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Saturday , November 28 , 2009

Dubai: The Desert Oasis That Turns into A Mirage

Posted by Piset , Reader : 543 , 13:45:31

Self comforting comments from the bankers and politicians around the world have filled the media during the past few days: "No, it will not affect us very much!" I have never been to Dubai or UAE, just heard that it is like a Singapore for the Middle East, may be have been trying to get a little more aggressive than Singapore in attracting money from all over the world. The tallest building in the world? The world's only 7-stars hotel, the artificial island map of the world. . . . . . Now, come to think of it now, would you regret having put your money into it or would you regret have not joined in for a piece of those investment action? The question is: "Will Dubai and UAE get up and move forward again, just like before?" We have to admit that somewhere in that vicinity, trade activities around the world had been going on since the day of Sinbad. But will this glorious era return to Baddad or Abu Dabi again? I am just wondering out loud: Will this perceived Oasis become yet another heart breaking mirage in the dry desert?

Self comforting comments from the bankers and politicians around the world have filled the media during the past few days:

"No, it will not affect us very much!"

I have never been to Dubai or UAE, just heard that it is like a Singapore for the Middle East, may be have been trying to get a little more aggressive than Singapore in attracting money from all over the world. The tallest building in the world? The world's only 7-stars hotel, the artificial island map of the world. . . . . . Now, come to think of it now, would you regret having put your money into it or would you regret have not joined in for a piece of those investment action?

The question is: "Will Dubai and UAE get up and move forward again, just like before?"

We have to admit that somewhere in that vicinity, trade activities around the world had been going on since the day of Sinbad. But will this glorious era return to Baddad or Abu Dabi again?

I am just wondering out loud:

Will this perceived Oasis become yet another heart breaking mirage in the dry desert?

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comment 16
Piset date : 02/12/2009 time : 12.16
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/mahwatthai
Piset

Khun Netnapit:

Your concern about China's economic bubble busting is real and very serious. However, i don't think the Chinese government will repeat the wrong move it took 60 years ago to shut itself in because, they have learned from those wrong moves and could see no gains to doing it again.

Rather than Beijing or Shanghai, the next "default" might come from D.C. That will bring much worse result than any Chinese economic bubbles.

As Dalmasian's posting shows, the US government will have to come up with 3.5 billion dollars to cover its maturing debts and spending deficits, not to count the additional spending caused by sending 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan.

The economies that would suffered the most are those that would have to rely on international trades for their employments, income, energy, food and living necessities.

comment 15
netnapit date : 01/12/2009 time : 04.03
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/netnapit

Here's an interesting article written about Dubai, Nov. 16, "Escape to Dubai": http://nymag.com/news/features/52180/index2.html

comment 14
netnapit date : 01/12/2009 time : 01.15
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/netnapit

Alien's comment 2, is an interesting insight.

Wch, comment 3, is not true. I think the population of 3million needs the market of 60+million more than the other way around.

I do think possible bubble bursts in China is a thing more to be feared for than anywhere else. Cushions are there for the time being, but as the Chinese economies grows, even the cushion of its government grips on affairs will run out of feathers. What is fearful is not for the Chineses, but for the rest of the world whose countries put money there, because if worse comes to worse, all China needs to do is to close its doors again, clean up its mess from the inside, at a great cost to its people, but more of the rest of the world.

comment 13
peacefulness date : 29/11/2009 time : 11.43
nationmultimedia.com

latest as reported by lcl tv stns

abu dhabi will help case by case basis

how when where why UNKNOW....wait and see

comment 12
Piset date : 28/11/2009 time : 22.09
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/mahwatthai
Piset

Just had dinner with a friend Thursday night. This Chinese friend is booming bounces and leaps as a domestic wholesaler, distributors of fashion apparels. In his word, thus far, there has been no impact from the world crisis on his business at all. He came to Shanghai from Nanjing two months ago to set up a new company in Shanghai!!!

