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A Man's Random Walk
politik, economik, foreign affairs
Permalink : http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/ginola
Saturday , January 17 , 2009
Just some Thoughts: My Predictions of Thai Politics
Posted by Ginola , Reader : 908 , 14:31:37  
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I am no fortune teller, but let me give it a shot (just for fun).

Within one year from now, this is what I predict will happen in Thailand:

First, there will be huge crowds of red shirts in the streets of Bangkok, protesting against the Democrat government. Cases of alleged corruption and policy mistakes which fail to improve the country's economic situation will be the basis of the protests.

Second, the government will eventually not be able to govern, leading to house dissolution and general elections.

Third, Puea Thai Party will win the most seats in the elections, just a narrow victory over the Democrats. Bhumjai Thai will win the third most number of seats. Puea Thai will then form a coalition government with Bhumjai Thai and other small parties. Newin and Puea Thai members will join hands again and the famous hug between Newin and Abhisit would have meant nothing.

Forth, after the government is formed, however, Puea Thai Party will be dissolved for some reason. It may be because of vote buying cases in the elections or other charges, but it will be dissolved. The judiciary will also lose its credibility.

Thai politics will again return to chaos and a vacuum of power will be created. The power struggle between Mr.T and General P. will continue.

And who knows what will happen after that...

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comment 24
Seven date : 26/01/2009 time : 11.55
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/truethai
Sao Grabrong Hian

uups, the last line was not supposed to be there.
comment 23
Seven date : 26/01/2009 time : 11.53
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/truethai
Sao Grabrong Hian

Ian, you are right about that comment, but you must understand that peacefullness is a thai and thay are a little bit different from us. Not many of us are perfect, Ian. Only Lalida and your truly come close.
I do like Peacefullness and as he/she said there is no need to worry, mai dtong huang.
I am sad that a guy like Ginola believes in the darkness, we could use somebody like him on our side. Ginola, it is not too late to wake up. It is a great country, we have the best king in the world and the happy times are just around the corner.


peacefulness, comments like this make you lose all credibility
comment 22
Ian date : 24/01/2009 time : 17.48
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

peacefulness, comments like this make you lose all credibility, " the abhisit government has nothing to do with the pad or the military".
Sorry I prefer to believe what I see not what you tell me.
comment 21
peacefulness date : 24/01/2009 time : 11.51
Nationmultimedia.com

Ginola C17---- 1, chaos, yes, different scale from the redshirts under the leadership of “three bottle-headed stooge” ÊÒÁà¡ÅÍËÑǢǴ., jatuporn/natawut/veera plus jakrapob, dr san, dr wang ………..
Seizure of airport not possible, short of manpower, short of leadership, short of financial assistance, they commit suicide politically if they do.

2, parliament session, “lack of quorum”, this is a very normal happenings in thai parliament, it happened a couple of times during thaksin’s plutocratic regime both in his first term and second term and every government. Especially in his 2nd term with 377 seats one party controlled government. The reasons behind the scene are : conflict of interest within the coalition gov, some important issue unable to settle, above all these god forsaken politicians (mps) do not have the spirit of being a good politician,what they want are money, money, money, power ,power, power endlessly to fulfil their greed, their unhealthy attitude toward their people and their country.

3, the pads and h.e.kasit pirom, just FYI the 193days pad movement , up to this moment there are already 36 cases under investigation by police department, 17 cases already in court , such as seizure of government house/suvannabhumi apt/ nbt stn and so on………… it is time consuming process in court procedure.

h.e. kasit pirom participated the seminar held at the chulalongkorn univ on 19dec08 as an individual thai citizen walking the street of Bangkok before he was appointed as minister of foreign affairs on 22dec08, he also joined the pad movement a couple of times before that, same as peacefulness and other thai people from all walks of life. So what he said, “the food was excellent, the music was excellent and a lot of fun at airport “ has nothing to do with his being appointed minister of foreign affairs in the later days s s.

4, the redshirts on 31jan09 pls ref my comment 20

5, u said “As the economy gets worsen due to stupid, short-sighted policies, more mobs will follow” The economy gets worsen NOT due to stupid, short-sighted policies it was totally due to the global economy crisis including usa, uk, most of countries in Europe, japan,Singapore china as well. There are many stimulus package rendered lately. we, my wife and I, also benefit from these program such as over 60yrs will be given 500bht per month, I will register with the district office (ࢵ/ÍÓàÀÍ) from 26feb till 31mar and money will be given on 13apr09 the “senior citizen’s day” (Çѹ¼ÙéÊÙ§ÍÒÂØ).

