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Thai Talk
Analysis and comments on political and current affairs
Permalink : http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/ThaiTalk
Thursday , June 26 , 2008
Samak will win the vote but not the confidence
Posted by Yoon , Reader : 558 , 06:00:02  
Print


He took a big gamble by making a U-turn to allow the opposition to grill him in a censure motion.

But as it turned out, Premier Samak Sundaravej might have miscalculated - badly.

Instead of what he claims to be a below-the-belt blow from the "street gang", he might get a double, fatal blow from within and without Parliament.

Samak might have thought that by agreeing, however reluctantly, to spar with his political rivals in the House, he could neutralise the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), whose month-long street rally has threatened to undermine both his premiership and the administration.

But the Democrats' verbal salvos in the House on Tuesday and yesterday against Samak's four-month-old rule could prove to be much more devastating than the PAD's harsh rhetoric. The two-pronged attack will paralyse Samak politically. His departure is a question of when, not if.

The first day's debate over the questionable circumstances surrounding the Thai government's hasty and murky decision to offer "active support" to Cambodia's move to inscribe the Preah Vihear Temple on the World Heritage List was more than just the normal filibustering by opposition politicians.

Samak and Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama were apparently put on the defensive. The Democrat MPs were spurred on by an eloquent and hard-hitting juggernaut of an attack by leader of the opposition Abhisit Vejjajiva. He managed to lure Samak into swallowing the bait by raising the issue of national betrayal and political debts.

Abhisit knew exactly where to hit Samak to elicit the most emotional reaction. For it is now - when the old injured lion is attacked, during this the most vulnerable part of his political life - that he will react most ferociously, and therefore most irrationally.

Abhisit, towards the end of his 165-minute opening onslaught, plunged the sword into Samak and twisted it to ensure the greatest damage and pain:

"Mr Prime Minister, if you now decide to betray the former premier [Thaksin Shinawatra] by only half of what you did to M.R. Seni Pramoj [former leader of the Democrat Party], the country would certainly stand to benefit tremendously…."

Abhisit on the first day of the debate

That did it. Samak became apoplectic. Of course, he knew that Abhisit was trying to indicate that he had betrayed the man who had played a major role in giving birth to his political life.

Of course, he knew the opposition leader was accusing him of spending the first four months in office as premier trying to repay political debts to ex-premier Thaksin.

Those in the know, of course, were reminded once again that Samak had made a name for himself as a promising politician when he was recruited into the Democrat Party under M.R. Seni's leadership. And those who follow history also know that M.R. Seni was the chief legal adviser on the Thai side defending the Preah Vihear sovereignty case against Cambodia 46 years ago - an issue that is now pitting Samak against the party of one of his great benefactors.

"Let me make it clear right here in the House: I don't owe former prime minister Thaksin any political debt. In fact, it's the other way round. Thaksin has to repay a political debt to me," Samak shouted.

Samak didn't elaborate on how Thaksin now owes him a debt. But that statement alone was enough to bring smiles to suspicious minds.

Perhaps, the two aren't quite sure who's done whom a favour in this increasingly complicated and convoluted political game.

The Democrats, however, failed to follow up on that counter-attack, hoping perhaps to pick up more ammunition for future battles that are certain to happen in due course.

Samak won't leave the 35-hour no-confidence debate in the House unscathed. He won't get any credit for agreeing at the last minute to let the opposition grill him - since it was seen as an anti-PAD ploy, making virtue out of political necessity.

The wounds inflicted on him by the opposition are deep and serious and the "street gang" - as he calls the PAD protestors - won't give up their marathon rally just because the prime minister has decided to play his House card.

The coalition partners in his government may be compelled by political expedience to vote for him for their very survival. But the political injuries won't heal easily.

Samak may have won the vote in the House but he has lost the confidence. He may have won the battle but all indications are that he will lose the war.


Read comment

comment 39
DKO date : 01/07/2008 time : 14.34
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/DKO

Thanks for the further clarification Ian I see what you mean.

In the situation you mention there was no obvious lesser of two evils.

I can now see that your other comments are valid also.

The winning individual may not be too worried at first by non votes just relieved to win, but I admit the hierarchy of the party would take note as would the winning MP in the cold light of day because not doing so, may reverse fortunes at the next election.

I was being too immediate term and localised in my thinking.

