Information on Swine Flu

This blog contains reliable information on Swine Flu for the general public
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Tuesday , October 6 , 2009

How many people will die from swine flu ?

Posted by DoctorSwineFlu , Reader : 829 , 07:43:55

How dangerous is the swine flu today? WHO, NHS, CDC and the Ministry of Public Health of Thailand all agree that, for most healthy persons who are not in the high-risk groups, swine flu is fairly mild, similar to the seasonal flu. Over 90% of the infected persons recover without medical treatment. However, hospitalizations and deaths from infection with this virus have occurred, particularly among the high-risk groups. However, swine flu is much more contagious than seasonal flu, which means that many, many more people will get swine flu. WHO has declared that the spread of the swine flu is a pandemic. Let see what WHO has to say about pandemic in general. WHO says that during a pandemic, even under the best circumstances, assuming that the new virus causes mild disease, the world could still experience an estimated 2 million to 7.4 million deaths (projected from data obtained during the 1957 pandemic). This is about 30 -110 deaths per 100,000 for the entire population. The Obama's official advisory group on Science predicts that 1.8 million persons in the US will be hospitalised due to swine flu, resulting in 30,000 - 90,000 deaths. An independent group of researchers - from Washington Hospital Center and other medical organizations - estimates that, in the US, 46 million people ( 15 % of the entire US population) will contract the infection, resulting in 2.7 million ( 6 % of the infected persons) severe cases, and nearly 200,000 deaths ( 440 per 100,000 of the infected persons, or 65 per 100,000 of the entire US population). The MOH of Thailand says that it expects that mortality from swine flu is slightly higher than from seasonal flu. The MOH predicts that the number of infection will be 3 - 15 million ( 5 - 23 % of the Thai population), the number of severe cases will be 30,000 - 130,000 ( 1 per 100,000 of the infected cases)and the number of death will be 1,200 ( 8 - 40 per 100 000 of the infected cases or 1.8 per 100,000 of the entire Thai population) - rather low, don't you think? In analysing these forecasts, one point stands out very clearly; either the worst is yet to come, or the experts are quite wrong. In short, swine flu, in its present form, is fairly mild for most people, with the exception of people in the high-risk groups; for them, it is serious. The trouble is that the number of people in the high-risk groupos is quite large. How swine flu mutates An influenza virus mutates very easily. There are 2 ways a flu virus mutates. One is self-mutation, in which the virus mutates all by itself while it is in the body of a host, say human. Another is cross-mutation, in which the virus swops genes with another influenza virus; for this to occurs, both viruses have to be in the host body at the same time. What is the possibility of the swine flu mutating into something more dangerous? The possibility of self-mutation is obviously higher than that of cross-mutation; for cross-mutation to take place, the two different viruses have to be alive and in the host body at the same time. Virologists says that the only thing predictable about influenza is its unpredictability. Alan Hay, the director of WHO's World Influenza Centre, says that "influenza viruses can change quite suddenly. And there's no reason another, more dangerous virus couldn't emerge with pandemic potential. " Hay commented further that if the swine flu virus were to swap genes with another influenza virus, possibly avian flu (through, for example, a patient who contracts the two illnesses simultaneously), a new, more lethal pandemic strain could emerge with a high rate of contagion. "I would say that is an unlikely scenario," Hay says. "But the point is you don't know what's going to happen. You have to remain alert to all possibilities." In short, no experts will say rightout what the possibility is, simply because they do not know. But the experts admit that they cannot afford to be complacent and are keeping a close watch on the situation. How dangerous will the mutated swine flu be? Again, the experts all say that they do not know. The WHO writes in its website that in a pandemic, even if the new virus is mild, it can cause 2 - 7 million deaths. Projection for a more virulent virus is much higher; WHO will not give an estimate, but comments that, in the USA, the mortality rate for the 1918 influenza virus (which is exceptional) was around 2.5% or 2,500 per 100,000. WHO further warns that "the world is ill-prepared to defend itself during a pandemic." No wonder the WHO is keeping a close watch on the progress of swine flu. So the answer to the question is.. The experts have no idea. But if it is something like the worst flu pandemic the world has faced, which was in 1918, about 75 million people may die; the corresponding figure for Thailand would be about 700,000. And the extreme, though unlikely case, it can wipe out a third of the world. Postscript The Thai Ministry of Public Health estimates that, if swine flu mutates into a more virulent form, the number of infected persons may be as large as 6 - 26 million (10% - 40% of the entire population); and the number of deaths may be large. Sources: WHO (World Health Organization), CDC (Centre for Disease Control and Prevention of the USA), NHS (National Health Service of the UK), the Thai Ministry of Public Health, and TIME magazine.

