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A Man's Random Walk
politik, economik, foreign affairs
Permalink : http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/ginola
Sunday , November 30 , 2008
To the government and the PAD: please put the country's interests before your own
Posted by Ginola , Reader : 922 , 06:07:16  
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The government has no legitimacy to rule after the October 7 crackdown on protesters has resulted in several injuries and deaths. It has failed to take concrete actions to prevent violence and has become too concerned about its own survival rather than the country's. It is hardly functional, and therefore should dissolve the house and return power to all Thai people.

The PAD has no legitimacy to continue its completely insane, illegal and costly protests. Protesting against and making criticisms of the government is one thing, seizing the airports is another. No matter how bad the government is, the PAD's latest moves are neither legal nor peaceful nor proper means of staging protests. It is highly costly and totally disrespectful of other people. The PAD must retreat from the airports immediately without conditionality of Somchai's resignation.

Both sides - by hanging on to power (government) and by staging completely insane protests (PAD) - have put Thailand at great risks. Needless to say, the damage is being done and many innocent people have suffered economically, physically and psychologically.

A taxi driver in New Haven asked me last night about the political conflict in Thailand. A French cook in Montreal asked me a few days ago about this too. The image of Thailand to the world is like shit. Where has the 'land of smile' gone?

We also don't need military intervention. It won't help resolve the conflict. In fact, it will escalate it. I predicted that the 2006 coup would escalate the conflict and I was right. There is no reason I would change my position in predicting the impact of a possible next coup.

There is still time for both sides to put the country's interests before their own. This conflict is not about protecting democracy or the monarchy or correcting a bad government any more. It has become a war in which all that each side cares about is achieving a 'victory' at any costs.

I condemn both sides for contributing the current situation. It's time they begin to think about respecting other people's rights to live their life and do their jobs peacefully in a friendly society.

Dissolving the house and ending the seizure of the airports will not resolve this conflict, but it's the best short-term move for the country to avoid escalation of the conflict which would inevitably lead to chaos and loss of lives.

Einstein once said: "Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius -- and a lot of courage -- to move in the opposite direction."

It is time both sides stop behaving like a fool and show some moral courage to take actions that are best for the country.

Read comment

comment 40
roswell43 date : 02/12/2008 time : 08.46

The problem will forever there unless everyone admit the root of the problem. No human being should be treated like God. Human being need to protected his own interest and also the interest of the people surrounding and serving them, no matter they are in what position. Just put more time to think who is good for the country in general. Corruption is deeply rooted in everwhere, l don't believe anyone can delcare he or she is 100% clean. Remove away the issue of corruption and get a thought who is right and who is wrong. Lastly, remember no one human being is GOD.

An extract from an article from the Internet

Part of the reason why it may be hard, at least for formal media organisations, to tell the story is because it involves the royal family and Thailand's strict lese majesté law makes it a crime to mention royalty in unflattering light. Like Singapore's use of defamation suits and more recently contempt of court laws, the lese majesté law has the effect of creating self-censorship.

What is happening in Thailand this year is really a war of succession. This is a classic kind of conflict that arises when a political era has ended or is coming to an end and various powers jostle to seize the upper hand for the next period. The era that is ending is the reign of King Rama IX (Bhumibol Adulyadej), but apparently, you're not even supposed to insinuate that!

For much of his reign, Thailand has been ruled alternately by military dictatorships and short-lived parliamentary governments. Whether one or the other, generals, politicians and senior civil servants have been drawn from the social elite, who have mostly served the interests of their own class. Thailand is relatively business-friendly because this class owns a lot of businesses. Development is centred on Bangkok, because this class is mostly based in the capital, while much of Thailand remains dirt-poor. The wealth gap between those who live in upscale Suan Phlu condominiums and their maids' families back in a rural village is shocking.

Despite these tensions, social peace has been maintained through a triad of reasons:

Firstly, Thai governments, whatever their ilk, have not done absolutely nothing for the provinces; they have done at least the minimum, such as extending the electrical grid, building roads and providing schools, that provides a semblance of progress.

Secondly, Bhumibol is genuinely popular. He spent many years criss-crossing the country listening to country folk and it is largely through his personal influence that Thai governments have not completely neglected the provinces. (But see also the box at right.)