Lastly, it is my sincere request that we , all thais, please be united as One to help our country to go on and on for the betterment of our people, our country in the future, especially intellecturals like "YOU" Ginola, Maxheadroom, Pomjuk , lalida and all others. tks
comment 20
peacefulness date : 23/01/2009 time : 19.42
Nationmultimedia.com

Ginola youngman—C15 firstly, thaksin is (WAS) politically dead for flwg reasons:
Aaa banned for political activities for 5 yrs by constitutional court 30may07-29may12
Bbb sentenced 2 yrs in jail term for guilty of violating articles 4, 100 and 122 “conflict of interest” of the National Counter Corruption Commission law by the supreme court for political position holders on 21oct08. this (2 yrs jail term)will also automatically disqualify thaksin status of coming back to power in the near future or faraway future, pls ref thai constitution section(article) 100 para2/3,102/174para4/5 for details. And also 7 arrest warrants still in effect.

Secondly, the redshirts will be miniatured sooner or later in the very near future, “No Money, No Come” à§Ô¹äÁèÁÒ ¤¹äÁèÁÒ. As reported by asahi he will not support the redshirts and puea thai pty financially, he claimed himself also in financially bottle-necked. Unbelievable!!!!!!
The other mobs , yes there are many many due to the global economic crisis, unemployment, factories closed, and so on………. Same same all around the world, usa, uk, most countries in Europe, even Singapore, japan , china face the same problem…….this is natural. No worry äÁèµéͧËèǧ….
Mob redshirts on 31jan09 regardless of the numbers , it makes no difference 20,000 or 50,000, most of them are our innocent , uninformed fellow folks that still in the darkness. Same like ginola and other bloggers/posters in the blogsite.

Thirdly, influences of thaksin will also be miniatured sooner or later of the above mentioned reasons.

Fourthly, the abhisit government has nothing to do with the pad or the military, it is legally selected/appointed in the parliament acrdg to thai constition 2007 , section(article) 172/174/180/182 and all the related.

Lastly, the country is not fine , yes , yes for the time being, but in the future it will be getting better,better and better with all the Helps from all the Thais I repeat with all the Helps from all the Thais.

Thai constitution 2007 , http://www.asianlii.org/th/legis/const/2007/1.html
comment 19
Ian date : 23/01/2009 time : 16.15
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Seven, I think Abhasit has problems on two fronts, internally there is the economy and disunity. externally there is the increasing bad image of Thailand. Much of this bad image has been created by the PAD and the army, who happen to be his main backers. It will be interesting to see how he copes, so far he seems to have caved in to both.
comment 18
Seven date : 23/01/2009 time : 15.51
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/truethai
Sao Grabrong Hian

Seizing the airport or even seizing government house would under normal circumstances be a crime. Unfortunately it was necessary, an evil to get rid of a bigger evil. I was shocked to learn that the PAD had seized the airport. If Thaksin had been a Mr Nice Guy, I would certainly have supported him. The problem is he is a Mr Greedy Corrupt Lawbreaking Bussinessman.
I don't know what Mr Abhisit is all about but I pray he will survive for at least 3 years.
And like peacefulness said, mai mee ngen, mai mee kon = no have money, no have people.
Like when you gamble there are winners and there are losers. Nobody knows the future but the reds look like losers at the moment. They are not holding the good cards. Thaksin is finished, Newin could be the new strong leader, he will be allowed to pull the strings behind the scene despite the fact that he is banned from politics. I will certainly keep my mouth shut. Politics is about making deals. The unity of the nation must have first priority. We can't have thais fighting thais, we can't have bombs in the streets.
I will give you this Ginola, you are a very good writer. You write like a native english speaker, actually you write better that the native english speakers we have here.
Be patient, the poor will get their man, they will just have to live with that it can't be Thaksin or any of his relatives or puppets. Newin and his father will have a future in thai politics.
comment 17
Ginola date : 23/01/2009 time : 14.50
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/ginola
ginola

Seven: I don't want to see chaos but I "expect" to see it. But don't worry, at least I don't think the red shirts will seize the airports.

As you can see, the government is already facing problems within the parliament. Even simple things like having enough MPs in house session to survive the quorum count are not easy. Not to mention the attacks that the opposition will provide to the government on various fronts: PAD legal case, Kasit, economic problems, corruption (like the expired canned fish) and so on.