Dave
comment 38
Ian date : 30/06/2008 time : 17.10
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

DKO, in a true democracy a non vote is counted, as is the turnout, and again in a true democracy gives the winning party an indication of how strong or weak their mandate is to rule.
If their mandate is weak then again in a true democracy they will be careful how they use such mandate.
Thailand of course is not a true democracy but if I remember correctly a winning candidate required a minimum of 30% even if unapposed. So a non vote can be effective if there are enough of them.

With regards to England I liked the Labour party domestic policy but not their international one, with the Conservatives my position was reversed, so I faced an impass which the Liberals did not resolve:-)
comment 37
DKO date : 30/06/2008 time : 15.36
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/DKO

Thanks Ian,

I would like to draw your attention to my para where I did say "A non vote can be legitimate but often it is laziness or a cop out. Very few people can honestly say they do not have a preference or a worry about particular parties contesting General Elections."

The situation you describe is of course a considered one and one such reason for not voting and more importantly you were exercising your right not to vote.

I have read your interesting piece you gave the link for.

I would like to suggest that EVEN if no party represented more than 50% of what you believed in, would that 50% party not be better than a party sharing only 30% percent of your beliefs or one sharing none of your beliefs. If you do not vote the greater of two evils as far as your views and interests are concerned MAY be elected because of those who did vote and voted for parties less suitable for you.

Is this not a valid view point as to why every vote is important, and why a non vote is not USUALLY the best option in reality "Lesser of two evils" (as I said before).

I also think that a non vote is not usually noted by or thought much of, if at all, by most unless in massive proportions. Even then, and even if a win is by one vote in a small turnout, all the the victor usually cares about is that he/she was elected - would you not agree?.

Just MHO
comment 36
Ian date : 29/06/2008 time : 20.27
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

DKO, at the time of the last general election in the UK I decided not to vote, this was not the random decision you think, a spoilt vote or non vote does have a meaning, it is not just apathy.
Please check this blog of mine in the following website http://uk2005.notapathetic.com//comments/1074
it will save me a lot of extra writing here:-) And you might even find it entertaining as an example of how British people discuss a topic with heat but not rancour.
comment 35
DKO date : 29/06/2008 time : 10.31
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/DKO

Ian C29,

Extract: ..If I was a Thai citizen and thus had a vote, I would not give it to any of the present parties"

Cannot agree with you on this one Ian. A democratic vote is a very important right and responsibility.

Very few people in ANY country can say that ANY party matches all their beliefs or even many of their beliefs at times BUT I think it fair to say that ALWAYS there is a party that nearer reflects one views or is not as opposed as greatly to ones beliefs.

Consequently it is logical, correct and best that a person votes for whom they feel best suits them and their country.

If you do not vote then the more determined who DO vote may actually get a Government that the apathetic majority feel is the greater of two evils (I use "evils" loosely) and more damage may be done than was necessary due to them not voting. The non voters would have to accept part responsibility in that happening.

A non vote can be legitimate but often it is laziness or a cop out. Very few people can honestly say they do not have a preference or a worry about particular parties contesting General Elections.

If they do not vote then I feel they are unjustified in carping about the outcome of the General Election (be it who is in power or opposition) and beyond until the next GE.
comment 34
peacefulness date : 29/06/2008 time : 09.01
nationmultimedia.com

Khun Piset--The problem is that we have quite a number of guys in this nation-blog are

不学无术,暗于大理 having neither knowledge nor skill, ignorant and incompetent. tks
comment 33
peacefulness date : 29/06/2008 time : 08.58
nationmultimedia.com

Khun Piset--The problem is that we have quite a number of guys in this nation-blog are

不学无术,暗于大理 having neither knowledge nor skill, ig
comment 32
peacefulness date : 29/06/2008 time : 08.33
nationmultimedia.com

Khun Piset--The problem is that we have quite a number of guys in this nation-blog are

不学无术,暗于大理 having neither knowledge nor skill.
comment 31
Piset date : 29/06/2008 time : 00.56
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/mahwatthai
Piset

Ian:

I have just finished a long busy training and travelling engagement which ended yesterday. A new one will start tomorrow.

Perhaps, it just so happened that, some idea came to me. I generally would put up a number of them each time and then would lapse for several days.