Thirdly, Thai culture is not yet fully modern. It sees social stratification as normal and people accommodate themselves to this fact of life through a complex system of patronage. Higher-ups are respected for the gifts that they occasionally shower on poorer folk, who return the favour with loyalty; at no time do people question why some chaps are rich and powerful enough to dispense patronage and why others must remain receivers of charity.

While respect for the king is definitely genuine, it should also be noted that there has been a huge amount of propaganda over the decades building up the image of the monarchy. In Thailand, one is frequently struck by the excessive, usually obsequious, display of engineered adulation.

Despite the spread of schools, educational standards are still poor and (I believe) a majority of children in the provinces do not finish middle school. What is produced is a large pool of minimally-educated workers who are able to staff the production lines, restaurants and hotels of booming Bangkok and its industrial estates, but who do not expect the social mobility to ever challenge the place of the elite.

Then came the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and Thaksin Shinawatra. The first felled many rich Thais who had over-extended themselves by borrowing abroad (at fixed exchange rates) to fund their domestic investments. The moment the Thai central bank could not maintain the exchange rate and was forced to devalue the baht, whole swathes of rich Thai society were financially crippled. Large projects in Bangkok stood unfinished. Suddenly, the upper class of Thai society did not look so permanent after all.

Into this situation burst Thaksin Shawatra, who was already a tycoon before he entered politics. In 2001, he won the general election -– then considered one of the most open, corruption-free elections ever held -- becoming prime minister. His government promptly instituted a series of populist measures, including the 30-baht healthcare scheme that brought state healthcare within reach of many rural families for the first time.

With his popularity so cemented, he proved he could win successive elections. In 2005, his Thai Rak Thai party swept 374 seats in the 500-seat lower house. This model for winning elections -– appealing to the interests of the provincial masses -– would prove highly threatening to the Bangkok elite. For the first time, they had to contemplate a government that did not depend on them, or on the royal court, for favours.

Accusations were hurled at him about corruption, vote-buying, and so on, and possibly some of the charges may well be true, though in the present charged, partisan atmosphere, it is difficult to get an impartial view as to the real facts.

Before long, Sondhi Limthongkul, a media magnate, emerged as the point man for the anti-Thaksin campaign. From the beginning, Sondhi and his People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) were reputed to enjoy support from not only a cross section of the Bangkok elite, but from the court as well.

Propelling his campiagn was a sense that the political equation in Thailand had changed. The docile masses had tasted the power of their voting rights, and would in time become more and more assertive. Through Thaksin's party, they would become the new permanent majority in Thailand's politics, sidelining the old order.

So came the coup of September 2006 and a short period of military rule. Yet, it changed nothing, for when elections under a new constitution were held again in December 2007, the People Power Party (PPP), the successor to the banned Thai Rak Thai, became the largest party in parliament, and with a few allies, formed the post-coup government.

That's when the PAD changed its tune. From asserting that its campaign was against Thaksin's corrupt politics, it finally came out to say that its aim was to rewrite the constitution to make future parliaments 70 percent appointed. The masses were not to be trusted with the vote because, according to Sondhi, they were "ill-educated" and prone to selling their vote.

This is an admission that one leg of the triad that kept the old order in place has been knocked out. The masses have been empowered through their experience of Thaksin-style populism and they are not likely to go back to their meek selves.

But who would be doing the appointing of the 70 percent? Nobody ever details that.

Another leg is cracking too. King Bhumibol is now frail. He will turn 81 next month. The crown prince enjoys nothing like the same reverence that the old king does. When Bhumibol goes, the second leg of the triad goes too.

That this prospect figures strongly in the PAD's calculations was seen when -- I wish I had kept the quote and reference -- Sondhi let slip that the matter was urgent: The problem had to be solved before the royal succession.

Everybody in Thailand knows, but no one is saying it: The royal court is one of the key parties behind the PAD. Why? They need to institutionalise their grip on power before the informal influence wielded by the old king fades into history. At the same time, this faction has wide support among the Bangkok elite because they too see their interests threatened when future governments are beholden to the provincial masses rather than to them.

