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12:05 PM: Hello, Khun Tulsathit. And hi, everybody, I am Thanong Khanthong. I am with you now. During the course of this long day, I shall be with you to constantly inform you and provide up-to-date news about the historic referendum today.

Phaethongtharn Shinawatra, the youngest daughter of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, went to vote this morning. Her uncle Bhanaphot Damapong accompanied her. All the other Shinwatra family members are staying in London now.

Guess what was the colour of Ung-ing's dress?

It was not a red (red is the symbolic colour of "say no campaign" to the draft charter). Well, Ung-ing wore her black dress, with her dark sun-glasses.

When asked about her Daddy, she simply replied curtly: "He misses home very much."

Other top people also cast their referendum in the early morning. Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, the president of the Privy Council, travelled to the Dusit District to vote. Again, he looked very calm, wearing his grey traditional Thai jacket.

He said Thailand will return to political peace after this national referendum as the Thais will extend forgiveness to each other.

Ummm...Thaksin's supporters hurled bricks and wood into Gen Prem's home in Thaves a couple of weeks ago, a dramatic event that really undermined the cause of those who campaigned against the constitutional draft.

Thaksin has been overheard as saying that he could forgive anybody in Thailand, except Gen Prem.

But now Gen Prem has signalled national reconciliation, to which we all should agree so that the country can move forward with the impending general election in December this year.

Gen Surayud Chulnanont, the prime minister, has also cast his vote. He would not predict of the referendum today. He simply said the passage of the constitution draft would help resolve the problems of the country. So far he had not overheard any disruptions to the referendum.

At 4:00 PM, Surayud would appear on TV Channel 11 to address the Thai people following the official end of the referendum.

Banharn Silapa-archa of the Chat Thai Party was rather mad today upon learning of the dirty tactic to disrupt the referendum with all kinds of disinformation, foul play and leaflets.

In the Northeast, for instance, the Isaan people were told that they should not vote for the referendum because the new constitution would take away the Bt30 universal healthcare programme that they were enjoying.

"This practice is bad and evil. It is pure evil," Banharn said.

Banharn predicted that about 50 per cent of all the voters who actually cast their votes today support the new constitution, as opposed to "nay votes" of 20 per cent.

Well, you know, Banharn is looking forward to a return of glory of his medium-sized party. He ie eyeing for some 50 MPs seat. This would make him ideal to join the new coalition government to be formed after the election.

 After casting his vote Abhisit Vejjajiva, the leader of the Democrat, also urge the people to come out and vote in order to set the direction for the country.

Some 45 million Thais are eligible to vote today. If more than 50 per cent of them show up to the voting booths, then the Apichart Sukhakkanond, the head of Election Commission, considers it a success.

There are 8,800 voting booths nationwide. Authorities have despatched more than one million officials, including police and military officers, to make sure that the referendum proceeds smoothly.

The Election Commission expects that the results should be known by around 8:00 or 9:00 PM today. So stay tuned!

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The views from abroad

12:45 PM: Hello, I am Thanong and I am back with you again.

What are the views of the analysts of the securities brokerage houses about the Thai referendum? It is unanimous that the people in the securities industry would like the draft charter to pass the referendum. For this would an end to all the uncertainties and bring Thailand back to political normalcy.

The analysts all expect that the vote will be in favour of the charter. The DBS Research (August 17, 2007) reported:

"On Sunday, 19 Aug, exactly 11 months after the army seized power in a military coup, Thailand will hold a national referendum on its draft constitution. While the
majority of Thais are expected to vote in favour of the charter, this is mostly to clear the way for democratic general elections promised before year-end as well as to see
as quick an end as possible to military rule.

"Therefore, it is highly likely that the referendum passes peacefully and successfully. This doesn’t mean there are no risks, however.

"If voter turnout is disappointing (less than 50%), this is likely to be interepreted as a lack of support for the army and the coup itself. That would be a big blow for the junta and would divide the nation yet again. Violence also is a risk, albeit small.

"At the same time, General Sonthi has indicated that the junta would adopt the 1997 consitution if the people reject the new constitution. Therefore, it is fair to say that after this referendum, we will be a step closer to peace and normalcy in Thailand."

Another broker CIMB has also expressed its buoyant view with the referendum. Its report (August 17, 2007) also believes that the charter will be passed because the alternative draft is not attract and because the Thais would like the political situation to return to normal as soon as possible.

