Exactly 15 months have passed since the September 2006 coup. It's been a turbulent and wasted period that has seen a rise in military budget, the passage of a controversial national security bill, the passage of Thailand's 18th constitution, and not much of anything else. No significant progress has been made in addressing important complex problems that need to be addressed: poverty, education, Southern unrest, etc.

Out of these disappointing 15 months, however, I see one positive sign of progress in Thai politics.

In every coup prior to 2006, the junta found it relatively simple to manage the aftermath of the coup. In 1992, for example, when general elections were held after the 1991 coup, the junta's party won most the seats in the parliament and formed a coalition government.

In contrast, it is clear that the junta in 2007 Thailand has found it difficult to manage the situation after the coup. The referendum of the constitution was passed with a lot of "no" votes, reflecting that a large number of Thais disagreed with the coup. Plus, various public opinion polls have shown that the PPP is in the lead and is likely to win the most number of seats in the coming elections, again a new phenomenon never witnessed before in Thai politics.

What can we interpret from this development? One might say that Thaksin is still powerful and his big money is still financing his networks. Partly true, but I would contend that the more powerful explanation is that the Thai society has changed significantly in such a way that Thai people have better learned their rights in the democratic system. I believe people have learned that they, too, should and could have a say in the course of the country, and that they could express their disagreement with the military elites.

I would also contend that Thai people, especially the lower classes of the society, have become more demanding from their government in terms of policies. Many of them love Thaksin, hail him as a hero who brought them real benefits they had longed for, and thus will vote for the PPP in the coming election. Being the first populist politician who was the first to make policies a platform in elections in the history of Thailand, Thaksin has transformed Thai politics in such a way that it has become more issue-oriented than ever before.

A local vendor coffee maker sums it all: "Thaksin is better than others. Just like all politicians, he is corrupt. The difference is that he delivers policies."

I am not a supporter of Thaksin. I am aware of his ills and sometimes bad rationale and implementation of various populist policies he put forward (but hey, how many beneficial "populist" policies have been given to the Thai upper and middle classes in the past? Surely a much longer list than those given to the poor by Thaksin). However, he has shown the lower classes of Thai society that they, too, can benefit from their elected government.

This is why it has been difficult for the junta to manage the political situation since September last year. Staging coup cannot solve political conflicts any more for Thai society has become too complex and the people have become aware of the real benefits they could get from their votes. By now, the junta must have found out that removing a popularly elected government is not as simple a task as it has been in the past.

What Thailand needs now to allow participatory democracy to flourish is an effective anti-corruption system that places checks on elected politicians, something the 1997 constitution failed to achieve under Thaksin's rule. Sadly, the new constitution has fixed the problem in the wrong area. Instead of strengthening and ensuring the independence of the anti-corruption bodies, the new constitution fixes the problem by discouraging strong government and encouraging weak coalition government. The Thai elites were stupid enough to bring Thailand back to old days of weak coalition government with its major problem being its inability to deliver any meaningful policies to the people.

That said, I try to maintain my optimistic attitude about the long-term future of Thai politics. I hope that it won't be too long when the growing power of the mass balances out the power of the elites who have dominated Thai politics for way too long.