This is why I say it's a classic war of succession. Who would hold sway over the future of Thailand post-Bhumibol? As the king's health deteriorates, the battle becomes ever more desperate -- to the extent of seizing the airport and cutting off Bangkok from the rest of the world. The PAD and its backers see it as an existential struggle. That being the case, it hardly matters whether Thailand's economy is destroyed in the process, because if they fail, they'd be destroyed.
comment 39
massein date : 02/12/2008 time : 03.44
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/massein

I sure there is a egomanic out there that will give it a go, power is just to intoxicating. we can just hope he doesn't steel the whole show, there is not much left
comment 38
massein date : 01/12/2008 time : 13.30
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/massein

Mr T and Mr. Gates together could not buy us out of the cesspool we step into in Thailand
comment 37
Ian date : 30/11/2008 time : 21.35
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Damn, I knew I should stop using teabags!
comment 36
rad date : 30/11/2008 time : 21.11
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/rad

Ian,
You are left to guess who can best handle the situation.

And we will all be thankful, someone to guide us and care for us, spiritually of couse, not financially.

Once you drink the tea, Grasshopper, the leaves become clear.
comment 35
Ian date : 30/11/2008 time : 20.14
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Rad, one thing is very clear, with the enormous financial losses that have been inflicted so far by this conflict plus any further ones, combined with the global crisis, this country is in deep shit. I don't see how anyone can pull this country out of the cess pit it has, not fallen into, but jumped into.
comment 34
sul date : 30/11/2008 time : 19.38
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sul


C30;

somebody got the priorities wrong
comment 33
rad date : 30/11/2008 time : 19.38
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/rad

Ian,
Right about that, while all of the balls are still in the air no intelligent person will step forward.

There is an opening for a egomaniac, but that is not the answer.

The national government is sounding more like the answer. I was hoping the coalition could pulll it off, that would have meant that they shook the reins of Dr T and defeated the other guy.

But, alas it is not to be.

Think about this, PAD outsmarted the government, PAD was on its last legs. The logistics involved in moving the people from GH to the airport, taking the airport and no one knowing or if knowing no one doing anything. That is not much of a vote for the elected guys.
comment 32
sul date : 30/11/2008 time : 19.37
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sul


C27;
Me ?
comment 31
Ian date : 30/11/2008 time : 18.39
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Rad, could be, so where is his replacement, I see no one rushing forward. This country has become a hot potato.
comment 30
rad date : 30/11/2008 time : 18.08
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/rad

What you describe is a failure, not a leader. Earlier you were talking about delegation. Was Peru more important than the internal strife? The other foreign junkets the same?

The world as he knows it is tumbling down around him and he leaves the scene like a shoplifter.
comment 29
Ian date : 30/11/2008 time : 18.03
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Just for interest, Piset has just deleted this comment of mine in his blog urging a boycott of Thailand.

"Ignoring Piset's outburst and lack of knowledge of weapons. Does anyone wonder why the headline of this blog is to urge the destruction of the Thai economy further. Could it be because his loyalties lie with China not Thailand?
If this comment is quickly deleted I will take that as confirmation."

I gues he has confirmed it
comment 28
Ian date : 30/11/2008 time : 17.26
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Rad, I agree, "his responsibility is to investigate and punish as necessary."
But in fairness to the man when did he last get a chance to pause? He has been faced with a non stop flow of tasks and disasters. Cambodia, Peru, ASEAN, Royal funeral, a growingly vociferous PAD, an economic tsunami on the horizon. He is just a man not a giant.
comment 27
massein date : 30/11/2008 time : 17.09
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/massein

sul c23 i now no what the problem is
comment 26
rad date : 30/11/2008 time : 15.38
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/rad

Ian,
"The PM gave the order, Chavalit carried it out."

That summarises my point.

To flesh it out a little , if the PM authorized the no announcement plan, then he is responsibile for the death and injuries as it was a wrongful act.

If the subordinate changed the plan from announce to unannounce then he is responsibile for the death and injuries.

But, in either case the PM is responsibile, in the first case, it is to resign and face charges if deemed applicapable, the second case, his responsibility is to investigate and punish as necessary.

Now I can't say that here that is the way it works because it didn't, but I can say that is a fundamental problem, lack of acceptance of responsibility.
comment 25
Ian date : 30/11/2008 time : 15.17
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Rad, if you work for me and I send you to buy an apple, must I follow you to the shop to make sure you don't buy a banana.
You are in effect saying that a PM cannot delegate any task. The PM gave the order, Chavalit carried it out.
comment 24
sul date : 30/11/2008 time : 15.00
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sul


C23;

some one got to take the blame :-)
comment 23
rad date : 30/11/2008 time : 14.58
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/rad

Sul,
That is not possible the PM gave the order.

