reallifethailand

A focus on Thai politics from a long term farang resident and luk keug's father
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Thursday , August 7 , 2008

Whats next in the Shin Trial saga?

Posted by redandwhitestripes , Reader : 1075 , 20:20:22

So imagine you are Thaksin Shiniwat right now. Your wife has been sentenced to jail, and you are facing a series of corruption charges, yet amazingly you have been allowed to leave the country and so has your wife!!! Hmmm.....things seem very convenient all round. The way I see it, these are the possible outcomes of the ongoing Shin trials: 1) Thaksin is cleared of all charges. Remarkably unlikely. This would be a massive loss of face for Sondhi - and therefore the military by association - and the junta designed AEC. There is also an extremely strong chance that some of the "unseen hands" as Thais call them, would be most unhappy. The PAD would take to the streets and would probably see an increase in support. Tensions would rise. 2) Thaksin is found guilty but just given a fine. A distinct possibility but would not seem to help any matters. The PAD and those against Thaksin would see it is a trade off and would feel Thaksin and his cronies would scheme for a comeback. Thaksin would be angry over his loss of cash and face and his supporters would still be wary of the PAD demonstrations. This outcome would be the political equivalent of a goalless draw. 3) Thaksin is sentenced to jail. Probably the most just decision but a risky one. It would require nerves of steel on behalf of the courts, the military and the unseen hands. The anger of the many Thaksin's supporters in the villages as well as in parliament would be raised further by the inevitable celebrations and gloating in Bangkok. The PPP and its associates would set themselves on a comeback for Thaksin and clashes would be inevitable. It would be a victory for transparency but at what cost? 4) Thaksin jumps bail and flees. How convenient for everyone. The elite (civilians and military) get shot of the man they hate. The PAD are shot of the one they dislike, the military save face, the judges can breathe again and nobody has to worry about mass security threats? What will happen to the seized cash? Perhaps it's best not to ask? So it seems that perhaps Potjaman Shiniwatra being allowed to leave Thailand whilst on bail from a three year jail sentence might not have been such a poorly considered move by the courts after all. Potjaman left Thailand today - ostensibly to go see the opening of the Beijing Olympics - with six large bags. What odds on her return?

So imagine you are Thaksin Shiniwat right now.

Your wife has been sentenced to jail, and you are facing a series of corruption charges, yet amazingly you have been allowed to leave the country and so has your wife!!!

Hmmm.....things seem very convenient all round.

The way I see it, these are the possible outcomes of the ongoing Shin trials:

1) Thaksin is cleared of all charges.

Remarkably unlikely. This would be a massive loss of face for Sondhi - and therefore the military by association - and the junta designed AEC. There is also an extremely strong chance that some of the "unseen hands" as Thais call them, would be most unhappy. The PAD would take to the streets and would probably see an increase in support. Tensions would rise.

2) Thaksin is found guilty but just given a fine.

A distinct possibility but would not seem to help any matters. The PAD and those against Thaksin would see it is a trade off and would feel Thaksin and his cronies would scheme for a comeback. Thaksin would be angry over his loss of cash and face and his supporters would still be wary of the PAD demonstrations. This outcome would be the political equivalent of a goalless draw.

3) Thaksin is sentenced to jail.

Probably the most just decision but a risky one. It would require nerves of steel on behalf of the courts, the military and the unseen hands. The anger of the many Thaksin's supporters in the villages as well as in parliament would be raised further by the inevitable celebrations and gloating in Bangkok. The PPP and its associates would set themselves on a comeback for Thaksin and clashes would be inevitable. It would be a victory for transparency but at what cost?

4) Thaksin jumps bail and flees.

How convenient for everyone. The elite (civilians and military) get shot of the man they hate. The PAD are shot of the one they dislike, the military save face, the judges can breathe again and nobody has to worry about mass security threats? What will happen to the seized cash? Perhaps it's best not to ask?

So it seems that perhaps Potjaman Shiniwatra being allowed to leave Thailand whilst on bail from a three year jail sentence might not have been such a poorly considered move by the courts after all. Potjaman left Thailand today - ostensibly to go see the opening of the Beijing Olympics - with six large bags.

