This is adapted from an earlier piece, now buried in the archives, with additions, update. Question is do you agree?

The Police chief issue could turn out to be a compromise, a third candidate. Or an acting chief could remain acting for a while, while talks are going on and Apisit softens up some parties. He either gets his way, but that creates another kind of problem, which may be more or less severe. Or, he compromises -- a tactic which is the Democrat Party’s (not Apisit’s) forte--and chooses a second best candidate that could be his eyes and ears and protect his back. On his return, Apisit’s position will harden, for certain reasons, so whatever choice he makes, it won’t be a police chief from the other side. The significance of the new police chief lies in not only in the progress or lack thereof of internal reform, but also political intelligence and subversion. So the stakes are high, more than at any time in police history. Any other problems which mortals cannot touch upon will be sorted out by deities. Looking at history, deities have intervened many times to shed light at the end of the tunnel, by working through humans.

October is a crucial month, and could be a turning point. But I don’t foresee a repeat of April violence. If  it happens, Thaksin stands to lose a lot because last April’s violence was seen to be conceived by him; indeed I understand a court summons or an arrest warrant has been issued for his role (correct me if I’m wrong). So he has an interest in preventing a repeat. Even is he stays clear of any October violence, shrieking that he had no role in it, few would believe him. And in any case it will be turned into prime capital by his opponents, just like the cancer affair. Peaceful tactics are more in line with the atonement process going on among the reds, while parliamentary action (to change the constitution, weaning the Pua Thai away etc.) can be ramped up with little risk.

And very unlikely that a coup will happen, because a cleverly staged de facto coup, fine-tuned for the globalization era, has already happened. And from now on, the government will be on a cold war path and resolve this Thaksin problem once and for all, meaning Thaksin if he wants to salvage himself might have to exit politics for a while and maybe become a monk. That’s an available strategy. Note politicians have chosen this route for obvious reasons. Whether it’s a sincere move is another matter. But politically, it’s equivalent to a truce. Thaksin cannot hope to win because he has angered certain supreme spiritual beings by his accumulated past conduct. Ask around for examples. To be able to win is an illusion, but cosmopolitans and materialists like him, shorn of mysticism, can’t understand this. Looking into a crystal ball, he doesn't have that much room for maneuver, given the quality of the company he keeps. And the balance of power is turning if ever so slightly against him. Even his fifth columnists in high places are being subject to a gentle witch hunt.  Monkhood is a traditional way out.  For his followers to engineer a Khomeni or MacArthur type of return or even a three Kingdoms type of strategy (as in old China) creates big and large scale problems of its own. Not worth it for anybody.