• FOS
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  • created : 2008-09-23
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Lalida Wants Justice
and she never got it
Permalink : http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom
Thursday , October 23 , 2008
Are the foreigners living in this country at ease?
Posted by FOS , Reader : 1240 , 15:40:15  
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Yeah, how do they feel? My perception is they feel the same frustration and anger as any Thais in this country. If anyone says “Oh, They’re just foreigners, what have they got to lose”. Then you’re pretty wrong…..you can actually tell by reading comments, blogs in this Blogs site…you can feel their anger over the Chaos created by Politicians, hooligans in this country.

What have they got to lose?

-          They can lose their job just like every Thai in this country if their mother company decided they have enough of Thailand and if they work for local company, there’s even bigger risk of being fired as the cost to keep them here are much higher than the locals.

-          They can have their privilege or allowance cut due to the slowdown of the economy not to mention the Global economy slowdown.

-          For the retire expats…they sit there with their hands tide seeing their pension or their savings devaluate every day.

-          Pension are limited payment, it doesn’t grow, savings can be used up and if they had used it to invest in this country and the crisis continues, not for long they’re going to have an heart attack and that money they got left can go to the hospital expenses.

The truth is. It doesn’t matter if they are Thais or not Thais. The crisis at this moment in this country is causing every single one of us living in here frustrated, worried of not seeing the future, angry at things that’s not been dealt with properly and let our lives back on track. So until someone capable comes out to deal with the matter properly and put our country back to normal or progress, the voice will forever be the same, Thais or not Thais.

Read comment

comment 113
FOS date : 05/11/2008 time : 15.48
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

Now you're learning....
comment 112
Ian date : 05/11/2008 time : 09.36
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Was that a compliment? I thought it was a simple statement of fact. Goes to show one has to be careful what you say to women.
comment 111
FOS date : 04/11/2008 time : 22.46
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

Ian, your compliment makes me a lot happier than a guy telling me I'm beautiful....
comment 110
Ian date : 04/11/2008 time : 21.00
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Lalida, I know you could not look like a Farang, but I think in the right clothes you could be an Arab or similar. Pretend you cannot speak Thai, speak English, go shopping and keep your "Thai" ears and eyes open.
comment 109
FOS date : 04/11/2008 time : 20.46
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

Well Ian, I won't argue with you as I'm not a falang, perhaps when I'm born as a falang next life, I will be able to feel what you feel...
comment 108
Ian date : 04/11/2008 time : 16.55
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Macca, the Thai government either does not understand or does not care about Farang attitudes to money. I have never invested in Thailand more than I could afford to write off as a loss. I will never invest more in this country as long as I do not feel secure in my welcome. I feel sorry for those people who sell up completely in England or whatever and move here, they have become very vulnerable.

Lalida, there is a minority who accept Farangs, by that I mean become true friends, not just "money friends". That minority are people like you, who have travelled outside Thailand or are married to non Thais, who have experienced other cultures.
To many Thais even the people in the next village are foreigners:-)
Macca correctly calls them parochial.
comment 107
macca date : 04/11/2008 time : 16.05

most farangs are smart enough to not invest too much of their money in Thailand, especially since the lessons learned in 1997.

Agreed Ian, Since my first time living in Thailand in early 80s (when Prem was PM dealing with Vietnamese army at the eastern border) I have always felt that money was the main reason for the welcomes I received everywhere I went. Most Thais are very parochial (sp?) and if you're not Thai then you are outsider. Accepted yes, but for the wrong reasons.
comment 106
FOS date : 04/11/2008 time : 14.43
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

Ian,

I wouldn't say that, there are a majority who accepts Falang in this country, you just haven't met them yet....and it's not about rich or poor but simply sharing a culture...
comment 105
Ian date : 04/11/2008 time : 09.13
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Lalida, Farangs are never accepted in Thailand, at best we are tolerated if we are rich. This is not just government policy, it is ingrained in the minds of the people.
comment 104
FOS date : 04/11/2008 time : 02.05
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

Outsider,

You're right and I think they've got lot more to worry about if they have invested their whole life in this country. No matter how bad it is, for us we still have a chance to struggle through, for the Falang, they have only one choice and that is return home and start everything all over again.
comment 103
Outsider date : 04/11/2008 time : 01.10
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/outsider

Working isn't all it is cut out to be benefits notwithstanding, when times are good you are just another farang trying to make a living, when times are bad (like now) you know that you will be one of the first out the door because its always assumed you cost more. So are farangs uneasy? Yes!
comment 102
FOS date : 03/11/2008 time : 14.49
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

I'll buy you dinner if it hits 67.... no joke...
comment 101
Ian date : 03/11/2008 time : 14.41
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Lalida, since it bottomed at 52 it has been climbing slowly day by day and there are more an more noises coming out of Thai financial circles asking for an adjustment downwards of the Baht, it is definitely over valued at the moment. So I think the simple answer is yes.
The worse news is now out for the Pound, it can't get worse. The Thai economy on the other hand is looking very bleak for next year. Predictions of 1 to 2 million unemployed.
So hang in there
comment 100
FOS date : 03/11/2008 time : 14.33
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

Ian,

I did but not 1000 but almost half of it and I'm holding it with the rest that I've got until it jumps up to 62 or 65....you think possible?
comment 99
Ian date : 03/11/2008 time : 14.17
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Lalida, if on the 24th of October (its lowest point) you had bought 1000 UK Pounds it would have cost you around 52,500 Baht. If you then sold that 1000 Pounds today you would get 56,700 Baht.
4,200 Baht profit in less than two weeks
comment 98
peacefulness date : 03/11/2008 time : 10.08
Nationmultimedia.com