Here is CIMB's report:

"The referendum on the new constitution will take place this coming Sunday (19 Aug) and we strongly believe the draft would be endorsed by the Thais, providing a potential catalyst for the market. The government is also likely to fix an election date soon, which would provide the market with more good news. It earlier indicated elections could be held either on 16 or 23 Dec 07.

"We believe the new constitution would receive the green light for two reasons.

"1. The alternative is not attractive. If the new constitution is voted down, the Council for National Security (CNS) can choose any prior constitution and make any amendments to it before applying for elections.

"Since we do not know what constitution they would choose and which articles they would amend, this alternative is not appealing at all. For instance, if the CNS were to choose a constitution that allows for a non-elected Prime Minister, chaos could ensue as Thais would find this unacceptable.

"2. Thais are plainly tired of the political stalemate, which has been going on for two years. They want elections as soon as possible, so that the country can return to normalcy. If the new constitution is voted down, there is a high risk that elections would be delayed and things could get worse."

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1.30 pm: It's Tulsathit here. Thanks Thanong for the latest views and development. On my way to the office, I passed a few polling areas and it seemed things were less vibrant than normal election days.

Hope the turnout reaches the vicinity of 60 per cent, otherwise we can have another major political question on our hands: What does the "silent" populace want to convey? Surely, "No" vote advocates can point at the large number of "abstentions" _ the people who stayed home_ and interprete it as a virtual "No".

To me, if the turnout is low, the draft Constitution must pass with a convincing margin, or there will be a lot of serious political questions asked over here and abroad.

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Bridge Over Trouble Water

1:30 PM: Khun Tulsathit, I also went to vote this morning at Pipattana School, which is located in the same Soi Sukhumvit 64 of my home. I did not see a lot of people. The atmosphere was not exciting at all. It was like business as usual.

Of course, I voted Yes.

I feel that this referendum is not the same with the past general elections when there were more colours, political campaigns, issues and personalities. This time it is a "yes" and "no" vote. Then that's it.

The referendum is more like a bridge for us to cross over the democratic path. This reminds me of one of my favourite Simon & Garfenkel songs, "Bridge Over Trouble Water". I hope that this referendum can serve as a bridge to lead us over all the trouble overs.

If you ask me whether I like this 2007 constitution or not, then I would say that I am not really in a position to answer it. I am not an expert on constitutional issues. Yet so far we have about 17 constitutions and none of them seem to be perfect to all of us.

I listened to Sonthi Limthongkul's comment about the referendum this morning. And I do not agree with what he said at all.

Sonthi, who was one of the catalysts who brought down the Thaksin regime, said there were two main points in this referendum. First, if the draft charter is passed with a narrow margin, those who oppose it would say that it is not faily held. If the referendum is passed with a big margin, they still insist that there are lots of government intervention to influence the result.

Second, if one votes against the draft charter, that means he supports the return of the Thaksin regime.

Sonthi has been propagating this either/or view all along.

But a lot of people who have voiced their objection against the draft charter have also been campaigning against Thaksin before. To them, constitution is the country's supreme law so as a matter of principle it must be authored with broad-based people's participation without any hidden agenda to support the return of the military juanta.

Some of these anti-2007 draft charter have gone so far as to suggest that to accept this new constitution is to accept a coup as a way out for Thai politics.

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Is the 2007 draft charter democratic enough? 

2:00 PM: Khun Tulsathit, let me add further about the draft charter.

When we had the 1997 Constitution, most Thais believed that this would be the real thing for Thailand. It could not be more perfect because it had got inputs from millions of Thais. The process to draft the constitution was also very tedious, involving a myriads of top people in the Thai society.

At the heart of this 1997 Constitution lay a check and balance system. It also aimed at strengthening the executive branch to do away with weak coalition governments of the past, which was the source of political instability.

Then Thaksin came along. Through political mergers and acquisitions and his populist campaign to win over the heart and mind of the rural voters, he was able to build a very strong government, so strong that his administration held the other branches of government and all the independent institutions at bay.

He controlled 377 MPs out of 500. The 200 elected members of the Senate also needed the Thai Rak Thai's political base to win their seats. So we heard widespread news reports that several dozens members of the Senate were on a payroll of a big political party. The Opposition could not file a censure motion against the prime minister.

Thaksin went on to consolidate his power by paying off the populist policies to the rural voters in return and alienating the Thai elite and middle-class. I think this frustration over the divide and rule tactic and the lack of checks and balances were also a catalyst of the coup because the country seemed to be on its way of money-politic authoritarianism.