The red shirts will have a rally on Jan 31. Surely the military will be holding check points to block some buses carrying protesters into Bangkok, but still I expect to see at least 20,000 people at Sanam Luang.

As the economy gets worsen due to stupid, short-sighted policies, more mobs will follow.

So, although some say the Democrats are on the rise, I say they are actually being overly optimistic that their sights are partially blinded (or "àËÅÔ§" in Thai).
comment 16
Seven date : 22/01/2009 time : 13.07
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/truethai
Sao Grabrong Hian

"Just for fun"?? Looks to me like you want chaos back. Finally I can breathe again, just like I could when the millitary ousted Mr T. It is a good feeling.
comment 15
Ginola date : 21/01/2009 time : 21.45
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/ginola
ginola

Peacefulness:

My caution to your predictions would be: don't underestimate Thaksin. The man is in a corner and will do things that you won't imagine of. I predict that red shirts will gather in huge crowds - by that I mean at least 50,000 people - within the next 6 months.

That, combined with other mobs that are unhappy about the economic situation, will make Abhisit's life extremely difficult.

Thaksin's influence is weakened but still strong enough to mobilize some mass movements.

But even if your predictions are true, the country is not fine. In contrast to the PAD claims, Thaksin's defeat does not represent the victory of the people, but the victory of the powers that be: the "establishment" of military-bureaucrats(judiciary)-aristocrats alliance.

And Rob:

Even the powers that be would resist the red shirts, but it won't be easy for them either.
comment 14
Ginola date : 20/01/2009 time : 20.56
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/ginola
ginola

To all: I guess we will have to wait and see...
comment 13
Piset date : 19/01/2009 time : 14.06
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/mahwatthai
Piset

Ginola:

Your prediction may have been more correct if this were made 2 years ago when the hopes for the new government set up after the coup evaporated and the fondness in many people in Thaksin remained strong while the cases and evidences of Thaksin's corruption and self-interested policies and practices have not been spread to enough of the general public, plus, another good leader in the country was not in sight.

Now, the time is different. Thaksin's challenges that people go after his wrongdoing according to the laws proved to be fatal to his own political career as concrete and ample evidences have been brought before the courts of laws. Even his challenge for the opposition to try to win over him through the parliamentary process has failed himself.

Now, the only thing remaining is Thaksin is screaming "unfair" to everything blaming everything just like a crying baby. His days are gone as do his hope to become an untouchable evangelist leader among the rural illiterate poors.

Peacefulness' predictions are very reasonable given the known characters of Thai society and Thai politicians.

Those PTP MPs simply cannot withstand the starvation being on the oppositions. They are not used to that. When those politicians are all starved out, how can they maintain they "bought" "supports" from the grassroots.

The table has already turn against PTP. Now, with the Democrats beating PTP in their own games of populist plus the up coming land reform which, if successful, will help more farmers to the ownership of their farm land, thus, given most of them the most fundamental factors of their economic livelihood. With that, no amount of the words from the losers can ever help them win back the hearts of those rural poors.

Thaksin, redshirts, and PTP are dimming and dying out.
comment 12
noner date : 19/01/2009 time : 12.38

I would put my money on Peacefulness's c7 prediction. The Reds are deducing in size, fast. A lot less money = a lot less support since most of them they no real cause to hold on to (i said most, not all). Yes, some people might disagree with the government, but they don't have enough reason to stop working and take it to the streets again (for free). I don't think that the Reds will recover from this. They will not be able to organize mass rally like they did before. Actually none of the Reds' leaders want to be the head of the organization anymore. I heard that most of them are backing away once they were offered the head post. In addition, no matter if you agree with the stimulus package or not, it would help the Democrats in the term of its popularity among lower income Thais. This would boost their support, a momentum they've won since the last by-election (beating Phue Thai in some of the Reds area).

Of course, most politicians entered the field of politic for incentives other than peace and freedom. However, I have to agree that there are more extreme version of these sort of parasites in Phue Thai's corner. Not being in charge means less opportunity to make money, both at national and local levels, and these parasites usually live only on dirty hard cash... so they will back away slowly.