.....
comment 97
Ian date : 25/10/2008 time : 15.17
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Lalida 96. These could be reasons, and from an internal citizen's viewpoint the only effect they will notice is a slow rise in imported goods. It is only British citizens abroad who immediately notice the effects.
It will, and is, causing a lot of speculators to forsake the pound and move to the Dollar, he could see this as good riddance to bad rubbish. It will make our economy leaner and more competitive in the long run and perhaps this is his intention. The Dollar is currently recovering fast more as an act of faith than anything else. Thailand is in many ways in a similar position to Britain, so far it has chosen to sit on its hands, I guess time will tell who has made the right judgement.
comment 96
FOS date : 25/10/2008 time : 14.31
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

Ian C94,

Could he be in an effort to increase export, increase tourism or whatever it benefits from it. Purposely pushing the money down for no reason don't seem too logical, No?
comment 95
macca date : 25/10/2008 time : 11.00

Yeah its getting worse, but wasn't easy before anyway, So many problems working in Thailand these days, my last school just made one headache after another for forign teachers and visa situation is mad. We still can't buy a place to live, without big trust in your Thai partner. Cambodia is looking better and better, teaching and building industry have lots of jobs, pity for the poor Cambodian workers... foriegners are buying too much of the good land.
comment 94
Ian date : 25/10/2008 time : 09.20
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

comment 92, As the Financial times wrote in a lead article, The Governor of the Bank of England is deliberately "talking the Pound down". It was starting to recover, so why is he doing this? Either he is mad, a fool, manipulating it for personal reasons, or has some subtle plan which the 'city' cannot guess.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/491d8fca-a05b-11dd-80a0-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
comment 93
Hermano_Lobo date : 24/10/2008 time : 21.08
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/yurivelasquez


The tourist rate to buy Baht in the UK is 48 Baht to the pound. 23/10/08.

With the cost of the flight, the political mess and now this baht rate.

Cape Town is looking good !
comment 92
FOS date : 24/10/2008 time : 20.53
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

Ian,

As you and Manc mentioned, it will rebound sometime right?
comment 91
Ian date : 24/10/2008 time : 19.35
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

rakbkk, it is not that simple, your immigration rules state that for a retirement visa one must have either 800,000 Baht in a Thai bank, or a proven income of 60,000 Baht per month. Now I did hear a rumour that they were going to replace the "either/or" with "and". Now I have the 800,000 in the bank and until a few days ago I had an income of more than 60,000 per month. Now I am under that figure, currently 52,000. So is it an "either/or" or is it an "and"?
As this should make clear it is not the cost of living is my problem, it is simply the exchange rate.
I am wondering how many other foreigners are in this position?
comment 90
rakbkk date : 24/10/2008 time : 19.13

Ian, I hope we wont be saying goodbye to you.. (FYI, good thing is Thailand is best positioned to reverse the inflation we witnessed recently, so your 52 baht will soon go many a mile.. trust me)
comment 89
Ian date : 24/10/2008 time : 18.36
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

rakbkk, well the pound has dropped 2.62 Baht since this morning, the sharpest drop I have ever seen (Thank you Mr King ) it now is 52 to the pound. I think Thailand can say goodbye to any Brit backpackers in the near future. Probably Kiwi, Aussie, Indian and Korean also.
comment 88
sul date : 24/10/2008 time : 18.31
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sul


c87; I think that they are looking at 36/37 Dollar
comment 87
rakbkk date : 24/10/2008 time : 17.31

I heard our govt is trying to fine tune Thai baht in line with currency devaluation all across asia. I will be dancing in the streets if baht goes 42-43 / dollar.
comment 86
Ian date : 24/10/2008 time : 17.14
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Getting back to the original blog. The pound has done a nose dive, so has the Won, the Rupee is close behind as is the New Zealand and Australian dollar. The Rouble, US dollar and Yuan are struggling as is the Euro.
I can see Khaosan road becoming a historical monument soon.
comment 85
rad date : 24/10/2008 time : 14.30

Chris,
I couldn't find that info, speculation was the extend of what I looked at. The only evaluation that I saw was the original.

But, the conflict of interest law didn't speak of gain or loss, just the deed being done.
comment 84
Chris-TH date : 24/10/2008 time : 14.08
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Chris-TH

rad. The Anti Corruption Law was amended (advocated by the current chairman of the AEC, Jaruvan). The law before required an injured party to file the charges, now any party can file a charge.
The history of the land is also interesting. It was bought by a company for 103 M. When the company was "saved" by FIDF, the land was bought for about 2 B as part of the bailout. As far as I know the official valuation of the land at the time of the auction was about 700 m.
comment 83
rad date : 24/10/2008 time : 13.22

Chris,
One of the most interesting things about Thai law, to me, was that the offended agency had to bring the action. Were it not for the AEC, the FIDF would have had to bring the action forward before a case could have been investigated. If the offended agency was a party to the violation, unaware there was a violation or too lazy no charges would be filed.

Then you get to the demonstrators violating a handful of laws and no one did anything about it, most took this in stride and just blamed the demonstrators.