 Now the 2007 charter seeks to redress this problem of too much power of the executive branch in several ways.

The 2007 constitution sought to reverse these shortcomings in several ways. Let's read a comparative summary of the 2007 constitution draft of Phatra Securities' report issued last week.

1) The number of senators is reduced from 200 to 150. Of this 74 will appointed by a 7-person panel comprising 3 judges from the constitution, supreme and administrative courts; and heads 4 of independent agencies such as the election commission and the counter corruption commission.

The remaining senators will be elected from each of the 75 provinces and one from Bangkok. The senate retains its powers to appointed independent agencies, impeach politicians, delay legislation, provide oversight and vote on constitution amendments.

2) Easier censure of the executive branch. Previously, 200 members of parliament (MPs) are required to propose a no-confidence debate against the PM and 100 against a minister.

The 2007 constitution requires only 96 MPs for a censure debate against the PM and 80 MPs for a debate against ministers. Moreover, should the opposition MPs fail
to reach those numbers, over half of the actual number of opposition MPs can file for a censure debate against the PM after the executive branch has been in power for more than 2 years.

3) Scaling back big political parties. 400 single constituencies will become about 140 multiple constituencies (2-3 MPs per constituency) that in total elect 400 constituency MPs. This would allow the voter to
choose their second and third favorite candidate (non-TRT parties) as well as their favorite.

The result should be smaller large political parties and a greater number of smaller parties. The 100 party-list MPs (gained
from proportional voting) will be cut back to 80 MPs.

More crucially, the proportional vote will not be counted nationally but the country’s 76 provinces will be grouped into 8 distinct regions. This would prevent a highly popular national leader (read Thaksin) from winning most of
the party list votes and allow regional political leaders to share in the party list votes.

4) Direct participation by the people. Instead of 50,000 signatures of voting citizens needed to submit legislation under the 1997 constitution, the 2007 version would require only 10,000.

In the case of filing for impeachment (of MPs, senators, ministers, etc), the number of

petitioning signatures is also reduced from 50,000 to 20,000. However,
the need for substantive investigation and a final impeachment vote by 3/5 of the senate remains unchanged.

5) Policies for the people. The 2007 constitution is also full of policy prescriptions mandated for the benefit of the Thai people. First and foremost, the government must provide necessary and sufficient armed forces, weapons and modern technology for the protection of the monarchy, national sovereignty, Thailand’s democracy and for national
development.

Among others, it must also promote the sufficiency economy; fiscal discipline; science and innovation; health care; education; the Buddhist religion; good governance in commercial activities and strive to maximize the returns on agriculture. The privatization (defined as less than 51% govt. ownership) of basic
infrastructure or network necessary for the people’s livelihood and national security is also prohibited.

6) Amnesty for all. Article 309 states that every action deemed legal under the interim constitution as well as actions taken before or after the enactment of the 2007 constitution would be deemed legal under the
2007 constitution. This supposedly means that any action taken by this government will be considered legal under the 2007 constitution after it is approved and enacted.

2.30 pm: Tulsathit here. Steven's question about "legitimacy" (Will the new charter be truly legitimate if a lot of Thais vote "Yes" reluctantly simply because they want to have an election ASAP?) reflects the whole issue. I can't have a clear-cut or definite answer because the whole thing is so multi-dimensional. In my opinion, I think today's vote is as much about how Thais want the country to move out of this crisis as how they want the highest law of the land to look like.

If you are talking about whether the "Yes" vote triumph will "legitimise" the contents of the draft, I guess it will not. But if you are asking whether a "Yes" vote victory, a large scale one, will legitimise the upcoming election and political process from now on, or whether it will represent public clamouring for a quick return to democracy, I will say a convincing passage of the draft can do that _ to a large extent.

Redandwhite, it seems much of the supervisionary work is in the hands of state mechanism. We have a big black hole because this is not an election, in which case there would have been representatives of political parties manning polling booths to keep their eyes on everything.

I'm sure political parties are keeping a distant watch, but scrutiny won't be as half as intense as when parliamentary seats are at stake.

PollWatch activists are playing a neutral oberserver's role, but they don't have enough manpower to do a thorough job.

Will keep watching for developments on this particular issue.

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2:50 PM:

"The Little Red Riding Hood"

I am Thanong here. You must wonder why those who oppose the draft charter are wearing red as the symbol of dissent. We only wear yellow and blue this year -- not red.

Members of the Democratic Alliance against Dictatorship, who represents remnants of the Thaksin regime, were wearing red shirts while they campaigned furiously against the Surayud government and the military leadership at Sanam Luang. Their key members went to jail over one of these incidents and have ever since got a bail.