With your familiarity of my writing, I am sure you would detect any ghost writers in one second.
comment 30
Piset date : 29/06/2008 time : 00.52
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/mahwatthai
Piset

Ian:

I will accept your explanation for the time being. However, my own impression of your position was also a very impartial overall memories of your postings.
comment 29
Ian date : 28/06/2008 time : 23.53
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Piset, I am very puzzled by you, I am retired, you apparently are not, yet you churn out blogs and comments faster than anyone else in this group, do you have a secretary or ghost writer.
I did not answer your comment simply because I do not have the time to go trolling through all the previous blogs and comment, I just rely on my old man's memory.
As to being a supporter of Thaksin, I was a regular member of the protest marches in Lan Luang leading up to the coup. It was the coup I strongly oppose.
I don't particularly support the PPP either, yet neither do I support the Democrats, they are equally ineffectual. Again I oppose the PAD simply because I see them as destructive rather than constructive.
If I was a Thai citizen and thus had a vote, I would not give it to any of the present parties.
comment 28
Piset date : 28/06/2008 time : 22.11
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/mahwatthai
Piset

Peacefulness:

Thee were actually 4 kind of people mentioned by the ancient Chinese relating to what you mentioned as 对牛弹琴

It says this about people

兼听则明,偏听则庸

It means "It is wise to listen from many sources, it is foolish to listen only to few sources."

There are more about how people fooling themselves:

Observing the sky from inside an enclosed room is fooling oneself and trying to fool others.

Observing the sky through a pin hole is taking a very small source of information as being the entire sky.

Observing the sky from the bottom of the well is a view of the well dwelling frog.

Observing the sky from an open field, then you can see a lot more of it.
comment 27
Piset date : 28/06/2008 time : 21.53
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/mahwatthai
Piset

Ian:

Re: Your Comment 16.

First, you have not answer my question in Comment 15. I really like to see your answer to that.

Yes, I have heard you mentioning what you did in C16 a number of time, something like a brief trailer to only set a theme to go into your usual direction.

As a frequent follower of your writing, I must say you are a rather strong and stubhorn supporter of Thaksin Shinnawatra, judging from the tends of what you hve written. Actually, I don't mind that. I am sure you have gotten your own good reason for that.

Believe it or not, I have done a lot of hard searching to find positive and constructive things about TRT/PPP through out the past 6 years. All I could found on them were, were at best, propagandas, smoke screens, bait and switch schemes, etc. that has continually leading the national treasury deeper and deeper in indebtness and the rural deeper and deeper in their indebtness too. To the best of what I have tried to find and understand, I honestly could not find anything good for the people and the nation from TRT/PPP and Samak's government at all.

If you could, please show me some.
comment 26
wch date : 28/06/2008 time : 11.07

comment 4
Sulasno date : 26/06/2008 time : 13.01
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sulasno

wch, you studied Economics when you were in College or U? Heard of the K Theory?
Theories are just theories; real life is real life;

throw away your textbooks and do a real life analysis.

COMMENTS
I like to FORWARD to Tawan's blog. She needs this, not me.

Anyhow, K-theory in economics ?
If is, please teach me.
wch
comment 25
peacefulness date : 28/06/2008 time : 10.06
nationmultimedia.com

c23
may be you are the one who 对牛弹琴 plays the music to the buffalo (long pleng hai kwai fung) , hahahaha funny.
comment 24
peacefulness date : 28/06/2008 time : 10.03
nationmultimedia.com

c23 may u r the one who

对牛弹琴 Playing the music to the buffalo. (long pleng hai kwai fung) hahahahahaha........funny
comment 23
Sulasno date : 28/06/2008 time : 08.10
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sulasno

when did more frogs appear here?

there's a Thai saying;

"playing music to a buffalo"
comment 22
Ian date : 28/06/2008 time : 06.35
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

PoNg, the answer to your questions, is there is no way, you just have to use your memory:-)

Expresso, I am not sure where you are coming from, the idea of Lalida being my other half is just too, too funny.
Lalida and I have fought upon just about every issue you could name, we finally managed a truce. The fact that we both share fairly similar views on the political situation is simply coincidence.
One thing I do know is that she will give as good as she gets, if you are abusive to her she will return it.
I try not to be abusive it is not my natural style, Lalida was one of the few people that pushed me too far in the past and now Piset is getting close, I find brick walls and abusive terminology offensive. I have no sympathy for either Dalmasian or Sulasno the way they are currently debating, however in fairness to Sulasno I think it was Dalmasian that first descended to the gutter.
As for Yoon, I have a grudging respect for him, he stays away from all this pettiness.
comment 21
Lalida date : 28/06/2008 time : 04.39
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Real

