Constructive Thoughts for the Day

Constructive Thoughts for the Day
Permalink : http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/kriengsak

Thursday , July 24 , 2008

Bangkok: A Doughnut City

Posted by Kriengsak , Reader : 3533 , 12:16:47 | Category : Economy

Picture from - http://www.worldslargestthings.com/easterntour/donutSubheader2.jpg From his new home on Srinakarin Road bought five years ago, Somsak must drive his daughter to university in Samyan on a daily basis. He then continues to drive to his office on Soi Asoke. The oil price rise made it difficult for him to decide to sell his childhood home. He sometimes grieves that over the previous decade Bangkok has not had the same feel about it that it once had in the past. The city’s appearance has changed, so that Bangkok today is totally different to what it was fifty years ago. The question is, what will Bangkok be like in the future? For example, what will Bangkok be like in the year 2020, or in the next twelve years, and how should we prepare to confront changes that are ominous? I expect there to be at least two factors that will affect changes in Bangkok in the next twelve years. The first is the possibility that the Klongtoei Port will be moved and combined with Lamechabang Port, as per an agreement that one million twenty-foot containers per year (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit: TEU) be the maximum quantity of containers that is allowed to arrive at the Klongtoei Port. This implies that, compared to Lamechabang Port, the Klongtoei Port will atrophy gradually. It will be combined with Lamechabang Port eventually. Another factor is foreign captial transfer. The World Future Society has predicted that the number of millionaires around the world will exceed one billion within 2025. This information reflects a future cornucopia of capital in the world. Capital will be moved anywhere in the world where high returns are yielded. Since Bangkok is an attractive city, we may confront tsunami-like foreign investment waves. Two factors that I have mentioned above can change the picture of Bangkok. Areas with well-established infrastructure will be chosen specifically by foreign investors in order to support their businesses. With the increasing demand of multinational companies and foreigners, this will also result in project developers striving for office building space and central city condominiums. Consequently, not only will office building and condominium crowding occur in the central area of the city, but an increase in land price will also occur, that will crowd some residents out to the outskirts of the city. Even though many condominiums seem to be located in the central area at this present time, these condominiums cannot completely house their residents. This is because only a small number of huge condominiums are able to house more than one thousand people. Moreover, these kinds of condominiums are normally sold at a high price to foreigners. Thus, only a few local people who earn high salaries can live in central city condominiums. According to my close inspection of Bangkok’s population from 1998 to 2006, the information corroborates this story. Even though the inner area of Bangkok seems crowded, the number of people living there has actually decreased. In addition, the number of residents in the old city business area had decreased by an estimated 22.5 percent over a period of less than ten years. And the number of residents in the commercial area had decreased 7.6 percent. By contrast, the number of residents in the outer area of Bangkok had increased rapidly. The number of residents in high-density residential areas and suburbs had increased about 12.2 and 39.6 percent respectively. The pattern of such change as that affects the ratio of the number of residents living in inner city areas compared to those in outer areas. According to information sources, in 1998 the majority of Bangkok dwellers lived in the inner area of Bangkok, whereas at this present more than half of all Bangkokians reside in outer areas. I predict that in 2020, nearly two-thirds of Bangkok’s population will live mainly in the outer area of the city. Besides, due to the end of the Klongtoei Port, the city will expand to the east, even though it has been expanded quite a lot to this day. The western area of Bangkok will also be expanded, but the expansion rate may be slower than for the east of Bangkok. If we integrate these conjectures into a coherent scenario, we may see that a filled doughnut of distorted shape would be a suitable metaphor for Bangkok in 2020; with the strawberry jam filling as the crowed commercial area; the distorted dough as the residential area holding out- crowded residents who are likely to move to Bangkok’s eastern area; and the icing as the sparse agricultural area on the outskirts of Bangkok city. If there is no plan to correct it from now until 2020, Bangkok city traffic will be in crisis. Though the population may move out from the central area of the city, people will still work in the city and thus need to commute downtown. Roads that connect the outer and inner areas of the city would therefore be more crowded. West Bangkok will accommodate more and more residents, but permission to erect high-rise buildings will not be granted. Consequently, a legion of people will inevitably cross the Chaophraya River to work downtown, causing agonizing traffic problems on the bridges connecting both sides of the Chaophraya River. To compound the traffic trouble, skytrain and subway routes will be built continuously from now on. Due to an increase in the number of people who will stay in Bangkok’s outer areas and the sky-high price of oil, the government will be urged to grant route extensions for the subway or skytrain. For this reason, I surmise that there will be Phases 3 and 4 in skytrain construction after the Phase 2 project is completed, according to plan, in 2012. Thus, in order to contend with the menacing traffic problem, it is necessary for Bangkok to plan to solve this problem from the macro perspective level. Bangkok’s leader will also need to discern the changing trends of the city as a whole and then plan the traffic system systematically. I would suggest at least three ways to cope with the problem, that might happen as follows: - Firstly, in order to convey the majority of Bangkokians who live in the city’s suburbs to the central area, subway routes should likewise be extended to connect every area on the outskirts of Bangkok inwards. Subways can reduce road congestion on roads connected to downtown areas, and also on bridges that connect both sides of the Chaophraya River. However, it is important to take into account the traffic problem during the period of construction. Secondly, the current bus ticket system should be replaced by a city link card to include every kind of public transportation, such as buses, BTS, MRT, trains, and boats. A city link card would provide convenience for commuters and would also help to save their transportation costs. Furthermore, this might be an incentive for Bangkok people to use the public transport system, rather than their own cars. Lastly, an MBTA bus schedule tracking and tracing system should be developed for people to be able to check such information in advance before leaving home. Since people who live on the outskirts of Bangkok will spend more time in commuting, they will need to manage their time efficiently. Thus, every bus should be equipped with a GPS device so that commuters can track and trace bus arrivals at their nearest bus stop via an Internet or SMS system. The high flight of an eagle enables it to see the whole landscape clearly, and therefore pounce on its prey accurately. Likewise, for the administration of Bangkok City, its leader must take a visionary macro perspective in order to discern the future problems and be able to contend with them in time.