Newin Chidchob from Buri Ram also wore a red shirt when he went to vote in the referendum today. So did Chaturon Chaisaeng, who voted in his Chacheongsao Province.

I have two theories to explain this red phenomenon. The first theory is that these people must be fanatic fans of The Little Red Riding Hood (What is Harry Potter?), a bed time's story of an adventure of a little girl who likes to wear red riding hood in the face of a threat from a sly wolf.

The second theory is that red is a favourite of Dr Ming, a key member of the Thai Rak Thai Group. Thaksin flew over from New York to London after losing his power in the aftermath of the September 19 coup. He waved his hand at the aircraft door upon arriving at Heathrow. I could remember vividly that he wore red neck tie. 

I am not sure whether Newin Chidchob, one of the closest aides of Thaksin, has resorted to voodoo and other Khmer black magic to derail the draft charter. But Buri Ram, Newin's home town, is one of the contentious constituencies to watch.

Already, the Election Commission has asked police to take legal action against a former Buri Ram MP of now dissolved Thai Rak Thai party for handing out money and encouraging voters to vote no on the draft charter. Sophon Saram, a former TRT MP, was alleged of giving Bt200 to each voter in Buri Ram to vote against the charter.

But Newin has insisted that the draft charter can only become legitimate if it musters support from at least 22 million voters, out of 45 million elegible voters.

At his hour I am not sure that we'll have that 50 per cent turnout or 22 million voters showing up at the booths or not -- must less 22 million "yes" votes that Than Newin would like to see.

Samak Sundaravej, who is on the verge of taking over as head of the People's Power Party which is a transformation of the Thai Rak Thai Group, has insisted that the referendum would like sail through with a comfortable margin.

"I don't care what the outcome is. But I think it would not be a clear victory," he said.

Meanwhile, Gen Sonthi Boonyaratklin, the coup leader, voted in Lop Buri, his home base. If the charter is rejected, he said he would pick one of his favourite constitutions instead. Yet this possibility is very remote now.

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4:00 PM: I am Thanong here. Voting booths have all been closed by now. However, I have received a report from my friend, who originally came from Nakhon Sawan. Now she is a registered voter in Bangkok. Here is her personal account of the referendum.  

"I woke up early in the Sunday morning, excited by the opportunity to cast the country’s first-ever referandum on the Constitution.
 No, don’t expect me to start the day early. Normally, I reserved my Sunday morning to do the household errands after the long week days.
But I knew that I would never miss the chance to cast the ballot for the charter.

"I have to admit that I didn’t read through chapters by chapters but I would certainly support the charter because I have learned that people would have more opportunity to take part in the decision making process. People can raise the issue to the government.

"Some of my working colleagues said they would vote down the drafted charter because they didn’t want to justify the military government.
I consider myself a democractic advocate. I would spare comments on the military intervention here. But I decided to vote for the drafted charter because it contained what I wanted.

"Although I am a Bangkok resident now, I originally came from Nakhon Sawan. And I knew that how the local communitities would be frequently left out from several decision making process that would have a big impact on the locals. Recently, we had to fight hard to oppose the planned construction of the power plant in the neighbourhood because it would certainly damage our rice farms.

"The new charter should provide us an opportunity to voice our concerns on issues in a systematic way.

After I watched the morning news throughout the Sunday morning, I decided to leave the apartment to cast the vote. I went to the booth in Ramkamhaeang University’s Bang Na Campus around 2:00 PM. Not many people around. I guess most of the Ramkamhaeang students were from provinces. And unlike me, they have yet to transfer their house registration to Bangkok.

"I went to the booth with determination, even though I was originally confused over the mark. A TV ad showed a cross inside a bracket. Days before, I was not sure if I had to mark both the cross mark and the bracket. However, I figured later that the cross sign should be enough.
Officials gave me the paper which showed two blank boxes to cast. I don’t have to repeat which one I crossed. But the problem was that I crossed it too hard on the old wooden table inside the booth that I almost made the big hole from the ballot paper.

"I thus tried to fold it back nicely before slipping it into a box before the officers. I was worried that my ballot might be declared a damaged one. But if they do so, I would protest that next time, the EC should make sure that the surfaces of all tables inside the booth are smooth as silk.
I left the booth a few minutes later, satisfied that I have fulfilled my duty.

