The Abhisit government, with the help of the army operating under the State of Emergency law, has successfully restored order to Bangkok after the protesters have dispersed. The government has won the media battle and recevied a lot of praises from most of the Thai media and anti-Thaksin groups.

Yet, if we look deeply enough, this conflict is far from over. In fact, because of the crackdown on protesters, the conflict will likely escalate to a new level, sooner or later. Why so?

Imagine you are a fan of Thaksin and one of the 100,000 red-shirt supporters who came out last week, questioning the government's democratic legitimacy and criticizing the many double standards that you deem exist.

How has the events in the last few days made you feel?

When you see soldiers, equipped with war weapons like M-16, dispersing your fellow red shirts by firing gun shots (although the army says they are firing to the sky), how would you feel?

When you see that a score of your fellow red shirts suffering from injuries, some serious ones, and covered with bloods, how would you feel?

When you see the government cutting off the DTV signal, which is in your view the only media that you could rely on, how would you feel?

When you see your protest leaders get arrested and denied bail, how would you feel?

Given all these things, when you see that most of the media seem to be praising the government's actions, how would you feel?

I don't think it takes a PhD to realize that if you were one of the red shirt protesters, you would see the whole crackdown episode was totally unfair and brutal, something that reinforces the belief that you have always held.

That is, the belief that double standards exist and things always go against you and are in favor of the other side. Indeed, you'd likely be thinking, "whatever the other side does, it's ok. Whatever you do, it's not." 

Naturally, you will likely experience an even greater degree of anger, resentment and hatred toward the government. You may also be thinking of how to retaliate against the government. Thailand's political division, thus, looks to have deepened even further.

.........

Thus, I disagree with those who believe that the conflict is over and the government has won the battle. 

As much as I want Thaksin to stay out of politics and the division in the society to subside, these things are unlikely to come about. As much as I believed that the rule of law should be upheld and that some kind of tougher measures were necessary to control the situation, history has shown again and again that political conflict can never be settled by force.

Unfortunately for the Thai people, tougher and more violent means would likely lead to stronger and more violent response, as the red shirt protesters' sense of being unjustly dealt with become stronger. The battle will continue and it may not necessarily be in the form of mass protest; the battle might be fought underground.

For as long as the opposing camps at the elite level cannot find a mutually agreeable compromise and the opposing camps at the mass level do not try to understand - let alone reconcile - their differences, Thailand looks set to remain deeply divided and fragile.

If that's the case, then sadly but perhaps inevitably, it's only a matter of months, weeks or even days, before the next episode of the conflict, and bloodshed, begins.