Picture from - http://www.worldslargestthings.com/easterntour/donutSubheader2.jpg

From his new home on Srinakarin Road bought five years ago, Somsak must drive his daughter to university in Samyan on a daily basis. He then continues to drive to his office on Soi Asoke. The oil price rise made it difficult for him to decide to sell his childhood home. He sometimes grieves that over the previous decade Bangkok has not had the same feel about it that it once had in the past.

The city’s appearance has changed, so that Bangkok today is totally different to what it was fifty years ago. The question is, what will Bangkok be like in the future? For example, what will Bangkok be like in the year 2020, or in the next twelve years, and how should we prepare to confront changes that are ominous?

I expect there to be at least two factors that will affect changes in Bangkok in the next twelve years. The first is the possibility that the Klongtoei Port will be moved and combined with Lamechabang Port, as per an agreement that one million twenty-foot containers per year (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit: TEU) be the maximum quantity of containers that is allowed to arrive at the Klongtoei Port. This implies that, compared to Lamechabang Port, the Klongtoei Port will atrophy gradually. It will be combined with Lamechabang Port eventually.

Another factor is foreign captial transfer. The World Future Society has predicted that the number of millionaires around the world will exceed one billion within 2025. This information reflects a future cornucopia of capital in the world. Capital will be moved anywhere in the world where high returns are yielded. Since Bangkok is an attractive city, we may confront tsunami-like foreign investment waves.

Two factors that I have mentioned above can change the picture of Bangkok. Areas with well-established infrastructure will be chosen specifically by foreign investors in order to support their businesses. With the increasing demand of multinational companies and foreigners, this will also result in project developers striving for office building space and central city condominiums. Consequently, not only will office building and condominium crowding occur in the central area of the city, but an increase in land price will also occur, that will crowd some residents out to the outskirts of the city.

