• Oranan
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Oranan
write general things, and opinions
Permalink : http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/oranan
Thursday , July 26 , 2007
BOT's losses : it doesn't matter
Posted by Oranan , Reader : 897 , 15:45:09  
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I quite wonder why news about the central bank's losses incurred from the baht intervention always made big headlines in some Thai language business newspapers. They wrote in the way to blame the Bank of Thailand for such loss and this point raises doubt whether those editors and reporters really have insight about economics.

Unlike firms, the central bank was founded as an independent government organization or simply says it is a non-profit making body and the country's financial stability is its main focus. The central bank's mission - to provide a stable financial environment in order to support sustainable economic growth - is also highlighted this fact.

The loss in the central bank's book is aimed at stabilizing the baht against the greenback through interventions. It is the old-fashion that we just keep eye on the central bank's loss as most of all central banks in the Asia region would experience the same result from the interventions but their losses might lower as many countries put their reserves for investment as a way to manage their reserves. I do believe the central bank would face stronger criticism from those newspapers if it were done nothing. Those who studied foundation of macroeconomics would aware that intervention is the central bank's tool to stabilize domestic currency and certainly such interventions come as cost regardless of foreign exchange regime adopted.

Now, it is time to put focus on how the central bank can use its hefty amount of foreign reserves to earn some gains to partly offset such losses. I think running such stories are creative news.

If I were the central banks' governor Tarisa Watanagase, I would not dare to do anything because any actions are criticized even general practice like intervention. What is my solution to handle with reporters who like criticism? Well, if I were Tarisa, I would have ask those reporters how you can step in the foreign exchange market without losses in the book while your country reserves are not in the level that adequate for investment. Later, I would have arranged a course of principle economics to educate them and, at the end, let them exam what they learn to score them how much they are qualified for critic.


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comment 13
detectiveMac date : 27/07/2007 time : 23.54
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/csi

couldn't agree more. i heard about this news early on Thursday morning on my way to the airport. I was frustrated about the news report.

Correct me if i'm wrong. Finance minister was the one who broke this information. My question is what was the point of saying so?

comment 12
Lala date : 27/07/2007 time : 13.32

yes, Ian I got it wrong. it's instability
thanks Lala
comment 11
Tawan date : 27/07/2007 time : 13.29
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/tawan3

Name me one Central Banker in the world that has the characteristics of being non-conservative and rash decision making this would send shock waves through out the markets and create an unstable enviroment what would be the result is the Central Banker would be fired.

The very definition of a Central Banker is conservative and transparent policies designed to stabilize and calm the markets. This is exactly what Khun Tarisa is doing.

comment 10
Tawan date : 27/07/2007 time : 13.12
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/tawan3

Khun Anterian it is supply and demand. When investors analize foreign exchange rates in terms of dollar based assets or pound based assets many factors are involved in the analysis of the intended country current accounts, exports, monetary policy, politics etc... The pounds assets return value of an investment in Malaysia or Hong Kong will be much different than the returns in Thailand. Thailand is considered as a higher return as seen by the influx of capital inflows so the demand for the baht is higher thus 60 in Malaysia it would be 70 less demand.
comment 9
Lala date : 27/07/2007 time : 12.57

Ian - Stability here means inflation targeting. Meaning, the price rise should be under control.. Lala
comment 8
Ian date : 27/07/2007 time : 00.26
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

One thing I do not understand, the dollar is going down against the Baht, but why is that dragging the British Pound down with it? In Malaysia and Hong Kong it is unchanged, in the Philippines it is marginally down, yet in Thailand it has gone from 70 to 60. Can anyone explain the logic of this?
comment 7
Jiwamol date : 26/07/2007 time : 23.29
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Jiwamol
XXX

I doubt it if the governor isn't Tarisa, whether the baht problem would be solved much effectively than today.
comment 6
Oranan date : 26/07/2007 time : 23.04
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Oranan

I totally agree with Comment 2. The weak point of the central bank's officials is they are not decisive and too cautious. However, I asked myself how can I do if I were the officials. I would do nothing better than the central bank does now because authority must take responsible if anything is wrong but critics does not take any responsibility if their suggestions do not work.
comment 5
Ian date : 26/07/2007 time : 21.38
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Lala, is this a mistake or intended, " the central bank's sancitified mission was to guard against stability"? Did you mean instability?
comment 4
PasaNINJA2499 date : 26/07/2007 time : 21.23
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/PasaNINJA2499
Keep walking forward. Don't give up. Don't fed up.

All I can do is praying for the Bank to overcome unstable baht.
comment 3
From-the-Dark-Side date : 26/07/2007 time : 19.21

Time to meet with a fortune teller....or is that Bank teller...yukyuk
comment 2
Lala date : 26/07/2007 time : 18.55

Dear Oranan, I absolutely agree with you. The loss justs appear in the book only. The loss is necessary as the central bank had to invervene to make the baht weaker. Some critics, who were part of the decision makers who created financial crisis in 1997, came out to criticise Tarisa some even called her to quit and I thought these people are shameless. These people didn't have the guts to stand up against the politics to prevent Thailand from financial crisis. Tarisa may be too cautious and conservative but the central bank's sancitified mission was to guard against stability. I believe she acts in good faith and I trust her more than these critics. Lala
comment 1
Pomjuk date : 26/07/2007 time : 17.16
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/pomjuk

yeah, a lot of voodoo economists out there, aren' there?
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