I have never been exposed to a passive form of law enforcement before and find it extremely innefficient and just about totally ineffective.
comment 82
sul date : 24/10/2008 time : 13.06
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sul


C80; this is indeed news to me; anyway I don't read his posts
comment 81
Chris-TH date : 24/10/2008 time : 12.32
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Chris-TH

A bit more from the Constitution:

Section 62: A person shall enjoy the liberty to assemble peacefully and without arms.
Restriction on such liberty under paragraph one shall not be imposed except by virtue
of the law specifically enacted for the case of public assembling and for securing public
convenience in the use of public places or for maintaining peace and order during the
time when the country is in a state of war or when a state of emergency or martial law is
declared.
comment 80
Ian date : 24/10/2008 time : 12.31
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

comment 78, I have known Piset longer than most He and even more so his friends, will always delete what they cannot debate.
comment 79
Chris-TH date : 24/10/2008 time : 11.57
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Chris-TH

A bit from the Constitution:

Section 28: A person can invoke human dignity or exercise his or her rights and
liberties in so far as it is not in violation of rights and liberties of other persons or
contrary to this Constitution or good morals

In the case of the act affecting the rights and liberty under paragraph one, an affected
person, public prosecutor, or other persons acting on behalf of the affected person have
the right to seek court action to stop such an action
comment 78
Chris-TH date : 24/10/2008 time : 11.47
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Chris-TH

Ian, I guess that you were right regarding the Piset blog. My last post was just removed. It was an answer that contained the Court eviction order of Government House, and the 2 remaining charges pending for the PAD leaders, illegal assembly and inciting unrest. Up to 5 and 7 years of jail sentence as maximun penalty. And the deliberation of the Appeal Court:

The Appeals Court decided that although the nine protest leaders committed illegal acts, "it is unreasonable to issue an arrest warrant on insurrection charges, thus the court revokes insurrection charges for all nine suspects."

As well as the charge of insurrection -- which carries the maximum sentence of death or life in prison -- the court also dropped charges of conspiracy to commit insurrection and refusing to disperse.

Two less serious charges of illegal assembly and inciting unrest remain.
comment 77
Ian date : 24/10/2008 time : 11.22
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Chris, I don't know the Thai laws on inheritance, but one of the forces creating small inefficient farms in Europe was that if a farmer had say two sons, each would inherit half of the farm. Thus over the generations farms became smaller and smaller until in the end it could not support a family.
When this stage is reached all the farmer can do is sell his small plot to a rich man.
This in turn created the "Absentee landlord farmer", such absentee farmers are interested in maximising profit with minimum expenditure. They have no understanding of climate factors, irrigation or balanced crop rotation. Thailand is stuck with an agricultural monoculture, you either grow rice, or you grow rice. Agriculturally Thailand needs to not only modernise but also diversify, history is full of the dangers of monoculture.
comment 76
Chris-TH date : 24/10/2008 time : 10.52
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Chris-TH

One of the big problems in the past (now partly corrected) was that the Thai farmers only access to a credit was to use there expected crop as collateral. And only a few crops were accepted. That, as I understand, has been corrected now, but allowing mortgages to be taken out on arable land. That was also about time. A developer could buy up land for almost nothing, and the next day go to his bank with a plan for, e.g., a Golf course, and the land value would increase tremendously and he could take out an enormous mortgage on a pease of land that had no value the day before. Not very fair.
comment 75
Chris-TH date : 24/10/2008 time : 10.37
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Chris-TH

The problem 200 years ago in europe, was that the farmers did not own their plots, they were "lend" out to them by the landowners. Every farmer got just enough land to be able to survive, which prevented them from migrating.
For sure it takes a long time to dismantle such a system. Another problem in europe (especially northern europe) is the climate that gives the farmer a very short time for crops every year.
Thaland also have climate problems, but that is more releated to the water required for rice crops, and the fact that many areas are practically barren outside the rainy season. That is again caused by the focus on rice which prohibits other vegetation from growing on the same plot. So the lack of efficiency is not because the farms are too small, but rather a lack of crop management.
In other areas with the same conditions as the rice crop areas, you see yelds 2-3 times a year on other crops.
comment 74
Chris-TH date : 24/10/2008 time : 10.08
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Chris-TH

Ian the 2000 figure was 49%, so it would be lower by now.
With a more fair distribution on the income from the farmwork, the farmers would be able to become more effetive, the family income would increase, and some household members (that are now in the statistics) would not have to do the work, that for some is not a wish but rather a necessicity?
comment 73
Ian date : 24/10/2008 time : 09.50
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Manc you are correct and not just with industrialisation but many others, railways and roads, health and sanitation, energy and distribution, government and law.
What I find ironic is that along the way we made many mistakes, some we are still suffering from, such as transportation. Yet developing countries like Thailand seem determined to repeat the same mistakes thar we made. It is as if no nation can learn from the past mistakes of others.
comment 72
manc date : 24/10/2008 time : 09.33

Ian, the thing with England is that they were the first, so naturally it took long for them. Look at China, it doesn't need to take 200 years, or Japan and South Korea.
comment 71
Ian date : 24/10/2008 time : 09.30
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

manc, in England it took 200 years. Incidentally, what factories?
GG, this motorbike snatch method is very common in Malaysia and Philippines, not heard of it in Thailand before.
comment 70
manc date : 24/10/2008 time : 09.09

comment 68,

they could move into the city, become factory workers etc. It will have to be a gradual change from agriculture to manufacturing and to services. These things take time and eductaion.
comment 69
GGrass date : 24/10/2008 time : 08.53
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/GGrass

I haven't read the comments yet, but just quickly I want to say,

It's not the loss of money or the investment that we worry.

We worry about our lives. We don't want to die like dogs on the streets.

Just this morning, my father was attacked by 2 guys on a motorcycle while he was riding his bicycle.

He rides his bicycle every morning for exercise.

The men rode behind him and tried to yank the little pouch my dad carries, but didn't succeed, as my dad fell on the ground.

Luckily the theives didn't try too hard... they just sped away.