That is what happens when you pick a whimp to run the country, no body takes responsibility for their actions and beer is now 40 baht a bottle.
comment 22
sul date : 30/11/2008 time : 14.50
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sul


C21;

are you sure you have been keeping up with the current news? The one responsible went to become a monk for 15 days
comment 21
rad date : 30/11/2008 time : 14.44
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/rad

c18
Didn't he say he would resign if found to be responsibile for Oct 7?

At what point do you resign? You are the commander and chief of failure, is there something here worth sticking a round for?
comment 20
Ian date : 30/11/2008 time : 14.28
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

comment 18. If the dog had not jumped into the boat the gun would not have gone off and killed the gun owner.

The PAD was the dog, Government House was the boat, the police were the loaded gun, the owner was democracy.
comment 19
sul date : 30/11/2008 time : 14.25
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sul


C18;

you are kidding aren't you? No government in the world will resign becos of the 7th Oct incident

the PAD started off with a "good" cause; but now they are uncontrollable
comment 18
Ginola date : 30/11/2008 time : 13.32
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/ginola
ginola

I think the PM should resign or dissolve the house NOT because of the PAD protests but because of the October 7 incident.

The government is in charge of directing the police and when the police failed to adhere to international standards in its attempt to disperse the protest, resulting in injuries and deaths, the government must be held responsible for that.

In my view, this one incident alone is enough for the public to expect the PM to resign or dissolve the house.

As many of you know, I have not been a big fan of PAD. I hate many of the PAD's means and disagree with its stubborn of removing the government at all costs, although I do recognize that some of the PAD supporters are more rational and intelligent than others.

In my view, the PAD could have become a much more constructive social force. Instead it has become a rather villainous movement with little brain and many costs to the society. Its leaders and most of its supporters don't understand what democracy is (the government also doesn't understand it).

The PAD should have played by the rule of law. It shouldn't have seized govt house or airports. In my view, achieving the removal of a bad government is secondary to using the appropriate and legitimate means of protest. Martin Luther King Jr fought PEACEFULLY for rights of the black people. He led a good course with good means and genuinely good heart. In the end, he was dead but his course was successfull. The PAD, on the other hand, leads a possibly good course using illegitimate and insane means. It probably won't achieve anything close to victory. It will probably be remembered by most people as villains rather than heroes.

I don't know what's going to happen next. I hope, however, that we Thais would learn to express our thoughts and participate in politics in a more constructive and legitimate ways than the PAD.

Sul: read my old blog on "majority, minority and democracy".
comment 17
rad date : 30/11/2008 time : 12.40
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/rad

c14,
You over generalize, the government shot themselves in the foot, they didn't follow simple acceptable procedure and the court reacted. Had they of performed according to fairly universal guidelines things would be different. Now they are walking on eggshells and faced with dealing with a problem that has gotten out of control and probably beyond their capabilities.

The problem for them now is how do they fix it.
comment 16
Ian date : 30/11/2008 time : 12.31
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Rad, Russia had a similar problem with a school occupied with terrorists. They used sleeping gas. The airport is too large for this, but it would work in Government house which would give a psychological boost to the police.
If this gas is not available they could use ether a common industrial solvent, but this has a fire and explosion risk.
comment 15
sul date : 30/11/2008 time : 12.22
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sul


C13;

"smiling terrorists" ?
comment 14
thevoice date : 30/11/2008 time : 11.46
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/the-voice

Ginola, if the government has no right to do a crackdown on these protesters then what can be done? You think these portesters are no difference from any other terrorists? Look what they have done. The government is paid to protect the country. National security is their priority so I don't think the government is wrong for the Oct 7 crackdown. It is their responsibility.
comment 13
rad date : 30/11/2008 time : 11.40
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/rad

Ian,
That is one of the reasons I see that is hamstringing the government. How do you machine gun a group of people who seem orderly, happy and singing?

Easy to call them terrorists but that is not the picture the world is seeing, especially following the act in India.

