 1997. The hedge funds and international money managers waited for three months after the St Valentine attack to launch the new battle.Dr Surasak Nananukul, chief advisor of the prime minister who headed the economic advisory team at the Baan Phitsanulok, tipped reporters about his important morning meeting with t....

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Thursday , July 5 , 2007

Mini series on 1997 crisis (11)

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 1049 , 19:28:24

The Six-Day BattleBETWEEN Thursday May 8 and Friday, May 15, 1997 – with May 10-11, 1997 off for the weekend -- the hedge funds and foreign speculators determined to slam Thailand's currency peg system into pieces. Lurking at every corner of the world's financial centres, they rolled out their arsenals and took aim at the baht."They intended to kill us on spot. We could not do anything, nor did ....

The Six-Day BattleBETWEEN Thursday May 8 and Friday, May 15, 1997 – with May 10-11, 1997 off for the weekend -- the hedge funds and foreign speculators determined to slam Thailand's currency peg system into pieces. Lurking at every corner of the world's financial centres, they rolled out their arsenals and took aim at the baht."They intended to kill us on spot. We could not do anything, nor did ....

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