Even though many condominiums seem to be located in the central area at this present time, these condominiums cannot completely house their residents. This is because only a small number of huge condominiums are able to house more than one thousand people. Moreover, these kinds of condominiums are normally sold at a high price to foreigners. Thus, only a few local people who earn high salaries can live in central city condominiums.

According to my close inspection of Bangkok’s population from 1998 to 2006, the information corroborates this story. Even though the inner area of Bangkok seems crowded, the number of people living there has actually decreased. In addition, the number of residents in the old city business area had decreased by an estimated 22.5 percent over a period of less than ten years. And the number of residents in the commercial area had decreased 7.6 percent. By contrast, the number of residents in the outer area of Bangkok had increased rapidly. The number of residents in high-density residential areas and suburbs had increased about 12.2 and 39.6 percent respectively.

The pattern of such change as that affects the ratio of the number of residents living in inner city areas compared to those in outer areas. According to information sources, in 1998 the majority of Bangkok dwellers lived in the inner area of Bangkok, whereas at this present more than half of all Bangkokians reside in outer areas. I predict that in 2020, nearly two-thirds of Bangkok’s population will live mainly in the outer area of the city.

Besides, due to the end of the Klongtoei Port, the city will expand to the east, even though it has been expanded quite a lot to this day. The western area of Bangkok will also be expanded, but the expansion rate may be slower than for the east of Bangkok.

If we integrate these conjectures into a coherent scenario, we may see that a filled doughnut of distorted shape would be a suitable metaphor for Bangkok in 2020; with the strawberry jam filling as the crowed commercial area; the distorted dough as the residential area holding out- crowded residents who are likely to move to Bangkok’s eastern area; and the icing as the sparse agricultural area on the outskirts of Bangkok city.

If there is no plan to correct it from now until 2020, Bangkok city traffic will be in crisis. Though the population may move out from the central area of the city, people will still work in the city and thus need to commute downtown. Roads that connect the outer and inner areas of the city would therefore be more crowded. West Bangkok will accommodate more and more residents, but permission to erect high-rise buildings will not be granted. Consequently, a legion of people will inevitably cross the Chaophraya River to work downtown, causing agonizing traffic problems on the bridges connecting both sides of the Chaophraya River.

To compound the traffic trouble, skytrain and subway routes will be built continuously from now on. Due to an increase in the number of people who will stay in Bangkok’s outer areas and the sky-high price of oil, the government will be urged to grant route extensions for the subway or skytrain. For this reason, I surmise that there will be Phases 3 and 4 in skytrain construction after the Phase 2 project is completed, according to plan, in 2012.

Thus, in order to contend with the menacing traffic problem, it is necessary for Bangkok to plan to solve this problem from the macro perspective level. Bangkok’s leader will also need to discern the changing trends of the city as a whole and then plan the traffic system systematically. I would suggest at least three ways to cope with the problem, that might happen as follows: -

Firstly, in order to convey the majority of Bangkokians who live in the city’s suburbs to the central area, subway routes should likewise be extended to connect every area on the outskirts of Bangkok inwards. Subways can reduce road congestion on roads connected to downtown areas, and also on bridges that connect both sides of the Chaophraya River. However, it is important to take into account the traffic problem during the period of construction.

Secondly, the current bus ticket system should be replaced by a city link card to include every kind of public transportation, such as buses, BTS, MRT, trains, and boats. A city link card would provide convenience for commuters and would also help to save their transportation costs. Furthermore, this might be an incentive for Bangkok people to use the public transport system, rather than their own cars.

Lastly, an MBTA bus schedule tracking and tracing system should be developed for people to be able to check such information in advance before leaving home. Since people who live on the outskirts of Bangkok will spend more time in commuting, they will need to manage their time efficiently. Thus, every bus should be equipped with a GPS device so that commuters can track and trace bus arrivals at their nearest bus stop via an Internet or SMS system.

