The recall of the Thai ambassador and review of all bilateral agreements with Kampuchea as response to the Khmer interference in Thai affairs was the correct thing to do and quite in line with international practice. Nations recall their Ambassadors all the time as a first step in retaliation to what is seen as an attack on the country’s interests, or attack on a basic cherished institution, which is what the Cambodian government did when it loudly degraded the Thai justice system. Normally, such recall is a first step to further measures, subject to the other side’s response which should be forthcoming very soon.  The response will be a violent one, at least verbally, as is the Cambodian diplomatic style. Hun Sen who has been reared by war knows very well how to use violence and bluster for political gain, and a clash with Thais will strengthen his domestic political position vis a vis the opposition. He can only gain in the short run by boldly breaking diplomatic protocol in coming out to side with Thaksin, perhaps even financially. His style is reminiscent of Khrushchev, Hitler, and Sihanouk back in the 50s when he successfully infuriated both Thailand and Vietnam.

The big concern is the huge number of Cambodian illegal and registered migrant workers here. They can be a fifth column in times of tension and clashes. Border clashes and shelling are highly possible, including physical attacks on Thai interests in Cambodia. But Apsit’s choices are very limited, and to stand idly by and do nothing in the face of what is clearly a calculated provocation risks undermining his domestic political standing, as well as his stature abroad. But the whole saga is in a way a political windfall for the Democrats and a political disaster for Thaksin, if the Apisit team plays its cards correctly. I need not spell out how, and if the government doesn’t understand this window of opportunity, it better hand over the reins of government to someone else.

The Thais will probably remain cool and respond in a measured and escalated way, proportionate to what the Cambodians are going to do. The whole world is watching, and if Apisit makes a mistake --being too soft or being too harsh--then it will derail the economic recovery, which is progressing well by all indicators. The Cambodians are shrewdly aiming for such derailment and they’ll be using military means judiciously, as they have a lot of experience gained from their internal wars.

So Thais had better prepare well, accumulating ammunition and weapons.  I remember emphasizing in these blogs on the need to prepare well in advance while the people sleep, as no one is going to help us gratuitously when push comes to shove. The rule is when your opposite number puts military pressure on you, you’ve got to be able—that is, have the means-- to respond in kind. If not, it emboldens the other side and he pushes for more. And if you can’t cope, then this means the fall of the government, which is what Hun Sen and Thaksin are aiming for by their provocative moves. It is also the case that winter and the dry summer are ideal conditions for military action—and political as well. So we are looking at a high tempo of activity in the coming months but I am confident that Apisit and his team, with the military’s support, can handle it. Also, the international community could be on his side, provided he handles Kampuchea with good judgment and sense. Unreasonable military attacks on Cambodia will be seized by Hun Sen to churn out tear-jerking propaganda to make political capital in the international community. But proportionate military response is quite acceptable to all.

This is of course just my personal prognosis.