How dangerous is the swine flu today?

WHO, NHS, CDC and the Ministry of Public Health of Thailand all agree that, for most healthy persons who are not in the high-risk groups, swine flu is fairly mild, similar to the seasonal flu. Over 90% of the infected persons recover without medical treatment. However, hospitalizations and deaths from infection with this virus have occurred, particularly among the high-risk groups.

However, swine flu is much more contagious than seasonal flu, which means that many, many more people will get swine flu.

WHO has declared that the spread of the swine flu is a pandemic. Let see what WHO has to say about pandemic in general. WHO says that during a pandemic, even under the best circumstances, assuming that the new virus causes mild disease, the world could still experience an estimated 2 million to 7.4 million deaths (projected from data obtained during the 1957 pandemic). This is about 30 -110 deaths per 100,000 for the entire population.

The Obama's official advisory group on Science predicts that 1.8 million persons in the US will be hospitalised due to swine flu, resulting in 30,000 - 90,000 deaths. An independent group of researchers - from Washington Hospital Center and other medical organizations - estimates that, in the US, 46 million people ( 15 % of the entire US population) will contract the infection, resulting in 2.7 million ( 6 % of the infected persons) severe cases, and nearly 200,000 deaths ( 440 per 100,000 of the infected persons, or 65 per 100,000 of the entire US population).

The MOH of Thailand says that it expects that mortality from swine flu is slightly higher than from seasonal flu. The MOH predicts that the number of infection will be 3 - 15 million ( 5 - 23 % of the Thai population), the number of severe cases will be 30,000 - 130,000 ( 1 per 100,000 of the infected cases)and the number of death will be 1,200 ( 8 - 40 per 100 000 of the infected cases or 1.8 per 100,000 of the entire Thai population) - rather low, don't you think?

In analysing these forecasts, one point stands out very clearly; either the worst is yet to come, or the experts are quite wrong.

In short, swine flu, in its present form, is fairly mild for most people, with the exception of people in the high-risk groups; for them, it is serious. The trouble is that the number of people in the high-risk groupos is quite large.

How swine flu mutates

An influenza virus mutates very easily.

There are 2 ways a flu virus mutates.

One is self-mutation, in which the virus mutates all by itself while it is in the body of a host, say human.

Another is cross-mutation, in which the virus swops genes with another influenza virus; for this to occurs, both viruses have to be in the host body at the same time.

What is the possibility of the swine flu mutating into something more dangerous?

The possibility of self-mutation is obviously higher than that of cross-mutation; for cross-mutation to take place, the two different viruses have to be alive and in the host body at the same time.

Virologists says that the only thing predictable about influenza is its unpredictability.

Alan Hay, the director of WHO's World Influenza Centre, says that "influenza viruses can change quite suddenly. And there's no reason another, more dangerous virus couldn't emerge with pandemic potential. " Hay commented further that if the swine flu virus were to swap genes with another influenza virus, possibly avian flu (through, for example, a patient who contracts the two illnesses simultaneously), a new, more lethal pandemic strain could emerge with a high rate of contagion. "I would say that is an unlikely scenario," Hay says. "But the point is you don't know what's going to happen. You have to remain alert to all possibilities."

In short, no experts will say rightout what the possibility is, simply because they do not know. But the experts admit that they cannot afford to be complacent and are keeping a close watch on the situation.

How dangerous will the mutated swine flu be?

Again, the experts all say that they do not know.

The WHO writes in its website that in a pandemic, even if the new virus is mild, it can cause 2 - 7 million deaths. Projection for a more virulent virus is much higher; WHO will not give an estimate, but comments that, in the USA, the mortality rate for the 1918 influenza virus (which is exceptional) was around 2.5% or 2,500 per 100,000.

WHO further warns that "the world is ill-prepared to defend itself during a pandemic."

No wonder the WHO is keeping a close watch on the progress of swine flu.

So the answer to the question is..

The experts have no idea.

But if it is something like the worst flu pandemic the world has faced, which was in 1918, about 75 million people may die; the corresponding figure for Thailand would be about 700,000.

And the extreme, though unlikely case, it can wipe out a third of the world.

Postscript

The Thai Ministry of Public Health estimates that, if swine flu mutates into a more virulent form, the number of infected persons may be as large as 6 - 26 million (10% - 40% of the entire population); and the number of deaths may be large.

Sources: WHO (World Health Organization), CDC (Centre for Disease Control and Prevention of the USA), NHS (National Health Service of the UK), the Thai Ministry of Public Health, and TIME magazine.

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