The high flight of an eagle enables it to see the whole landscape clearly, and therefore pounce on its prey accurately. Likewise, for the administration of Bangkok City, its leader must take a visionary macro perspective in order to discern the future problems and be able to contend with them in time.

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comment 11
Kriengsak date : 11/08/2008 time : 10.53
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/kriengsak

To wch
Thanks for your urban beautification proposal.

To Ian
Thanks for your comments. I agree that fiscal austerity is the fundamental problem in human society. It may explain why economic policies are spotlighted.

To papayainThailand
Thanks for your valuable, thought-provoking arguments. I have several explanations to your points in question, as follows:

1.I agree with you that there will be more and more hi-class condominiums in Bangkok's central areas. However, I'm not sure that the capacity of these condos can counterbalance an outflow of the old residents. Moreover, many of these condos focus on high income foreigners. Will there be a vacancy for average Bangkokians?

2.I think that there are two possible scenarios for Bangkok's residential areas in the future.

1) The housing or rental prices in the central area will be so high that Bangkokians cannot live in the centre of the city (unless they are trespasser)
2) The sky-high oil price forces Bangkokians to live in high-populated areas.

After consideration, I feel that the first scenario is more likely than the second. People may suffer from high commuter costs, but otherwise it would be impossible to live in such exorbitantly priced residences. To reconcile these two scenarios, I expect that those who are "driven out" from the central areas would urge the government to cut the prices of BTS/MRT transportation, which is likely to be a populist trend.

comment 10
wch date : 30/07/2008 time : 10.54

Long 'town house' must be remodelled into block high rise. New construction can be recommended by city policy.
The building act must be reviewed. 45 degree, 30 degree rules now produce urgly buildings. They must use the policy of Volume/area ratio, that secure more space on ground. This policy now proves to provide beautfiful plaza culture in other countries. 2 meter step-back policy is also useful for any new buildings. This space from road rim and building foundation allows urban beautification by plant or sculpture.

Untility undersground must be expedited. Model Soi policy is good. I have seen Soi 24 of Sukhumvit would be a sample project. Upon completed, the soi will be the best modern soi. Most of new buildings voluntarily provides spaciaous 2-5 meters rim-road clearance and many of small houses demolish concrete wall to low stainless guide rail with green plants. This proves Bangkok people will join if good governance is.

Bangkok need 30 years long term reconstruction program that brews new urban culture.

comment 9
papayainThailand date : 30/07/2008 time : 09.09
www.papayainthailand.blogspot.com

I would have thought that with the trend of skyrocketing gas prices, there would be a tendency to reconcentrate as shown in the experience of "gentrification” in western countries rather than further donut type deconcentration. There is a strong argument in support of this scenario given that most of the service HQ functions of multinationals (and thus, service jobs) are still concentrated in inner Bangkok.

This type of gentrification scenario would not necessarily follow the same dynamics as the western model of gentrification wherein Thai yuppies and the rich would repopulate old shophouses. The simple reason being that it is impossible to redeem aesthetically your typical shophouse design (from the 50s onward) of 5 meters width by 3 stories and a super-minimalist facade. It is also difficult to guarantee structural integrity during remodeling (i.e., without complete rebuilding) given that a shophouse exists in relation to a centipede-like-row of at least 4 to 5 units.

Most likely, the gentrification of Bangkok will take the form of some kind of "urban renewal" where the private sector will raze these blocks of ugly shophouses and construct in their place massive condo highrises. (see for example the Malakul property in the Rajatevee intersection in Phayathai). If Klong Toei port will be finally transferred to Laem Chabang, imagine the land development opportunities for developers if the government sells development rights openly in the market. I should raise the caveat though that in this scenario of inner city gentrification, it will most likely tend to socially exclusiveness as housing prices will not be within reach of the lower classes. This raises implications for spatial disparities where the inner city will be reclaimed by the rich.