What odds on her return?

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comment 13
massein date : 11/08/2008 time : 13.45
gif.jpg 25 K

Mr Thaksin would be hard pressed to prove need for political asylum, in a western democratic country. After all he has moved freely around the world in and out of Thailand since his return in Feburary. He also has full susport from his proxie political party.

comment 12
DKO date : 10/08/2008 time : 20.20
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/DKO

Well Ian and Felix you may well be right but I feel you are debating deeper facts which we all know 99.9% of the World are entirely ignorant of and are likely to remain so.

Most of the World's population see Thailand as One Country and therefore whatever each sub culture/race do within it will be seen as THAILAND to the World

Ian I think you are being a little kind to suggest different cultures cause the Law to be problematical because I feel it will be common on many things.

For instance: 3 people were found guilty and I suspect ALL sub cultures within Thailand believe convicted persons should not be allowed to leave Thailand until they have served their sentences OR won their appeals.

(I exclude, of course, those who think the Thaksins are so marvellous that they can do anything they want and should always get away with it)

I note The Nation is reporting that the Thaksins "missed" their scheduled flight home.

What a big surprise!!!!

The whole Thaksin saga over the last year or so seems like the worst kind of Soap comedy (or is it tragedy).

Well I'M laughing that Thailand should publically bother to gather evidence, argue, hold court cases and then when convictions are made, allow the convicted to leave the Country and CHOOSE whether to obey Thai law and come back or not.

Whether they do return in the end is irrelevant. Its the fact that Thailand is not in control of the situation any more. It WAS but handed it back to the convicted - INCREDIBLE.

comment 11
FelixQui date : 09/08/2008 time : 16.19
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/FelixQui

I'm inclined to think that Ian is right - any appearance of a sudden interest in respecting the rule of law a purely accidental result of its suiting the interests of one of the power groups jostling for power, property and prestige.

I don't think DKO should worry that Thailand's international reputation will sink if Taksin and some fair part of his spoils are allowed to esape justice. It will be written off as business as usual for Thailand as has been the case for these past few decades and under numerous constitutions, none of which have made more than a token pretence of protecting the rights of Thai citizens or of furthering either a just rule of law or a healthy democracy.

comment 10
Ian date : 09/08/2008 time : 16.04
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

DKO, you write, "What I fear is that Thai Law and Thailand will come further under ridicule".

I think the mistake is in saying "Thailand" as if it is a real country, like England, France or Germany.
It is quite clear that Thailand is actually three countries, each with its own culture and ethical codes. The apparent ridiculous state of Thai law is simply due to the fact it cannot accommodate these three disparate cultures.

comment 9
DKO date : 09/08/2008 time : 09.35
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/DKO

Today I am laughing at the newspaper reports from Thaksin allies.

Words to effect "of course they are coming back they have purchased return flight tickets to Thailand so that proves they are coming back"

PLEASE.........

What I fear is that Thai Law and Thailand will come further under ridicule IF any/all of the convicted 3 do a runner and Thailand chooses to accept ridiculous excuses and give them more time away from Thailand AND worse still if Thailand allows their Appeal proceedings to go ahead in their absence whilst the convicted parties are still overseas, on the run from Thai Law and enjoying life.

If such a thing was to happen it would be an outrage.

comment 8
Ian date : 08/08/2008 time : 15.13
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

The central pillar of Thaksin's enemies is both old and infirm, Thaksin is playing for time.

comment 7
DKO date : 08/08/2008 time : 09.23
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/DKO

If the convicted 3 flee to the UK (or many other countries) that will not save them in the medium or long term as Thailand can apply for their extradition.

Last time they started proceedings when Thaksin did not return to face charges. This time the case is stronger (not against him but the 3 convicted).

Of course whether Thailand will support its own Judicial system, judgement, guilty verdicts and Laws remains to be seen. Allowing convicted people to leave the Country does not bode well.

