Constructive Thoughts for the Day

Constructive Thoughts for the Day
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Thursday , April 17 , 2008

A self-fulfilling prophecy for Thailand’s economy and politics

Posted by Kriengsak , Reader : 2737 , 16:05:32 | Category : Economy

* ที่มาของภาพ - http://agrodev.doae.go.th/server/img/Blue%20hills.jpg Proverbial reference to, “A faith that moves mountains,” maybe indicates one who is firmly determined to do something, and who will thus ultimately accomplish their goals. Furthermore, wherever that belief is held by the public, the possibility that it will happen becomes far more than mere individual’s speculation. It becomes a phenomenon known as a, “self-fulfilling prophecy.” A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that becomes true due to the prediction itself. This concept is not new; it has been buried in the wisdom of mankind for a long time. There are works of literature in most world cultures that imply this idea, including Oedipus. Oedipus was abandoned by his father who was warned that his child would one day kill him. However, Oedipus was found and raised by foster parents, whom he thought to be his real parents. Eventually, he got into a fight with a stranger, and killed him. The stranger was his biological father. The concept of self-fulfilling prophecy is true in economics. There is a macroeconomic model, known as the Diamond Model, which explains economic growth through capital accumulation; in other words, where investment is a driving force to the economy. In addition, this model formulates consumption and investment behaviours in the model, yielding each year’s economic equilibria. In other words, it is a model that can forecast the value of consumption and GDP year by year. However, according to the model, several equilibria exist, rather than solely one equilibrium. Thus, within exactly the same context, investment has several possible values for an economy, causing its economic growth rate to be higher or lower than would naturally occur. As there is more than one possible point of equilibrium, how will the economy actually be? The answer lies in the expectation of the private sector. Under normal economic conditions, if the private sector optimistically expects the economy to grow, it will decide to invest and the economy will grow accordingly. On the other hand, if the private sector has a pessimistic expectation, it will not invest and the economy will slow down accordingly. A classic example of a self-fulfilling prophecy is the sunspot theory. The sunspot theory attributes economic fluctuations to the discovery of a sunspot, explaining that a sunspot will affect global weather, which will then affect the level of agricultural output. The sunspot theory was once believed by a lot of people and caused an actual fluctuation in Western stock markets whenever a new sunspot was discovered, in spite of a lack of fluctuation in agricultural output. Nevertheless, most scientists now unanimously agree that current climate change is due to human rather than natural causes. Thus, the sunspot theory seems irrational today. The self-fulfilling prophecy concept may give us insight into why macroeconomic organizations, not only in Thailand, but also worldwide, are inclined to overestimate the prospective economy in order to make their private sectors confident. Nonetheless, these expectations must rest on a foundation of truth. If their forecasts unacceptably deviate from actual economic states, private sectors worldwide will turn to disbelief, and growth rates will thus not be as high as announced. Besides the economy, self-fulfilling prophecies will also come true in the realm of politics, especially in Thai politics. I will now describe the relationship between political situations and astrological predictions. In Thailand, there are many astrologers and those who believe in them. So, it is not surprising to often hear about astrological predictions of future incidents, including political incidents. For some popular astrologers, highlights of their interviews will be carried on headline banners, which nearly all newspapers carry as tomorrow’s front page news. With surprising frequency, their predictions come true. If we apply the concept of a “self-fulfilling prophecy” to explain these mentioned cases, is it possible that the cause for their accuracy is in nothing but the predictions themselves? Is it possible that, despite the current political context of the time not acting as a trigger for it, the predictions of a menacing coup d’état will be believed by the public? Is it possible that the beliefs of the public, either directly or indirectly, will cause the government to be suspicious of those who are potential coup makers, thus changing their relationship for the worse? On the other hand, is it possible that the potential coup makers are encouraged by predictions and hence they dare to commit a coup d’état? Thus, I do not agree with astrologers who disseminate their predictions of bad incidents in the future. Although they predict with the good intention to warn people to contend with bad situations, in my opinion, that benefit is absolutely outweighed by the (mis)beliefs of the public that make the predictions, which were once impossible, to become true. As we now understand that our beliefs determine our future, there is one thing we should apply to our daily life - positive thinking – which is actually just a fundamental principle in psychology. When we have a positive attitude, we will act positively, and thus receive positive things in turn. Above all, if the Thai people will think positively in one accord, Thailand will become a positive society, which is what we desire.

* ที่มาของภาพ - http://agrodev.doae.go.th/server/img/Blue%20hills.jpg

Proverbial reference to, “A faith that moves mountains,” maybe indicates one who is firmly determined to do something, and who will thus ultimately accomplish their goals. Furthermore, wherever that belief is held by the public, the possibility that it will happen becomes far more than mere individual’s speculation. It becomes a phenomenon known as a, “self-fulfilling prophecy.”

A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that becomes true due to the prediction itself. This concept is not new; it has been buried in the wisdom of mankind for a long time. There are works of literature in most world cultures that imply this idea, including Oedipus. Oedipus was abandoned by his father who was warned that his child would one day kill him. However, Oedipus was found and raised by foster parents, whom he thought to be his real parents. Eventually, he got into a fight with a stranger, and killed him. The stranger was his biological father.