I think that the situation in Thailand will be much better. However, i don't think that it will be "super fine" Knowing how shameless Thai politicians are, they will try to come back out, too stupid to realized that their days are over.
comment 11
rob date : 19/01/2009 time : 09.16

in C10 the reference to C5 of course should be c6 with apologies
comment 10
rob date : 19/01/2009 time : 09.15

Gina
No
(i) as stated, the powers that be will not allow such protests especially in the turmoil of c5 approaches. expect states of emergency etc
(ii) yous eem to have forgotten the dem is an alliance of two,. the internal silent pad have not gone away, they are active and will not allow such to develop
their support (= immunity) will be as high as before, unlike the reds, if they activate again and excise themselves from the current convenient position of steering / policing the muppet government from within
comment 9
rob date : 19/01/2009 time : 09.12

C6
No and yes
really old and soon to die yes
but then a problem as two successsors one very unpopular, but also somehat ill and potentially not that long lived either,maybe depends upon current and future medication, but long enough for appointment. However, if appointed is a self imploding choice. But the conventional and traditional choice and supported by many old guard with power.
The other popular and much liked appointment would be resisted from the old guard, never heard of before to appoint over the former.
So although the law for such an appointment has been made, and the potential exists, the FORMAL WRITTEN will of the dying one has not been stated yet, oddly, so expect all manner of problems and internal conflict with transient poewer struggles
also expect some confusion across the nation. most people have nevers een a change in this stsytem in their lifetime, perhaps no idea how to handle the grief or fear, so an odd moment for turmoil as low guards etc
comment 8
Ian date : 18/01/2009 time : 21.08
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

I like Abhasit, he seems determined to let the Thai economy implode, he seems to have no idea how to handle the economic crisis. So with luck the Baht will ultimately collapse and I will be rich again. So well done Abhasit, keep up the good work.
comment 7
peacefulness date : 18/01/2009 time : 18.40
Nationmultimedia.com


My prediction for h.e.abhisit vejjajiva the 27th prime minister of Thailand, seriously not for fun.

Firstly, The redshirts will be melted down one by one to less than thousands if not hundreds or even tens. No money no come(äÁèÁ×à§Ô¹ äÁèÁפ¹).

Secondly, abhisit’s government most probably will stay up to the end of this term on 28jan2012 or nearest.(this term started with samak sundaravej as pm from 29jan08).

Thirdly, the puea thai pty will be degraded to a small pty less then 20seats in the next gen.election if any, and no chance of forming a government.(most of the mps will move to the big pty for their own survival).
Newin and other triple ones 111 including thaksin have no chance at all ,they hv been banned for political activities for 5 yrs started from 30may2007wl be expired on 29may2012 as verdicted by the constitutional court, and the second grp 109 executive committees of chart thai, Ppp pty and machima pty also banned , started from 02dec08 and will be expired on 01dec2013, all for “electoral fraud” ,TAKE A REST FOLKS.

Fourthly, puea thai pty will dissolve by itself for no financial assistance and no smart guys to be party leader, most of them are parasites. If they commit electoral fraud of course will be dissolved by the constitutional court again and again……. The judicial system is now on its proper tracks since the collapse of thaksin’s plutocratic regime.

Lastly, the political situation of our country will be fine and fine, super fine with the helps of all THAIS in all aspects. Hopefully h.e.abhisit will tackle all the uphill tasks that face our country with ease and again with helps of all THAIS.
tks
comment 6
iceberg date : 17/01/2009 time : 22.22
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/ranchhand

But one party is getting really old. The struggle for true democracy won't take that long. It will come sooner in less than a year.
comment 5
MaxHeadroom date : 17/01/2009 time : 17.05
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/maxheadroom

(1) Newin's times are over, chances he will become a key player again are not great. He has been paid for retirement already (something above THB 40M).

(2) Smaller parties will likely get more shares from protest voters.

(3) You wouldn't need any street protest to bring down a government that has the potential to collapse in on itself.
comment 4
Ginola date : 17/01/2009 time : 15.24
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/ginola
ginola

Ian,

I think a large crowd is probable. Just take a look at the crowds at the Rajamankhla stadium last time Thaksin phoned in. There were at least 4-50,000 people there.

When the time is right (by that I mean when this government has committed enough mistakes), I believe large crowds of red shirts can gather and will make it extremely difficult for the government to stay in power.
comment 3
Ian date : 17/01/2009 time : 15.16
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

I cannot see this, "huge crowds of red shirts in the streets of Bangkok, protesting against the Democrat government".
The dice are too heavily loaded against them with the police, army and judiciary on the side of the Democrats. No matter how peaceful the demonstration it will be declared otherwise and the juggernaut will roll into action.
comment 2
DKO date : 17/01/2009 time : 15.14
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/DKO

Reads like déjà vu to me Ginola
comment 1
sul date : 17/01/2009 time : 15.06
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sul


let's see how true your predictions are
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