I suspect the 3 and other members of the family will flee (courtesy of Thaksins friends) and wait in the hopes their cronies (whoever they may be) will amass so much control in Thailand (be it sooner or later) and that Constitutions, laws will be changed (retrospectively if necessary), Friendlies promoted to key positions in Judiciary, Police, Military and Civil Service etc. and if all else fails they hope the Government will pardon them and allow them to return as heroes of the poor (HUH!).

Some of these is already being attempted.

I pray for Thailand, it's self respect and standing in the World (already tarnished by recent events) this does not happen for just one man and his family.

Those in Power need to start remembering AND VERY FAST that Thailand has around 65 million important people and the Thaksins are no better than any of them (only far richer). Thailand is NOT all about the Thaksins and their friends. The Thaksins, like any other Thais, are entitled to correct treatment and fairness under Thai law but they are entitled to NOTHING outside Thai Law (or the Law of other Countries they visit or choose to live in).

comment 6
Hermano_Lobo date : 07/08/2008 time : 23.43
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/yurivelasquez

The moment I read that Potjamon had been given 3 years yet was allowed bail and to visit China. I thought, jail or exile, she has the choice. With Thaksin they may need to use a little more inducement. 7-11 years jail, or exile.
It would seem to be the answer that ruffles least feathers ? Will Thaksin's assets still be frozen ?

comment 5
MamaSan date : 07/08/2008 time : 23.10
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/mamasan

Latest words from the street are that the Tigress has book tickets to fly from Beijing to London on Saturday this week. She was supposed to be scheduled to return to Bangkok on Monday next week. Her daughters left town today on their way to London. Is that a coincidence?

Those who have eyes can see, and those who have ears can listen. Those who have brains can also think. But apparently the justices of the Thai Supreme Court have none of these attributes!

Really Amazing, this country called "Thailand," where convicted criminals are allowed bail and can travel abroad at will using diplomatic passports! I just cannot see any sense in all these.

Mama San
Bangkok
August 07, 2008

comment 4
FelixQui date : 07/08/2008 time : 22.41
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/FelixQui

It would hardly be new for Thailand for those with power and influence to get away with murder, to the great convenience of those with power and influence.
I think #4 is more likely today than the other options, but with Taksin, you never know. I'm waiting to see how it all plays out.
I can think of at least two "surprise" events that would throw all the pieces back up into the air.

comment 3
MamaSan date : 07/08/2008 time : 21.40
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/mamasan

By the way, soon after Thaksin left town, his girlfriend the singer followed suit, apparently to rendevouz with him somewhere.

Rumors have it that Thaksin no longer lives with his wife and children at his mansion in Chan Song Lah (however it is spelled) but has been "living in" with the girlfriend (about the same age as one of his daughters) in the new Baht 40 million house that he "gifted" her. He apparently also "gifted" her parents another house worth at least as much. Can anyone confirm if these rumors are true or not, please?

Who says the super rich don't know how to enjoy themselves? Thaksin is probably looking at prolonging his life by staying closer to a younger female than is wife? He sure will need it if he is to fully enjoy his forthcoming stay at a maximum security prison in Yala, Pattani or Narathiwat.

Mama San
Bangkok
August 07, 2008

comment 2
MamaSan date : 07/08/2008 time : 21.30
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/mamasan

Slight correction needed on item # 4.

The Tigress, her brother and her secretary left town with 9 pieces of very big and heavy luggages each, ostensibly on a "short trip" to Beijing, with her three childen bidding her farewell at the airport crying.

Can someone please decipher the message being relayed by all these drama?

Of course, all the foolish analysts said they will not "escape" and will come back to fight to clear their names. Do you believe it?

I have not seen any courts in this world that is more foolish and stupid than Thai courts, even the "Supreme Court." Supremely stupid!

Mama San
Bangkok
August 07, 2008

comment 1
DKO date : 07/08/2008 time : 20.36
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/DKO

4) is my guess and I stated it same day trail verdict was announced on another Blog.

The sad thing is if I am correct then it seems SOME can get away with anything.

Whilst I agree it may be best for Thailand that they were given the chance to run by allowing them to leave the country I for one will NEVER agree with political decisions deliberately allowing convicted persons the opportunity to leave the country and try to avoid the Law of the Land.

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