I am also questioning the blind confidence placed on expanded BTS/subway “mass” transit routes because of high costs to improve inter-city flows of people from bedroom communities to work places in the center. The skytrain and subway clientele is still limited to the middle class (“midso”) and the “hiso”. No "loso" (low society) can afford the skytrain/subway (unless hard data contradicts me) or at least very few. Thus, in the expanded “mass” transit system of the BTS/subway, we cannot place too much hope this can facilitate commuting from the farther reaches of the expanded system unless fares are subsidized (or in the likely or unlikely event that Thailand will attain developed country status 20 years from now when the expanded BTS/subway routes will be completed(??!). Is it realistic to expect the "loso" who may be able to afford "cheap" affordable housing in the outskirts to commute to the city say at 60 baht a pop?

On the other hand, the tendency alluded by Kriengsak of a donut shaped deconcentrated structure (“particularly in the eastern area” - because of Suvannabhumi airport?) will only work if there is also a corresponding deconcentration of jobs from the city "core". However, this prospect will materialize if and only if there is serious planning implemented: e.g., the planned new airport aerotroplis, and reviving (and seriously implementing) the multi-nodal plan of BMA where employment as well as housing will be decentralized in tandem as contiguous zones. Planning institutions will have to be rapidly created, strengthened, funded and endowed with highly capable and professional Thai planners to implement these massive schemes. I am not too optimistic that this historically unprecedented massive societal project can happen.

comment 8
Ian date : 29/07/2008 time : 18.06
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

I feel wch is optimistic over the financing his ideas, many nations, including my own are faced with tidal and esturine erosion. The eastern coast of England is rapidly eroding in places, and shingle drift is universal along the south coast, we have abandonned attempts to prevent this, man cannot fight a determined Nature.
Present Bangkok is doomed, all you can do is delay the inevitable, the same can be said of many major cities in the world.
Bangkok as an entity should start to move inland in a co-ordinated and orchestrated manner such as to cause the last impact on its commerce and infrastructure.

comment 7
wch date : 29/07/2008 time : 12.00

Kom Chad Leuk reported yesterday, Ban Koon Tien shore erosion is 3 meter a year and the next 12 years will reach 300 meters.
This is a compu simulation by an university.

The water current is closkwise always and the silt-arresting wier and caisson block are effective.
Long inducing water breaks at west side in the mouth of Chaoparya is important, to detour the harsh shore licking current and speed up the outflow of the river.

Whole system of such water break, causeway of erosion preventive concrete wall can become a good tourist spot, like Miami key way.
In-wall seaway is good marine tourism courses like the famous SEAWAY nearby New Orleans and the southern part of USA.

To a new parliament site and the river-front grand plaza in Klong Toey zone, all Shell Caltex, Esso, PTT oil depot must be moved away, Bangchak oil refinery is the serious pollution point in Bangkok sky air. This must be moved away.
This marine plaza will be the point where citizens meet the river and further go out to the sea.

A highest building along the parliament complex will be a symbol of Thailand.

Urban metro plan must be handed over to the jurisdiction of BMA governor and BMA will run an independent agency - Metro Bangkok Authority.
BMA and the authority raise fund, inviting foreign investors. The government must remain policy maker and coordinator with metropolitan provinces.

One successful in the capital city management, will be the future prime minister. Proven administrator is eligible to bigger seat. This must become a tradition to Thailand.
Unproven, corrupted people makes a premier and now see it !.

comment 6
Kriengsak date : 28/07/2008 time : 16.32
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/kriengsak

Thank you for all good information and very good ideas. Please write it again.

comment 5
wch date : 27/07/2008 time : 10.54

Bangkok has a river and a sea but Bangkok people can not enjoy either of them, so there is no such culture.

River and Sea are occuped by a handful people or used in wrong way.

A capital must be re-designed as STAR, not doughnut.
At a star, at each of horn must have a satellite city. The distance is 50 - 100km.
Bangkok must be linked by high speed train with Saraburi, Singburi, Supanburi, Rachburi and by seaway to Hua Hin and Rayong.
Kloeng Toey port must be transformed as Metro ocean terminals to serve Gulf logistics as if it is to Okohama and Inchon.