This kind of incident can easily lead to being shot or stabbed... all for just a small amount of cash...
comment 68
Ian date : 24/10/2008 time : 08.25
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Chris, many small individual farms will always be less efficient than a few large ones. This is a problem with French agriculture. Russia tried to solve it with collectives but it did not work. In the UK these was a gradual transition from small to large farming units. So now there are less than 10% of the population actually working on the land, yet our efficiency is very high and we generate large surpluses, so much so that some farmers get paid not to farm (see the 'set aside' scheme).
The problem in Thailand is I believe around 70% of the population work on the land, if you increase efficiency this figure would drop, what do you do with all the unemployed farm workers?
comment 67
Chris-TH date : 23/10/2008 time : 21.24
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Chris-TH

Well, how do we "Farangs" feel. Just followed the news and it turned out the the King had to choose a different route, because PAD was not able to clear their blockades properly and the route was not considered safe. I wonder how the reaction will be in the press tomorrow? First the Government House, then the Parliament, and now the King!! Well, my guess is that Dr. T. can expect company in London soon???
comment 66
Chris-TH date : 23/10/2008 time : 21.02
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Chris-TH

Nite Ian. A last remark. According to the UN FAO office, Thailand has one of the lowest efficienty rates on the arable land. (and in fact blame Thailand for it, because Thailand should live up to its responsibillity to supply food on the world market. That remark came during discussions to switch from food crops to bio-fuel crops)
comment 65
Ian date : 23/10/2008 time : 20.54
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Chris, well I've always enjoys a nice crisp crust of bread with loads of butter
Now its time for bed
comment 64
Chris-TH date : 23/10/2008 time : 20.51
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Chris-TH

Yes Ian, the way it looks, Thailand can. What I'm pointing at is where should the priorities be? Making Bangkok even more glorious (and inflate the bubble further), or improve the "bread and butter" part of the country?
comment 63
manc date : 23/10/2008 time : 20.43

C59, I try to keep it simple as I can.
comment 62
Ian date : 23/10/2008 time : 20.43
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

comment 59, supply and demand, yes. Another factor is essential versus luxury, different rules apply here.
comment 60. Can Thailand continue to run in the black with the present exchange rates. This must affect the export markets?
comment 61
manc date : 23/10/2008 time : 20.42

Inflation normally occurs when the production of goods is at its maximum (supply cannot rise any further), but the demand for this good is still rising. If this demand keeps rising, price will also keep rising. Therefor intervention is needed to lower this demand. This can be done by increasing the int. rate.

That is why it is important to keep an eye on the grwoth of the economy and the risk of inflation if the demand is rising faster than supply.
comment 60
Chris-TH date : 23/10/2008 time : 20.39
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Chris-TH

Well, I spent 1 year in India. Everybody talk about the emeging economy and some of the wealthiest people in the world. The truth is that they work on their inner market (which is 1+ billion) and making just 1 bht profit per day per citizen adds up to a lot of money. Did you know that Thailand exports more than India in US$? And that Thailand runs black figures on the trade balance (despite all the waste in the cities)?
comment 59
sul date : 23/10/2008 time : 20.38
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sul


c56; demand and supply factors
comment 58
FOS date : 23/10/2008 time : 20.37
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

Thanks Manc/ Ian....kau jai leaw...
comment 57
Ian date : 23/10/2008 time : 20.34
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Lalida, if sales are down because money is tight, you cannot compensate by raising the price. That will reduce sales even more. Instead you lower your price and accept a smaller profit margin. When doing this reduces your margins to zero, you go out of business:-)
comment 56
manc date : 23/10/2008 time : 20.32

FOS, not quite. Given that supply is constant (say 3 pencils) , price rises when there is an increase in demand for a particular good (as there are more people wanting pencils, pencils become more scarce and thus more valuable). However, if demand is low (only one person now require a pencil), the price of pencil will be lower (as pencils are now in abundance).

If the number of consumers is increasing but the amount of pencils is at its maximum, the price will rise because there are more demand for it. Price would not be stable. Think of it this way, things that are scarce normally have more value.
comment 55
FOS date : 23/10/2008 time : 20.30
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

Sorry should read "compensate the lost in profit" instead of "substitutes the gain".
comment 54
Ian date : 23/10/2008 time : 20.27
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

comment 50. Most third world countries were self sufficient for centuries, they had no choice. It is only as they start to develop that consumerism and luxury goods become the new way of life. It is a slippery slope with no turning back. Look at Pattaya, could it ever go back to being a simple self sufficient fishing village. There is no turning back, but it is easy to take the wrong road ahead.
comment 53
manc date : 23/10/2008 time : 20.24

Comment 50, very true.
It is a shame because we have plenty of natural resources, but still lack the means and the systems to make full use out of it.

So this rural revolution, how would you make it possible? We probably should start with educating better techniques and systems to the rurals. It is easier said than done though.
comment 52
FOS date : 23/10/2008 time : 20.23
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

Manc,

You wrote "When interest rates is low, national consumption and spending rise, but at a risk of inflation. "

The first one I can understand that but how can it cost inflation? If there are more consumers, logically the price will be stable as the profit is already there whereas when consumers are low, they have to increase the price to substitutes the gain, isn't that right?
comment 51
Ian date : 23/10/2008 time : 20.21
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

manc, 49. Exactly but the govt. seems to think there is no recession and so no need to lower interest rates. Perhaps they are out of touch with reality.
comment 50
Chris-TH date : 23/10/2008 time : 20.18
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Chris-TH

It is in fact a shame. Thailand is a one of the few countries in the world that could be completely self-sufficient. And be a paradise of its own. But no, the cars must be bigger and more expensive every day, the buildings taller, the luxury goods more plentyfull, and ... And how is this all done? Buying cheap from the country, adding a huge profit, investing the profit and inflate the prices of the assets and wait for the foreingers to bring money into the country to buy the inflated assets. And when the bubble bursts, they start all over again. This is the status quo that Groups like PAD (or rather the people behind) want to maintain. So a rural revolution (read development) was very unwelcome.
comment 49
manc date : 23/10/2008 time : 20.14

So when the economy is in a recession (like now), the govt. can try to remedy or slowdown this recession by lowering int.rates, so that people are encouraged to spend, so that there are more cash flow in the economy.

