Today, the big day at last. Will there be a bang ? Or just a whimper? All indications are it will all pass without trouble. The government has bombarded the airwaves with detailed information to the public about what exactly it’s going to do in various scenarios, and it has drawn in civil society and the press to be witness to whatever is going to happen, and judge both sides. The area is also covered in microscopic detail by cameras, so any throwers of bombs will be identified, and hopefully caught (the third hand). With this context, it would be political suicide for the red shirts to attempt more than a peaceful demo. It’s been reported that the red shirts are coming with only a few changes in clothing and supplies, pointing to a short stay.

So the only thing that could rapidly change the situation is a bomb exploded somewhere by a third hand or maybe even the first hand.

Coup and disturbance makers need to be dealt with harshly-- mercilessly some would say (by civil society; I can't speak for others). Why? because they are putting their interests first and are hugely damaging the prospects of national recovery. How? The PM is abroad trying to attract international confidence in the economy in order to progress the well being of Thai people as a whole. It is a mission that benefits everyone--including the red shirts I might add-- and the expectation is that what will follow is an inflow of tourism and capital after Apisit's discussions with the key international players, as they would be more confident. It has to do with credit ratings, first-hand assessments, confidence-building etc. It would be outrageous to have to be giving speeches and talks with a backdrop of fires, explosions, soldiers firing guns in the air etc. in Bangkok " as he speaks". If so, he might as well scrap the trip. Business will be redirected to Thailand’s competitors.

Legally and morally, the red shirts leaders have to take responsibility if anything happens, and can't simply blame it on the third hand; that would be too convenient. A proper leader has got to proudly say I take all the responsibility for bringing my flock here.

And why can't the demo be held after Apisit comes back or before he goes? It must have all been planned to coincide with his going abroad. So they themselves have created a situation of high risk, because if Apisit fails in this mission, and cut short his visit, the economic recovery will be set back—don’t forget he’s going to attend the G20 summit too, and all eyes will be on Thailand. If unrest happens, for whatever reason, the red shirts will lose a lot of supporters. They will be seen as merely a special purpose mob, rather than a vanguard of the revolution.