"A public bus No. 207 came by and the bus boy yelled out. 'Today half price only Bt4.' Normally, we have to pay Bt8 for Public Bus No. 207. The busboy insisted me to get on the bus. “You have to wait long for another bus. Today, you pay half price but the number of public buses is also cut by half.” 

"But I didn’t want to take non-air con bus. It was a hot day. So I wanted for the Air Con Bus No. 171. As expected, I had to wait for half an hour. But the good thing is that the ticket is only Bt6, a half from normal price of Bt12.

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Exit polls show a victory for the draft charter 

4: 15 PM: As soon as the referendum polls were closed at 4: 00 PM, exit polls were released immediately. It looks like a 65/25 ratio in support of the constitution draft.

Ramkhamhaeng Poll shows 60.19 per cent "yes" votes, as opposed to 39.81 per cent "no" votes. Suan Dusit Poll shows a similar result of 67.94 per cent "yes" to 32.06 per cent "no". And Abac Poll also shows a 70.70 per cent support of the new constitution against 29.30 per cent of opposition.

We can be certain by almost 100 per cent that the draft charter has passed the national referendum!

Is the outcome all the good news?

Not necessarily so. The outcome of the referendum still shows Thailand as a divided nation politically.

By regions, according to Suan Dusit Exit Poll, the South accounts for the largest yes votes of 78 per cent, against 21.83 per cent for no votes. This is followed by the Central region, with 77.73 per cent yes votes, against 22.27 per cent no votes. Bangkok accounts for yes votes of 75.49 per cent against 24.51 per cent no votes.

In the North, the yes votes are about 65.58 per cent, compared with 34.42 per cent no votes.

Look at the figures in the Northeast, which are most interesting. The yes votes are about 57.07 per cent compared with no votes of 42.93 per cent.

This implies that the Thai Rak Thai Group's influence in the Northeast remains pretty strong.

5 pm: Well, like it or not, the results seem to strongly reflect political divide. We will have to wait for the final counts on the Northeast, which is heavily "anti" the charter draft, to see the difference between the numbers of "No" votes and the pro-Thai Rak Thai votes in the annulled general election last year.

Bangkok counts are quite slow. And while the margin is considerable, it's not big enough to give the Democrats extreme confidence for the upcoming election. There are a solid presence of "No" voters in the capital, and, taking into account that a lot of "Yes" voters are not necessarily pro-Democrat, the party's political rivals will keep some realistic hopes of getting a fair share of cake in the upcoming poll.

By the way, results in the North are very interesting. A very close race as of now.

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A big relief for PM

6:10 PM: Gen Surayud Chulnanont, the prime minister, must have felt a big relief after initial outcomes of the referendum shows that a majority Thais have voted for the new charter. He has guided the country this far and his responsibility is about to come to an end over the next four months or so.

He vowed that he would not serve as prime minister for a second time.

He went on TV to tell the Thai public that he believed more than 50 per cent turned out to vote in the national referendum. He also assured that the general election should be held in December, some time after the celebration of His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday.

Surayud believed that there will be several new parties sprouting up to take part in the election and that it would be rather difficult for the ex-Thai Rak Thai to return to power.

 7 pm: We have just finished a news meeting. To recap the situation, the charter draft will pass the referendum comfortably. If our calcalution is correct, we expect the draft to be passed by at least 15 million votes. The best the government can hope for is 16.5 million.

Comfortable? Yes. Good news for the Democrats? No. Results show the Northeast belongs largely to the defunct Thai Rak Thai, and the large numbers of "Yes" votes in Bangkok district are marred by strong showings of "No" votes and the fact that a lot of "Yes" voters just want to "get it over with" and may not necessarily vote for Abhisit Vejjajiva's party in the next poll.

Vote counting is way too slow for my liking. It could become a major issue among anti-draft campaigners. It should have been much faster than election vote counts but that's not the case at present.

7.40 pm: Battle for the North remains very fierce _ the most exciting of all the regions.

I can see election candidates affiliated with the disbanded TRT do quite well in the next election if today's results are any indication.

8.40 pm: Attention in the editorial department has shifted to the broadcast of the Manchester City game against Man United. Man, Thaksin's team have been playing like world beaters. They must have taken inspiration from my predictions that the club will flirt with relegation after 10 games.

9 pm: It seems now that 15 million votes is the best the interim leaders can hope for. The "No" vote camp can garner up to 11 million votes.

So, all in all, it looks pretty much like last year's election results in reverse.

Low turn-out and large numbers of nullified ballots will spoil the interim leaders' party.