• Ginola
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A Man's Random Walk
politik, economik, foreign affairs
Permalink : http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/ginola
Sunday , December 23 , 2007
Lessons from elections: will we ever learn?
Posted by Ginola , Reader : 1213 , 21:51:48  
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Aas of 9pm Sunday's night, according to the Nation and Manager Online, the People Power Party is set win 233 seats while the Democrats should win about 160 seats. Official results may differ slightly but one can see a picture of Thai politics from the the preliminary election results.

What are the lessons we all can learn here?

First, Thailand is indeed divided politically and economically. Voters in Bangkok and the South have a very different idea about who should be their government from voters in the North and the Northeast.

The Democrats win heavily in Bangkok and the South. According to Manager Online, the Democrat Party wins 75 seats, out of 127 constituency seats it wins in total, in these two regions. The party only wins 13 seats in the North and 2 in the Northeast. It wins 37 in the Central and Eastern region.

The PPP, on the other hand, is set to win 99 seats in the Northeast and 48 in the North. That's 147 seats out of 198 constituency seats it is set to win. It wins only 11 seats in Bangkok and 2 in the South. It gets 38 in the Central and Eastern region.

Clearly, whereas most people in the poorest regions of the country - 61% in the North and 71% in the Northeast - prefer the PPP as their government, most people in the more economically developed regions - the South and Bangkok - prefer the Democrat Party. The proportionate MPs election results confirm this, with the PPP and the Democrats each winning about 35 seats. Again, the election results underline Anek Laothamatas' point made in 1995.

The second lesson, and the most important one we should learn, is that people cannot be denied. I repeat, people cannot be denied. Democracy is the rule of the game here and Thailand has come so far that nothing can deny the choice of the people. Not even a military coup; people no longer bow to elites domination of politics.

I hope last year's coup is the last coup for Thailand. We must work from now on to accept the majority's choice and make democracy work under the constitutional rule. Accept that Thailand is not anyone's; it belongs to all 65 million people, each vote counts equally and the country's political course shall not be decided by the opinion of any particular group or class. These are my hopes but I'm not sure if they would become true.

Right now, I'm pondering on a comment my friend made one day after the Sep 2006 coup: "The answer is blowing in the wind. When will we ever learn?"

...will we ever learn?


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comment 6
travelcat date : 25/12/2007 time : 07.50
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/travelwhattravel

As Mister Jagger once sings "You can't always get what you want" - but what you need.

Thailand need the government real bad to solve many problems right now. I admitted that I did vote for Samak. But since he wins he can form a government and become the next prime minister.

In fact, Samak is not real bad. He is intelligent in many ways - "big mouth" especially. But many people claim that Samak is new Thaksin, and they are afraid that he might take Thailand to Thaksin's way.

But. There is once saying "the folks in upcountry decide who is the prime minister, but the city-dwellers who sack the PM from the House."

If Samak ever will give Thaksin's benefit his priority, we will meet up on the street again. We will meet up on the streets.


Merry Christmas
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6w9xOTr9P8
comment 5
Ian date : 24/12/2007 time : 15.50
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Camel, until recently I would have agreed with you and I also though education was the key to democracy. Yet in the last week I have heard many "uneducated" Thais in my community discussion the political pros and cons very shrewdly. They are not voting blindly.
comment 4
Camel date : 24/12/2007 time : 14.50

The regions that are easily bought, vote for one party and the regions that are not easily vote but better educated vote for the other one, I just don’t think this is the way forward, this still smelling strange.
comment 3
Ian_the_younger date : 24/12/2007 time : 14.12
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/poomjai

Ginola,

Show me a country that isn't divided polically? (except of course places like North Korea!). People often talk about the North / South divide for places like the UK and US too. But that divide, over the longer term, is not enough stop governments changing colour on a regular basis. I guess in Thailand one problem is that there was only ever one government which managed to stay in power for a full term (until it too was ousted). The real proving ground will be whether Thailand can settle into the regular rhythm of 4 yearly general election and perhaps as or less frequently, regular government turn over. I sincerely hope that it can.
comment 2
Ian date : 24/12/2007 time : 11.41
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

RWS, if I may continue your analogy, it is a match in which the linesmen are visible but the referee is hiding. A game in which the players often change sides with the other team and the rules are invented by the linesmen as the game progresses. The spectators can vote any player off the field and the linesmen chose the substitute player.
comment 1
redandwhitestripes date : 23/12/2007 time : 22.20
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/reallifethailand

I admire your positivity but I'm not so sure I can agree with your second point. We seem to be stuck in a vicious cycle. What has really changed from two years ago? he Dems at least have enough to use "checks and balances" as Thais call it, but on the other side we have the Thai Rak Thai reserve squad. Like most reserve players, they are more Callum Davenport than David Ginola. Their ability is not as large as their verbosity.

The army are watching Prem is not happy, others are probably not happy, PPP are ready to subvert justice.

I fear we are simply moving backwards. I hope I'm wrong.
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