And if the govt. feels that the economy is growing or booming too fast, they could increase int. rate to slow down the economy. The risk of fast growing economy is mainly inflation, which is where prices of goods are rising too fast.
comment 48
manc date : 23/10/2008 time : 20.10

FOS,

interest rates affect how people choose to spend their money. When int. rates is low, people are not too keen to save because the returns (´Í¡àºÕéÂ) given by bank would be low. Therefore, they will be more likely to spend or invest, because when rates is low people can borrow from bank and pay low interests for their loans.

On the other hand if rates is high, people will be reluctant to take out loan as they have to pay back high interests, and are more willing to save as the returns are higher.

Increasing and decreasing interest rates can affect the level of investment and spending in a country as a whole. When interest rates is low, national consumption and spending rise, but at a risk of inflation.
comment 47
Ian date : 23/10/2008 time : 20.02
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

many foreigners in Thailand, retirees and investors are starting to think Thailand is no longer a good place to be. After you have been here it is difficult to extract oneself easily but I know of several making the first moves in this direction. The day may come when the Thais who like to shout "Farang go home", will be silent, there will be no Farangs to shout at
comment 46
thevoice date : 23/10/2008 time : 20.00
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/the-voice

I tend to agree with what FOS wrote. It affects Thais and foreigners alike who reside and work in the country. I can tell you frankly that many companies are starting to pull out from country slowly but surely. They have wider options now with places like India, China and Vietnam so they don't need to rely on Thailand alone. You know how I know? My uncles are some of them who are now talking to counterparts in those countries and they are offered better pricings. So they are giving up on Thailand for good and amongst their business friends there are already talks to close their factories and relocate elsewhere. They cannot continue in a country where the economy is so unstable more so when the government don't mean what they say. One day can say one thing and the next day they can change their mind. I don't blame the government partly because they are pressurized by those PAD buffalos! And they are the REAL troublemakers! My uncles are all so pissed with them because during Thaksin time they were enjoying good sales and profits. After the coup they all knew it spelt trouble. Luckily for them they started to plan during Surayud time already. Now it is high time for them to execute it. Just watch by next year one by one those well-known companies will say sayonara even if the government seems "stable"!
comment 45
manc date : 23/10/2008 time : 19.56

Global recession takes another hit from the Chinese melanine poisoning as well, as many products were called back, and many has lost confidence in China, who is probably the biggest exporter of manufacturing goods in the World today.

It seems people are very reluctant to spend at the moment, because of all these economics uncertainty. Political unrest just adds more sh..t on top of the pile.
comment 44
FOS date : 23/10/2008 time : 19.56
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

Jesus guys, give me a chance to have a word... (I'm still struggling to understand some of the complicated ones) can somebody explain to me how interest rate affects the market or the economy? Take your time, no rush...finished what you guy's been discussing first...
comment 43
thevoice date : 23/10/2008 time : 19.53
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/the-voice

Manc, your comment #1. The problem in Thailand started even before the slowdown in the economy. It all started with the downfall of Thaksin.
comment 42
sul date : 23/10/2008 time : 19.52
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sul


when interest rates go down, so does the value of the Baht; and I think that this is the main reason why the BOT refuses to reduce the rates;

Inflation? What inflation ? :-)
comment 41
Ian date : 23/10/2008 time : 19.48
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

comment 37, many SME have traditionally operated in the cracks which do not interest big business. SME's put money into the pockets of hundreds of thousands. Big companies like Thai Cement just employ a few thousands in comparison. Thai Cement might earn more for Thailand, but that income is not shared out around the country.
comment 40
manc date : 23/10/2008 time : 19.47

Ian, I know, it is quite scary because economics is all about the behaviour and confidence of the masses.

Sometimes it is good that the majority does not know how the economy really function, because it is easier for the experts to predict their behaviour. I bet you feel manipulated, lol. Oh well, it is the same with politics I guess.
comment 39
Ian date : 23/10/2008 time : 19.43
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

manc, I think at times some people in charge talk too much economics and not enough common sense.
Many people in the world have like me become suddenly poorer and through no fault of our own. Not only do we want revenge but we are starting to teach ourselves how this happened. In the past I have been content to let my money sit in banks and stocks and let other people manage it, not anymore.
comment 38
Chris-TH date : 23/10/2008 time : 19.40
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Chris-TH

Well, then we are back to before the coup. As far as I can see the attempt (as a good businessman would do) was to create an additional consumer market, an inner one. But that requires that the new market has money to spend. That would mean that more of the proceeds from sale of agro products should end up with the producers and not the middlemen (read the big companies). But that is probably also one of the causes for all the political trouble over the last years. Few people in Bangkok would benefit from a more wealty rural population, probably rather suffer.
comment 37
manc date : 23/10/2008 time : 19.40

Comment 34,

I think that's why many PADs supporters are made up of SMEs owners. They're scared of large companies taking control of the market.

And who is the richest businessman around to blame?

But the that's politics eh?
comment 36
manc date : 23/10/2008 time : 19.33

OK, let me try one more time.