In my executive training business, I also notice the sudden appearance of more an dmore attendees from local firms as compare to the previous proportion of 10%:90% between local firms and foreign firms among my clients.

comment 11
Ian date : 28/11/2009 time : 22.05
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Dubai is one of the few Arab states which is poor in oil. Indeed recently it was bailed out of trouble by a ten billion loan (gift?) from Abu Dhabi. As Alien says, they have been trying for a long time to diversify planning for when the oil runs out. They have major investments in the UK docks and the stock exchange. I await Monday to see how this will affect the Pound and hence the British economy. I suspect the other Emirates will prop it up.

comment 10
Piset date : 28/11/2009 time : 22.05
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/mahwatthai
Piset

What I said means economic bubbles in China could burst just like any other countries in the world. However, China is still fortunate that the government has not permit very much deriverative investment tool trading. That means the magnitude of its problems should be much more controllable than New York, Dubai or Singapore.

comment 9
Piset date : 28/11/2009 time : 22.02
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/mahwatthai
Piset

HI folks:

Yes, China's property price has been my very grave concerns during the past 5 years. I have warned people everywhere I go about the bubbles in the property and stock market. I supposed it might not be easy to avoid the natural cycle of China itself of "long prosperity would be followed by grave declines and vice versa."

The local banks have been very strict about housing loan during the last quarter this year after some apparent relaxing of the housing credit control to help prop up the real estate sector.

Rayong, and Thai Eastern Seaboard Development Farce should be a big warnaing to all those people trying to grab a little more from property price manipulation. For Eastern Seaboard of Thailand it only took 2 years before the property prices chased away all the intended and approved investment projects there.

One difference between China dnd Dubai, Russia or India still remain the great majority of the people's habit of shoving money under their beds and the land reform that would serve as the cushion for the living of most of China's population. Worst comes to worse, they still got food in the field and cash under their bed. This does not happen in Dubai, Bombay or Los Angeles.

comment 8
panya date : 28/11/2009 time : 21.49
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/diversion

There's a great gallery of 16 pictures of the wonder that is/was Dubai, here at http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/gallery/2009/nov/27/property-economics.

Quite spectacular. But most of the construction work has stopped and the place looks like a giant building exhibition, I hear from friends over there.

comment 7
massein date : 28/11/2009 time : 20.18
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/massein

Meant to say American Chopper

comment 6
massein date : 28/11/2009 time : 20.17
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/massein

Don't say that to loud, Piset will get upset.Interesting note
this week the season show for American was about paul senior going to abu dabi to set up a occ chopper shop there, they have mention several times in the show that business was real bad this year, I think it just got worest

comment 5
Hermano_Lobo date : 28/11/2009 time : 19.40
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/yurivelasquez

My contacts in China are saying that the PRC could be the next bubble to burst. Implosion is a possibility.

Who would have thought that Dubai would get into trouble ?

comment 4
massein date : 28/11/2009 time : 15.39
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/massein

Las Vegas is there because of legal gamblin, without it Las Vegas would dry up and blow away
Dubai is there because business men need a a place that is comfortable to run business out of, if the oil is no longer needed or use up Dubai will dry up and go away, One industry cities or i a very precarious situation. Let face 90 % of the citizens of the emmerates low income living marginal existences, 10% have all the money, humn , remind me of a few other asian countries. I may be off by a few precentages points, I sure Piset has the correct figures

comment 3
wch date : 28/11/2009 time : 14.29
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/wch

Arabs need Dubai as if Thais need Singapore. Alien hit the nail.

comment 2
Alien date : 28/11/2009 time : 13.56
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/alien

Maybe in a few years, when the economy picks up, Dubai will bloom again. The arabs still want their own financial center. They hate using N. Y. or London or wherever.

comment 1
massein date : 28/11/2009 time : 13.55
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/massein

Don't count them out yet, still lots of oil in that sand

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