Expresso,

Reading the comments of yours has already told me how much you know about the Bloggers in this Blog site, if you do not know or understand anything, do keep quiet or seek silent answer in a corner, stop making a fool of yourself in the public.
comment 20
Lalida date : 28/06/2008 time : 04.36
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Real

Ian C12,

Don't be too sure, he just might be waiting for a chance or an excuse to kick us out...
comment 19
expresso date : 28/06/2008 time : 02.37

Ian,

I don't think Piset is emotional though he may have used strong words. On the other hand, your other half is too emotional, always pound on the table and you come to post in tandem to defend directly or indirectly.

My query is that why Lalida is not banned? She has gained inches but continually wants to gain foots. Btw, I think that is a Chinese motto.
comment 18
Dalmasian date : 28/06/2008 time : 01.48
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/dalmasian

This is a fine example of a fair, unbiasd and factual information on the debates. Exactly the way we saw them on TV and in ASTV broadcasts.

Unlike the false accusations without proofs that the gang of paid Thugsin lackeys keep repeating in every blog! To hell with all of you Thugsin sympathizers! You all have no shame for lying all day long. lies, lies and more lies, as always. How can the country improve when there are so many liars walking around?

By the way, wch the watcher! Welcome back to these blogs. We had sparred many time before the Nation switch their blog to this newer format, several years back. Remember the subject of doing business with Burma?

Please, write your comments in a way that ordinary people like me who are not very well educated and not very sophisticated can understand.

Thank you. Arigato gosaimas. Hsieh Hsieh. Gracias. Salamat Po. Kob Khun. Etc.

-- Dalmasian
comment 17
PoNg date : 27/06/2008 time : 22.58
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/jaratpon

Hi Ian, and thanks for your welcome. I am the guy in the picture. The lady is my wife.

BTW, I hope someone could guide me about how to efficiently use this blogging website.
1. How do you keep track of all the messages that you have posted?
2. How do you know if someone has replied to your post and is expecting your reply?

Thanks!
comment 16
Ian date : 27/06/2008 time : 22.26
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

PoNg, as your picture is male and female I don't know which is you:-) But welcome and congratulation on both your excellent English and clarity of thought.

Piset, I have always supported fair play and logical argument. I am not a supporter of Thaksin or come to that Samak, but neither do I support the Democrats or the PAD. I try to stay an impartial critic. You on the other hand can only see one side and are too emotional.
comment 15
Piset date : 27/06/2008 time : 21.43
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/mahwatthai
Piset

Ian:

I will accept your claim that you are neither deaf nor blind, if you can point out any criticism of NBT by any of those people I mentined in this Nation Weblog.

As mentioned before, the ancient Chinese said that, "Things and Persons with similar characters tend to join, gather and blend together." What surprised me was not the others, but you.
comment 14
PoNg date : 27/06/2008 time : 21.27
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/jaratpon

Opps! As i said its my first time, i thought that attaching pictures would mean the small little avarta on the right. Didnt know it will end up as a big picture in the center. So sorry...does anyone know how to remove it?
comment 13
PoNg date : 27/06/2008 time : 21.24
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/jaratpon


This is my first time posting. I personally do not agree with Yoon. Having followed the debate, I have come to admire Mr.Noppadon Pattama.

I must admit that I first heard of the allegations from Mr. Abhisit I was deeply convinced that the government has caused Thailand to loose Preah Vihear Temple. The opposition party spent 7 hours repeating the same allegations over and over again. But as I am a firm believer that one sided stories is never fair, I forced myself to continue listening until Mr.Noppadon could have a chance to explain his actions. I found that his speech was clear and very much justified his actions. Indeed we are sad that we lost Preah Vihear Temple, but feelings alone cannot be used to govern this country.

As for the other issues with the most of the other ministers, I felt that they were just a setup to cause negative feelings among the general.

One person that I felt has not done a good job is Mr.Mingkwan, but I am still sympathetic towards him as I feel he is sincere. Although he lack much experience, I still trust that he can make a comeback.