The current global situation is not too different from the oil shock in 1973. Normally inflation moves in opposite direction of unemployment. But during the period of oil crisis i.e. extremely high oil prices and low oil supply, unemployment and inflation rises simultaneously. When this happen, one cannot use demand management, because by increasing demand unemployment may be lower, but with the expense of increasing inflation, and vice versa if demand is lowered.

Currently prices of goods are still high, even though oil price has decreased, which can be seen as inflation. The collapse of banks results in many loss of jobs and buisnesses closed down. So we pretty much are in the situation where inflation and unemployment are both at the high level.

The govt. can use fiscal policy (demand management) limitedly because of the opposite effects on inflation and unemployment.

In my opinion I think BOT will lower rates in the near future, maybe just a little, but I think they have no other choice. By lowering int. rates they risk increasing inflation, but they could remedy this by lowring the money supply into the economy. This is all I can concluded at this moent in time.
comment 35
Ian date : 23/10/2008 time : 19.22
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

yuri, go away, you are frightening me
comment 34
Ian date : 23/10/2008 time : 19.21
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Chris, as I see it Thailand's export market is lop sided, Yes there is demand in some areas, but in many other areas particularly those operated by SME's there is a rapidly falling demand. So yet again we see the big companies getting richer and the small ones going bust. Is this what Thailand wants, there is a social aspect to this as well as just an economic one. Do you want to end up with half the country unemployed and the rest living off the fat of the land?
comment 33
Chris-TH date : 23/10/2008 time : 19.16
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Chris-TH

Is a devaluation at this point really required? From an export view not at this point. The main export articles are in shortage on the worldmarket so they buyers are forced to accept the prices that are offered. That does not include the automobile industry, but it is heavily dependent on imports so production costs should in fact drop.
comment 32
Hermano_Lobo date : 23/10/2008 time : 19.11
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/yurivelasquez


If that link doesn't work:-

----------------------------------
Global derivatives now exceed the planet's worth by over ten times...which feels very, very scary...

Occasionally you see a statistic that takes your breath away. You can't quite get your head round it, you just know it's a knockout number!

So on reading that the total ‘value' of global derivatives - financial instruments derived from underlying assets - has now soared to $516 trillion, I tried hard to get a grip on what that means.

516,000,000,000,000 US dollars.

Up by 25% in the six months to June 30 compared with a 12% rise in the second half of 2006, according the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), in the biggest hike seen since the Basel-based Bank started amassing data.

All those noughts make it very easy to see why this is such a gobsmacker.

But then the alarm bells start to ring.

Why? Let me put the derivatives figure into context.

Eminent authorities like the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) quote global GDP (gross domestic product, that is the total value of all goods and services produced) for 2006 at $48 trillion.

For the current year, the IMF has forecast overall annual output increasing by nearly 5%, leaving world GDP standing at just over $50 trillion by end-December. Roughly in line with the total worth of global stock markets.

So the aggregate amount of derivatives sloshing round the system has now escalated to over ten times the sum total of the planet's human endeavours, having grown at its fastest rate in at least nine years during the first half of 2007.

Very scary.

The trail was blazed by a 49% surge in credit default swaps, effectively derivative insurance cover that investors can buy to protect themselves against growing default risks as US mortgage foreclosures hit record levels. Actual cash at risk through credit default swaps rocketed 145% from last year to $721 billion.

Interest rate derivatives grew by 19% and foreign exchange derivatives climbed 21%, with rapid growth in contracts on currencies like the Canadian, Australian and Hong Kong dollars.

Over the three years to June 2007, commodity derivatives have grown six times, chiming with comment from Paris-based think-tank PetroStrategies that speculative trading in oil futures contracts has risen from less than 1% of the total amount traded to more than 32% over the five years to 2006.

Equity market derivatives jumped by 23%, with growth highest in Latin America at 43% and lowest in Japan at 6%.

You want evidence that speculation fuels stock markets?

Over the same six-month period, Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 4.8% while the MSCI Latin America index increased 25%. Interesting!

Anyway, that's enough figures. You get the broad picture.

But who really knows the bottom line?

I don't claim to, and I'd bet that there aren't too many people out there who genuinely understand all the ramifications of all this exposure.

So how can we quantify whether risk is rising in the financial system?

There's no catch-all measure but the cost of replacing all open contracts at today's prices, described by the BIS as ‘gross market value', rose by 15% to $11 trillion by end-June. And that was before the credit crunch hit big-style.

No doubt derivatives apologists will claim that that all these involuted instruments actually diminish risk because they better enable investors to hedge and to balance their bets. That the financial system is so much more sophisticated nowadays that there's really much less chance of anything going wrong.

But would you believe them?

Giant insurer Swiss Re admitted recently having to make a £530m write-down on...er, credit default swaps. Credit derivatives losses have been cropping up all over the banking system, even amongst debt guarantee insurers like US mortgage finance house Freddie Mac.

And we've seen how horribly faulty many of the supposedly infallible hedge fund models have proved to be.

So when I reflect that all these complex financial products, valued at ten times the world's economic worth, are operated by the very same people who have already admitted wasting $40bn in the sub-prime fiasco, with goodness knows how many more billions to follow, I feel quite scared.

Those alarm bells have started ringing very loudly indeed!
comment 31
manc date : 23/10/2008 time : 19.07

Ian, I totally agree with you.

I'm just trying (really hard) to understand why they're not lowering the interest rates and the Thai Baht. Let me try think it through a bit more.
comment 30
Hermano_Lobo date : 23/10/2008 time : 19.06
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/yurivelasquez


While Thailand and the Nation continue to be pathetically obsessed with their Mickey Mouse politics.

