The rocky road to Bali

So who’s this smiling face on the rock mysteriously finding her way into my email recently? Serendipitous indeed, this warm, playful grin’s from Bali, which in December will play centre stage for the latest round of international climate change negotiations.

The Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in 2005, is set to expire in another five years, and the Bali summit will pave way for its replacement. But will there be smiles when it’s over, or more rock-hard intransigence as countries stand to protect their national interests.

Last week I got a taste of what’s likely in store when I attended Thailand’s first preparatory meeting for shaping its pre-Bali climate change platform. Some 50 climate change stakeholders were brought together by the Office of Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning (OEPP). Most were the usual suspects from NGOs, government, academia and the private sector whose views were to be moderated by Doctor Wanchai Wattanasak.

Known as "Mr Conflict Resolution", Wanchai has attempted to referee many social disputes such as the Pak Mool Dam, the Thai-Burmese gas pipeline and more recently the troubled South, so it was pretty clear that OEPP was not anticipating much unity. Dr Wanchai tried to set a constructive tone, asking participants to refrain from confrontational terms like "debate" and instead focus n the concept of "dialogue". Everybody seemed to be on board until some industry representatives brought us back to reality.

"As long as energy demand continue to grow every year, so too will our carbon emission. We have to build many more power plants in the next 20 years. So where should Thailand stand [in Bali]?", asked PTT’s Arwut Nithiphon, 

Then came Khun Vichuda Sthalanand, THAI’s manager for Corporate Environment Department, "Every company needs to strive for growth and we plan to have 10 more flights to Europe by 2012."

The fact that some of their compatriots abroad, such as Exxon or Virgin Airways, have at least begun to pay lip service to the need  for carbon reductions, in conjunction with, not at the expense of, growth appeared an unimaginable concept to these titans of industry within the Gulf of Thailand.

But not to social activist Chanida Chanyaphat, "Business as usual is impossible," she declares. "Under the threats from climate change, the world is talking about energy conservation rather than continuous quest for supply to feed the endless demand of energy. It’s not fair for companies to simply say ‘we want to grow’ but not asking ‘at whose expense’."

Not surprisingly, like Dr Wanchai's previous arbitration efforts, the discussion achieved no results. In conversations with participants afterward, no one held out much hope for any change during the next few meetings planned before the Thai delegation sets off for Bali. Of course Thailand is not alone. Many developed countries have already signaled they don’t intend to offer further commitments as regards to the Kyoto accord, and many G77 leaders remain unwilling to entertain any emission targets whatsoever, so we should not expect much from Bali.

It's not that there won't be smiles, however. They will just be emanating from the faces of those whose solid resistance to addressing the reality of climate change will ensure the Bali meeting becomes little more than a junket to experience the fabulous atmosphere offered by the Balinese and their beautiful island.