Bangkok must be GRAJAI like star, not curl'led in like doughnut. All planned metro must be stretched out long distance.

In the google map, the mistakes are apparent on the location of Suwannaphum and the location of Chonburi motorway.
Bangkok east canals designed by the HM must connect with Bangpakong river. Also the area from airport to the river is apparently future zone for expansion but, now it is blocked by the airport.

In the west seashore of Chaopraya, the erosion is visable now. Large water break bank is urgently needed to stop the erosion. Concrete caisson can make it and Bangkok can acquire large farming land in it. The soil is very fertile and rice can be cultivated for 10-20 years, then transfer the land as urban facilities such as boat terminal, waste water treatment plant, sport facilities and more importantly breach front dwelling belt.

Business center, the banking system must be liberalized. Unless the BOT and Government dictatorship be lifted, it is hopeless.

New parliament site can be on the clear Klong toey port land where a large, breatheable plaza is built for citizen's space where demonstration can be accommodated.
Ratanakosin area must be left and preserved as heritiage site.

6000 NGV city commuter bus must be reviewed.
It pollutes more the city.
Cheap natural gas benefit is not to citizens but the rent giving firm and relevant politicians and officials.
That will become endless money milling loophole in the future.

comment 4
wch date : 25/07/2008 time : 11.05

Hello, Author,

This map may give you a second thought.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f6/Bangkok_satellite_city-area.jpg

comment 3
Pomjuk date : 24/07/2008 time : 17.57
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/pomjuk

None of that will have to happen if businesses in Bangkok allow their employees to telecommute. For that to happen Bangkok has to have reliable broadband Internet connection with competitive prices.

Thai managers have to get rid of the mentality of controlling their subordinates’ every move. Rather manager should set up objective for the year and review the progresses weekly and provide each subordinates with feedback quarterly. Then the managers will be able to allow the subordinates to manage their own time.

I know that will be hard in the working environment where no one goes home before the boss does, ever when they have nothing to do.

comment 2
Ian date : 24/07/2008 time : 17.18
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

This doughnut shape is inevitable in major cities, London in fact has got several population holes so is not a true doughnut.
The inner City of London is an extreme example with a registered resident population of about 1000 and a daytime population of 80,000.
Fortunately for London we have an extensive underground railway system which extends well into the surrounding countryside and which is still being added to.
High rise accommodation has never been popular in England and Europe, it has been tried but was a failure, it seems to be only Americans and Asians who have the mental ability to live in such structures.
A problem which Bangkok must deal with is flooding, the city drainage system cannot cope with heavy downpours and trafficflow ceases in flooded streets.
Traffic light change time is very slow, often up to 5 minutes, this creates large buildups of vehicles. In London lights change much faster and traffic flow is more continuous.
I feel more use could be made of the river and canal network, more river buses and running later into the evening, more routes created by renovating some of the clogged and disused canals.
Finally the government should decentralise all government departments out of Bangkok and into the suburbs or further, many private companies would follow.

comment 1
Ginola date : 24/07/2008 time : 13.47
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/ginola
ginola

I'm one of those Bangkokians who haved live in the outskirts of the city. I grew up in the Bangkapi-Ramkhamhaeng area (Moobaan Summagorn) and I vividly remember the traffic jam every morning. What should be a 5-minute drive to my school took more than 1 hour! Later on, I moved to the Bangyai area in Nonthaburi which is also growing as a residential area.

It is my dream to have a BTS or MRT connecting the outskirts of Bangkok to the city. The plan to build it has been delayed for so many times already due to political infighting and change of governments.

Another great benefit of a good public transport system is the probably impact on Bangkok's oil consumption. I wouldn't bring my car to the city if there is a skytrain available. The reduction is fuel use would help reduce our imports of oil and hence improve our current account and reduce the economy's vulnerability to oil price variations.

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