A Global Financial nasty is about to hit the fools !

Here is an interesting read:-
http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/investing-strategy/2007/11/23/be-very-afraid.aspx
comment 29
Ian date : 23/10/2008 time : 19.04
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

manc, there are several factors here, tourism is a major earner in Thailand, at the moment it has been badly hit by the political unrest and by the strong baht. Put simply, high end tourists are worried by the unrest, low end tourists are worried by the strong baht.
Now look at profit margins, I have met many westerners with small businesses who come here to buy cheap (price not quality) good to resell in there home countries. With a strong baht they are stopping coming.
Cambodia is becoming very competitive, Thailand is becoming too expensive.
Let me give you a simple example, one of my daughters is coming here to buy gemstones, she makes and sells fashion jewelry. Now the baht is so much stronger I think she will be unable to clear a profit. She is one of many.
I am not an economist, but anyone must realise that if you want to buy foreign goods, particularly the hi-tech goods that Thais love, you have to sell Thai products to these countries to earn the currency to exchange.
Your BOT say Thailand has ample reserves, true, but how long will they last if exports dry up? Are they simply hoping for another international rice crisis? I don't think the rice consuming countries will be caught out that way again.
I am not an expert but I strongly feel that Thailand has not thought this through. Put bluntly it is too busy laughing at America and Europe to notice what is happening behind its back.
comment 28
Sulasno date : 23/10/2008 time : 19.00
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sulasno

C26; unfortunately I was poor in economics especially the various theories :-)
comment 27
Sulasno date : 23/10/2008 time : 18.59
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sulasno

manc; sorry but you are late; most have already pull out :-)
comment 26
manc date : 23/10/2008 time : 18.59

True, I myself believe more in Keynesian economics, so I would naturally try to boost demand. The only reason that I can think of for BOT not wanting to increase demand is the possible risk of further inflation. I guess they're more inclined to monetarist approach.
comment 25
manc date : 23/10/2008 time : 18.53

Sul, you shouldn't have said that, now you have totally destroyed everyone's confidence and they all will withdraw all their money tomorrow
comment 24
Sulasno date : 23/10/2008 time : 18.53
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sulasno

c22; many SMEs are dying due to lack of cashflow; and when the effects from US comes to Thailand, then maybe it is too late;
comment 23
Sulasno date : 23/10/2008 time : 18.50
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sulasno

C21; most countries have guaranteed the banks' deposits except Thailand
comment 22
manc date : 23/10/2008 time : 18.37

This blog is getting very interesting indeed.

If interest rates is lower, there should be an increase in consumption and investment, which would speed up the economic growth and GDP.

Devaluing the Thai Baht would also help growth as Thai export would be much more competitive. The disadvantage here may be in the increase in the prices of imported materials as the Baht weakens, and subsequently the increase in price of consumption goods.

There is also another risk of further inflation, if the interest rate is lower, because although this in itself would encourage spending, more demand may result in rise in prices, and as I've given examples in the case of noodles and snacks, prices tend to rise and rarely come down.

It is indeed depends on ths school of thoughts, I think BOT beleieve that in the long run, lower interest rates now will just result in further inflation as they may believe that the Thai production capacity is near its limit at the moment.
comment 21
Ian date : 23/10/2008 time : 18.33
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Suyl, as far as I can tell Thailand is the only country which has not, All of Europe, the Americas north and south, China, Australia, India, Japan etc etc. Have done so, Thailand does not think it needs to
comment 20
Sulasno date : 23/10/2008 time : 18.20
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sulasno

the Finance Minister wants to reduce interest rates as well :-)
but the BOT's Governor is against it;
Different school of thoughts I suppose
comment 19
Ian date : 23/10/2008 time : 18.12
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Sul, that would please me greatly, but as I hear it this was a suggestion of the Finance Minister and the banks told him not to be a bloody fool. I don't think the banks can see further than the ends of their noses.
comment 18
Sulasno date : 23/10/2008 time : 17.38
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sulasno

well, the Thai experts are thinking of devaluing the Baht to boost exports .................
comment 17
Ian date : 23/10/2008 time : 17.36
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

manc 13. The other way to look at it is if a currency becomes weak because of mismanagement, and steps are in hand to correct this mismanagement. Currency speculators. if they have confidence in these steps, will start to buy that currency in the expectation of it getting stronger. This in itself will help to make it stronger.

It all comes back to confidence.
comment 16
FOS date : 23/10/2008 time : 17.35
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

Ian,

I have them for years (Pocket money) and now wondering which one to sell and keep one currency and I've been watching the rate almost everyday and couldn't understand what's going on. I think I'll keep both for now...Thanks.
comment 15
Ian date : 23/10/2008 time : 17.30
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/anterian36

Lalida, manc is right, it is all to do with confidence. My daughter asked me a similar question, here is my reply to her (Mr King is governor of the Bank of England).

If you have a business and you want to stay in business you do not go around telling people you are nearly bankrupt. A country is like a business, people like to think it is doing well.
The American government has been making optimistic noises, even though they are in a big mess, so the dollar has been slowly recovering.
The British Pound was doing the same until King opened his big mouth and shot the nation in the foot by saying we were in recession and heading for a depression.
The Pound crashed overnight as a result.
When people hear the word recession they think of the 1930's, dole queues, major unemployment, factories closing and homeless people.
In reality recession is now a technical term used by economists, it simply means zero growth for two successive quarters. King is an idiot, a politician would not use a word like recession, it is too emotionally loaded.
Yes, to people like King (economists), we are technically in a recession, but not in the normal , man in the street, meaning of the word.
This is a classic example of why civil servants should keep their mouths shut and leave it to politicians to do the talking.