This has become a very complex problem.
comment 12
Ian date : 30/11/2008 time : 11.23
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Rad, I am totally bemused, I see videos of tourists wandering into the airports, videos of uniformed police also wandering around in the airport. everything is in a state of suspension waiting to see what will happen after the court hands down its verdict.
It reminds me of the WW1 "Christmas truce"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christmas_truce
comment 11
rad date : 30/11/2008 time : 11.00
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/rad

Sul,
Like I said before if the PM gives orders that result in death and destruction and is dimissed the next day who will be the fall guy? Better to wait and see who is in charge.
comment 10
sul date : 30/11/2008 time : 10.42
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sul


the courts' decision has nothing to do with what is happening to the airports
comment 9
rad date : 30/11/2008 time : 10.40
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/rad

Ian,
I was watching TV last night and for a while again this morning, lots of people were still going into the airports.

Letting them in makes no sense tacticaly, so one can only guess as to what kind of plan the authorities have in mind.

In reality were I any of the government leaders, I would take no action before the court read its verdict.

Too much up in the air. The authorities have let the sense of emergency at the airport pass so there would seem to be no rush to action.
comment 8
Ian date : 30/11/2008 time : 10.23
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Rad, Thailand now effectively has two governments, one seems determined to destroy Thailand, the other is helpless to prevent it because its agents refuse to act.
The real losers are the passive, disinterested Thai people, who frankly I think will deserve what they get as their reward for ignoring events.
comment 7
rad date : 30/11/2008 time : 10.09
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/rad

Ginola,
Another well thought out blog. But, the blame game is still the favorite. "It was the other guy"

Like no one knows PADs crimes and like the government has been effective in dealing with this problem.

That PAD is holding the country hostage, that is the problem at hand.

If the other government bodies refuse to help the PM, does that mean his job is through? He can now sit and wring his hands knowing he has done all that he can do? Let PAD continue to hold the country hostage while he sits in Chiang Mai?

Lets hope that what forces he does command carry out the plan the police have been working on.
comment 6
massein date : 30/11/2008 time : 10.09
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/massein

Actually It hasn't done nothing, It has on several occasions attempted to modify the Constitution, and it has said it will give more money to communities I think, but they have pass no law to protect the ppl from corruption, or any social problems. So I guess you are right. They have done nothing wrong, because they have done nothing But what do I know i'm just a stupid farang
comment 5
sul date : 30/11/2008 time : 08.37
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sul


like it or not, the majority rules
and that's the rule of the game

cannot see that the majority has been hassling the minority

many fail to consider the presense of Red shirts; if the government decides to dissolve the House and call for an election, will the PAD supporters and Red shirts accept the results of the new elections? The results must be accepted by (nearly) everyone in the country
comment 4
Hermano_Lobo date : 30/11/2008 time : 08.23
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/yurivelasquez

Thailand as I once knew it, is finished.
Perhaps an assassin's bullet will take out Chamlong or Sondhi? But I doubt it.
Burma Mk II, here we come !
comment 3
Ian date : 30/11/2008 time : 08.06
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

This present situation is 100% the result of the State servants refusing to obey the State. Political dissent is expressed on the floor of the Parliament and in the ballot box, not by violent mobs. If a few very powerful unelected persons don't like the government this does not give them the right to try to topple it by non democratic means.
comment 2
Alien date : 30/11/2008 time : 06.55

The problem is that both, the PAD and the PPP think that their interests ARE the country's interests. They are both convinced that if they win, everything will be OK. The opposite is true. A victory by either side will be the result of, or lead to, greater bloodshed. I don't see anyway out of this mess with these two sides involved. I'm sorry, I only see it getting worse.
comment 1
FOS date : 30/11/2008 time : 06.51
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

Ginola,

Lets put their competent on the side first. I ask, what has this government did wrong so far? Has it been corrupting? Has it make any damage to this country yet? What legitimacy are you referring to. If you want to talk about Oct 7th, shall we talk about now? The police have totally ignored the PAD marching to the airport and what has it become now. Who's fault is it? Who condemn the police force when they came out to protect our rights? Are you more then happy now to see this country in destruction?

The Govt holding on to power, have you forgotten this Govt was elected by one citizen one vote? So what power are they holding except the power of the people?

If you highly educated have notice the interest of the country is the most importance of all, we wouldn't be in this shit hole todate. Think about it Ginola, who are the original fools.....
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