The concept of self-fulfilling prophecy is true in economics. There is a macroeconomic model, known as the Diamond Model, which explains economic growth through capital accumulation; in other words, where investment is a driving force to the economy. In addition, this model formulates consumption and investment behaviours in the model, yielding each year’s economic equilibria. In other words, it is a model that can forecast the value of consumption and GDP year by year.

However, according to the model, several equilibria exist, rather than solely one equilibrium. Thus, within exactly the same context, investment has several possible values for an economy, causing its economic growth rate to be higher or lower than would naturally occur.

As there is more than one possible point of equilibrium, how will the economy actually be? The answer lies in the expectation of the private sector. Under normal economic conditions, if the private sector optimistically expects the economy to grow, it will decide to invest and the economy will grow accordingly. On the other hand, if the private sector has a pessimistic expectation, it will not invest and the economy will slow down accordingly.

A classic example of a self-fulfilling prophecy is the sunspot theory. The sunspot theory attributes economic fluctuations to the discovery of a sunspot, explaining that a sunspot will affect global weather, which will then affect the level of agricultural output.

The sunspot theory was once believed by a lot of people and caused an actual fluctuation in Western stock markets whenever a new sunspot was discovered, in spite of a lack of fluctuation in agricultural output. Nevertheless, most scientists now unanimously agree that current climate change is due to human rather than natural causes. Thus, the sunspot theory seems irrational today.

The self-fulfilling prophecy concept may give us insight into why macroeconomic organizations, not only in Thailand, but also worldwide, are inclined to overestimate the prospective economy in order to make their private sectors confident. Nonetheless, these expectations must rest on a foundation of truth. If their forecasts unacceptably deviate from actual economic states, private sectors worldwide will turn to disbelief, and growth rates will thus not be as high as announced.

Besides the economy, self-fulfilling prophecies will also come true in the realm of politics, especially in Thai politics. I will now describe the relationship between political situations and astrological predictions.

In Thailand, there are many astrologers and those who believe in them. So, it is not surprising to often hear about astrological predictions of future incidents, including political incidents. For some popular astrologers, highlights of their interviews will be carried on headline banners, which nearly all newspapers carry as tomorrow’s front page news. With surprising frequency, their predictions come true.

If we apply the concept of a “self-fulfilling prophecy” to explain these mentioned cases, is it possible that the cause for their accuracy is in nothing but the predictions themselves?

Is it possible that, despite the current political context of the time not acting as a trigger for it, the predictions of a menacing coup d’état will be believed by the public? Is it possible that the beliefs of the public, either directly or indirectly, will cause the government to be suspicious of those who are potential coup makers, thus changing their relationship for the worse? On the other hand, is it possible that the potential coup makers are encouraged by predictions and hence they dare to commit a coup d’état?

Thus, I do not agree with astrologers who disseminate their predictions of bad incidents in the future. Although they predict with the good intention to warn people to contend with bad situations, in my opinion, that benefit is absolutely outweighed by the (mis)beliefs of the public that make the predictions, which were once impossible, to become true.

As we now understand that our beliefs determine our future, there is one thing we should apply to our daily life - positive thinking – which is actually just a fundamental principle in psychology. When we have a positive attitude, we will act positively, and thus receive positive things in turn. Above all, if the Thai people will think positively in one accord, Thailand will become a positive society, which is what we desire.

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comment 4
Kriengsak date : 24/04/2008 time : 14.17
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/kriengsak

thank you for all good comments.

comment 3
Obeyno1kinobe date : 18/04/2008 time : 16.40
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/obeyno1

Faith in astrology is hard for me to understand.

Just look at identical twins, born the same time, different life experience.

All the predictions are different.

No one is able to predict anything useful, like details about earthquakes and tsunami's.

Practicioners call it an imprecise science.

I call it a precise load of rubbish.

Pity so many people take it seriously.

Finally, when it started, people only new of 5 planets. Funny how the others they couldn't see have no effect.

Also, the star signs may have appeared like a pattern on the nightsky to ancients. Now we know they are actually stars that are totally different distances from earth, some are a few light years away. Others are actually galaxies, or stars millions of light years away, that only seem to be a pattern because of where we sit on planet earth. They'd all look different sitting in another solar system. Didn't Galileo work out earth is not the centre of the universe a few hundred years ago.

And can anyone explain to me the mechanism by which the positions of astrological bodies, and peoples birthdates impact our lives.

Seems like another relic of the past, when human understanding of the universe was much more limited. Floods were acts of god. The night was an oppressive blanket of darkness. And life was short and brutal and ignorant.

comment 2
wch date : 18/04/2008 time : 10.12

You speak like a disciple of Congzu, who said earlier, "Where the will be, is the passage !".

Indeed, there were many grand civil works through history, from earlier the Great Wall of Han's, English channel tunneling, and Japan's inner sea elevated highway, Now the cross peninsular canal project of Korea, More comes the tunneling underneath Barring sea (spell ?) and potential similar project under the Korean strait of 200km.

Thai people need, "Dream" first but they are drunken away always.

comment 1
Tawan date : 17/04/2008 time : 16.58
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/tawan3

How very true. Idealogy is dangerous in the hands of the wrong person. Talk big in Business people follow you. The belief that success no matter how gained is right is also dangerous. Corruption redifined is thus justified. Believing that most Thai people are ignorant keeps us in the hands of the few that we need so desperately to break away from. Injustices that keeps going unpunished only worsens the state of society and breeds contempt for disclosure transparency and regulation in the hands of a few.

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