Lalida, at the moment the Baht looks strong because the dollar and Pound are weak, even though there are all the signs in Thailand of a recession also.

The dollar and the pound will recover, within a year - optimistically, within 3 years - more pessimistically. In the meantime unless Thailand can sort out its internal problems its economy will nose dive.

So if you fancy a pretty safe gamble buy dollars or Pounds now whilst they are very low.
comment 14
FOS date : 23/10/2008 time : 17.29
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

Well, to me it sounds logical Manc....and Thanks.
comment 13
manc date : 23/10/2008 time : 17.27

O.k. my guess is (and this is a complete guess, so if I'm wrong, I'm wrong, both my hands up), given that Euros, pounds and dollars are the most popular currency for speculators, when there are news/info about the strentgth of one of these 3 currencies, people tend to buy a lot of this currency and sell the other two.

It's like you asking me which one should you invest in between Dollars and Pounds, so if I say Dollars, and if you truly believe in me you probably sell your pounds and buy dollars. So if many people believe me, dollar will get stronger while Pounds get weaker. I hope I make some sense.

I'm not an expert in currency speculation, and all this maybe total bs. So do consult other experts in this field
comment 12
FOS date : 23/10/2008 time : 17.20
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

Thanks Manc, but how come USD and Pd never flows the same direction but always the opposite way? One get weak and the other gets strong and V.V. it doesn't go parallel.
comment 11
manc date : 23/10/2008 time : 17.14

FOS,

currency values depend largely on speculations and the central bank/government.

Let's just say that for the past few days speculations and investors confidence are all over the place, hence the fluctuations. One thing I can assure you is that the current values of both pounds and dollars are at their low at the moment (might get even lower), so if you want to invest in currency, it;s probably good to stock up on these now as they'll definitely rise in values in the future.

One important thing about economics, remember that things progress in cycle, up and down, so if you're not in a hurry to make profit here and now, don't panic and you should be o.k.
comment 10
FOS date : 23/10/2008 time : 16.51
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

While you're at it manc,

Can you tell me why the English Pound and US DLR rise up and down like a seasaw...when USD get strong, pound gets weak and V.V. everytime is the same thing.

Also, which currency is better to keep now, Pounds or USD on the long run?
comment 9
FOS date : 23/10/2008 time : 16.48
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

No manc,

You don't bore me, I find it interesting and that's why I'm in this Blog site...I like to read Tawan's and few other's economic Blogs as well, take time for me to understand but it's knowledgeable for me.

I've read Thanong recent Blog but didn't say a thing cause I'm just learning something that I don't have a clue about it.
comment 8
manc date : 23/10/2008 time : 16.42

FOS, yeah I know what you mean, being an economist I just like talking about the economy. Sorry if I bore you.
comment 7
manc date : 23/10/2008 time : 16.41

If you buy instant noodles and snacks, you may have realised that prices has gone up, and the net weight of the product has gone down, this was mainly because of the increase in oil price and subsquently the prices of raw materials. But now that the oil price has gone down, te prices of raw material have decreased too, but I doubt very much that prices of many consumption goods will be decrasesd in line with the decrease of oil prices.
comment 6
FOS date : 23/10/2008 time : 16.37
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

Manc,

I think we're talking about the same thing but different angle...he he.. What my Blog was trying to say is, foreigners or no froeigners, we're all on the same boat......ta....da....
comment 5
manc date : 23/10/2008 time : 16.32

FOS,

Ok, I'm going to keep this simple as I can, or I'll end up writing an economic theses.

The economic recession and inflation we face in this country and around the World derive from two things: consumption and oil prices.

As you may remember, the price of oil shot up like crazy a few months ago, which cause the prices of everything else to go up. This was a pain, because even though now the price of oil has gone down a lot (mainly because of the collapse of U.S. and European banks from the house market bursts, consumption has decreased a lot as many people don't even have enough to pay for their shelter), prices of consumer goods still stay quite high (although the prices of raw materials has decreased).

I don't want to go into details over the exchange rates of Pounds, Dollars and Euros. Let's just say that at the moment people are reluctant to spend because of the collapse of so many of the global financial institutions.

Of course, the PAD didin't help at all when they call their friends at ports and rail networks to go on strike, because without transportation most business ran out of supplies. SO I hope they won't do that again.

My gf who work supplies at Shell nearly went mad when her oil shipping couldn't be delivered to customers.
comment 4
FOS date : 23/10/2008 time : 16.32
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

Sul,

Before 20bth for regular size and 25bth large size now 25 min for regular and 35 for so called large bowl.

Well chicken wing without the little drums stick it's still 5bth a piece in our soi and 12bth with it.
comment 3
Sulasno date : 23/10/2008 time : 16.23
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/sulasno

20 Baht noodles? hee hee

a piece of grilled chicken wing is now 15 Baht
comment 2
FOS date : 23/10/2008 time : 16.11
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/Dom

Manc,

Global economy crisis is one thing but crisis in this country make it worst. What affects theThais it affects the foreigners living in this country............

This place at the moment is no more an economical paradise for them, just look at the falling rate of the Pounds and Eros whatever the cause is...and the inflation of this country.....still find 20bth bowl of noodles?
comment 1
manc date : 23/10/2008 time : 16.00

Ok, easy there FOS, I think the decrease in foreign investment is largely affected by the decline in the World economy as a whole i.e. collapse of many banks in the U.S. and Europe (huge number of job loss from investment banks).

I do agree that things could be much better if the political stalemate is resolved. And let's hope that PAD will dissolve for a while, so that some work can be carried out before they start moaning again.
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