Finally, Mr.Chalerm wins the most confident from viewers in my opinion, as he has managed to turn most allegations against him back to speakers with clear explanation. (Except for the last part about the guy in the picture sitting. That part was pretty unclear and the evidence was pretty much against him.)
comment 12
Ian date : 27/06/2008 time : 18.31
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Well it's his paper and website, be thankfull he allows you to criticise him. I suspects he treats our comments as flea bites, irritating but not worth dealing with:-)
comment 11
Lalida date : 27/06/2008 time : 13.59
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Real

Now, you guys know why K.Piset Blogs are never deleted or Banned. The political comment of Yoon is only one sided as same as he treat the Bloggers.
comment 10
Sulasno date : 27/06/2008 time : 07.05
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sulasno

Ian, it is obvious;
the true will prevail in the end
comment 9
Ian date : 26/06/2008 time : 23.06
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Piset, you wrote, "I noticed that none of those accusing the Nation of being biased have ever said anything about the governmental media or Thai dailies being biased. "
It seems you are blind as well as deaf
comment 8
Piset date : 26/06/2008 time : 21.45
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/mahwatthai
Piset

Khun Yoon:

Thank you for your factual information. I noticed that none of those accusing the Nation of being biased have ever said anything about the governmental media or Thai dailies being biased. This in itself is reflecting the biases of those who are writing protests to you.

Another rather interesting about what you have written is that, those coalition partners' votes of confidence for Samak did not reflect their confidence in Samak, but rather reflected their own fear of a House dissolution by Samak.

This kind of voting can be linked to the general elections when a lot of votes for the people's representatives were actually the viotes for the peace and safety of one's own family from the local mobs rather than the trusts in those politicians.
comment 7
Ian date : 26/06/2008 time : 20.50
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

My problem now I am back in England the Nation and Yoon are so biased it is difficult to get at the truth, if it even exists:-)
comment 6
peacefulness date : 26/06/2008 time : 18.18
nationmultimedia.com

Samak of course will win the Censure Debate from within " the mosquito net" but the government of the Thugs will collapse soon like "kuan taek" (broken dam). tks
comment 5
MakubeX date : 26/06/2008 time : 14.45
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/babylon

"Samak did to Seni what Seni had done to Pridi"

...and so it'd only be fair if X did to Samak what Samak had done to Seni.
comment 4
Sulasno date : 26/06/2008 time : 13.01
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sulasno

wch, you studied Economics when you were in College or U? Heard of the K Theory?
Theories are jusr theories; real life is real life;

throw away your textbooks and do a real life analysis
comment 3
Lalida date : 26/06/2008 time : 12.17
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Real

Yoon,

If not a majority, I'm sure there's a minority of bloggers that watch the debate. I'm surprise you can come up with a Blog like this. You make me smile.
comment 2
MaxHeadroom date : 26/06/2008 time : 09.47
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/maxheadroom

Samak did to Seni what Seni had done to Pridi. Any surprises there? It's in line with good old party tradition.
comment 1
wch date : 26/06/2008 time : 08.35

Let me say just a thing, then you may understand what Samak people are.

GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)

An opposite " Do you write new textbook ? Are you going to tutor us with it ?"

This formula, everyone's wit but the so-called, finance minister does not understand it.

This medical doctor tries to treat the opposite debaters as his patients. However his, real patients are out there,
63 million people.
And now 100,000 are dying slowly because of no food.
However, 15,000 million baht cash coupons are ready to 'Upagara' (election patron of provinces).

PTT group of companies cheats the balance sheet.
They just reveal merely 100,000million profit, 6.5% of their capital and they perjured that PTT got less profit than Malaysian oil agency.
The opposites must today check again, how much PTT hid in the sheet as, CAPITAL INVESTMENT RESERVES, and PROFIT WITHHOLDING as CONTINGENCY.
They did hide 90,000 million baht into such dubious accounts.
Also the opposite must check what dividend rates of last year and this year first half, for 'private stock holders' (if it is 25 % net profit or 6.5% net profit) and how much the state stockholder (53% by the finance ministry) was dividended.

The most important pillar is ALREADY demolished.
The piece of castle praviharn land is merely a piecemeal chewing gum for a dog.
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