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Thai Talk
Analysis and comments on political and current affairs
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Thursday , April 17 , 2008
A Samak-Thaksin divide? PM's outbursts give ample hints
Posted by Yoon , Reader : 274 , 06:44:31  
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You don't have to be a veteran political pundit to detect from PM Samak Sundaravej's latest Sunday TV show that his sense of insecurity is probably getting out of control.

He has become the genie that refuses to go back in the bottle.

Publicly, Samak was hitting out at all newspaper columnists for spreading the story that ex-premier, Thaksin Shinawatra was overshadowing him in all public appearances.

Privately - and he would undoubtedly deny it outright - Samak is shaken by Thaksin's various public moves to upstage him. Samak's latest live-telecast outburst was not aimed so much at the press, but an indirect rebuttal against the growing public impression that he was nothing but a "figurehead" who can be removed at any time once the "real party's owner" so decides.

Is there a conflict between the man and his surrogate? Is that speculation about a Samak-Thaksin split really coming to a head?

The real answer may lie in another question: Why is it that Thaksin hasn't visited Samak to seek the traditional Songkran blessings? Or, to make it more politically correct, vice versa? 

You may argue that Thaksin and his nominee have deliberately tried to avoid any public reunion. But several inside sources have suggested that the two haven't had any contact, official, or otherwise, since Thaksin returned home.


That, to put it mildly, is too curious to be true. Samak made the "unrefined" move on television by reading, word for word, a Thai Rath column that portrayed him as a hopeless ineffective chief executive - with the conclusion that Thaksin would fare better in all ways.

In a telltale sign that he was no more Thaksin's "nominee," Samak lashed out: "I AM in charge. You say he may be making a comeback. Just tell me how? How can he make it back to power? He is back in the country only to fight court cases…"   

Not only ago, he had asked Samak to serve as his political substitute to revive the party, under a new name.

Now, if you could read Samak's depressed mind through his trembling lips, it would be unfair for him to reclaim the seat so soon. Reading between the lines, one can sense Samak's desperate argument that he had after all led the People Power Party to an impressive electoral victory, thereby vindicating Thaksin to a great extent.

Of course, it would not be unusual for Samak to feel that he is entitled to enjoy being in the limelight at least for a while longer. Now, Thaksin and some of his close aides in the Cabinet seem to have given Samak short shrift only three months after the election. The critical remarks by PPP spokesman Kuthep Saikrajang against Samak are only one example of such a move to discredit the premier just as Thaksin is busy making public charity appearances in an obvious "rebranding" campaign.  

Samak of course has every right to feel betrayed. He had after all risked his own political reputation to undertake the "nominee's role" for Thaksin.

His was nothing less than a political "suicide bombing" mission to save Thaksin from total demise.

And now, Thaksin, deliberately or otherwise, is upstaging him in every possible forum.

Samak may even be compelled to think this is the case of "killing the general after the war has been won".   

But Thaksin doesn't necessarily share Samak's assessment in this regard. He might have come to the conclusion that the war had not been won because of Samak.

It's Thaksin's grass-roots popularity and mammoth financial machine, with Samak serving only as a "nominal head", that won the day. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if some of Thaksin's close aides are already telling their boss that the "nominee" is doing everything possible, short of a public "declaration of independence", to block Thaksin's return to power.

Samak was never expected to be an "obedient surrogate" in the first place. But then, he wasn't supposed to break out of the populist mould.

He hasn't refused to toe the line outright. Yet, he has failed to live up to the minimum requirement of carrying the "Thaksin torch".

Most importantly, perhaps, Samak was not expected to show his discomfort of being a die-hard "nominee". The understanding was that he would be more than happy to assume that role - and was supposed to, at least publicly, demonstrate that he would enjoy playing the role.

The moment he attempted to be "my own man", Samak could begin his countdown to permanent retirement.

He has yet to learn the lesson that one can't be an effective nominal prime minister and a proud self-made politician at the same time.   


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comment 3
Hermano_Lobo date : 17/04/2008 time : 21.08
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/yurivelasquez

I can forsee a situation where Thaksin gains in power and influence. Ready to take control again.

Samak will ally himself with the military.

There will be a surreptitious coup organised by certain Generals. Samak will retain power.

Most people will be more concerned with the price of rice rather than Thai 'political manoeuvres in the dark'
comment 2
Obeyno1kinobe date : 17/04/2008 time : 12.51
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/obeyno1

PMSamak may have a bit of time on his side.
Mr T is banned from politics for 4 more years. This would need to be overuled b4 Mr T could take back the big seat.
Also, expect he might wait for the other court cases to be ressolved b4 stirring up too much more resistance.

But then again, the Mr T's PPP cronies may push PMS out sooner.

Or the whole coalition may collapse if the parties are dissolved for election fraud.

But interesting how Mittel meeting Mr T was in the news and not meeting govt officials.
comment 1
wch date : 17/04/2008 time : 09.55

S,mark needs "status quo ".

Thaksin needs "Change" badly, like the desperate cat in rice sack,
He will do "anything", if he is free from jail and recovering his money, (even half of it lost), If get the old seat, better !.

Jail term will end his life, the worst thing than death. He is backed by water, not an inch to step back. All or nothing, Ao pen Ao ttie.

He must shake up here and there. Miltary seems not to move, then who, it is anyone's guess.

Mekhong alliance cannot form a political group that work effectively to offset PAD, who came out with their own Pinto - rice with some salty fish.
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